The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects that if active hostilities with the Russian occupiers continue until mid-2024, the harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the country will decrease (under a pessimistic scenario with a blockade of its ports) to 51.5 million tons in 2023 (- 40% compared to 2021), and up to 52.5 million tons in 2024 (-38.7%).
According to the NBU inflation report for October, the key factor in forecasting crop volumes will be the availability of crop exports from Ukrainian seaports.
Thus, under the scenario of the continuation of Russian aggression until mid-2023, it is expected that the total harvest of grains and legumes in 2023 will be 57 million tons, provided Ukraine has full access to agricultural exports through its Black Sea ports, and 51.5 million tons in the event of their blockade by Russia.
Similarly, if the war continues until mid-2024, Ukraine will be able to harvest in 2024 not 62 million tons of cereals and legumes, as in the case of free maritime exports, but only 52.2 million tons due to the blockade of its port infrastructure.
At the same time, the National Bank predicts the harvest of grain and leguminous crops in 2022 at the level of 52.5 million tons.
The bank recalled that in 2019 Ukraine harvested 75.1 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, in 2020 – 64.9 million tons, in 2021 – a record 85.7 million tons since independence.
As reported, by October 28, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 48.81 million tons of main crops from a total area of 13.13 million hectares, or 70% of the previously planned areas.
Ukraine in 2021 harvested a record harvest of grains, legumes and oilseeds of 106 million tons: grains and legumes – 84 million tons, oilseeds – 22.6 million tons.
