The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects a significant increase in grain, oilseeds and vegetable harvests in 2025, in the range of 10-17%.
“As for grains, we expect a 12% increase in harvests, 10% in oilseeds, and 17% in vegetables and potatoes,” said NBU Deputy Governor Sergiy Nikolaychuk at a press briefing on Thursday.
According to him, spring frosts and potentially prolonged periods of drought could negatively affect the yields of certain crops and put some pressure on prices, and this is considered a risk.
At the same time, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, there is no significant damage to crops from frost, the NBU Deputy Governor noted.
“Therefore, I would like to reiterate our thesis that a significant slowdown in food inflation in the second half of the year is one of the important factors behind the overall slowdown in inflation in the second half of the year. And, in fact, this is our baseline scenario,” Mr. Nikolaychuk emphasized.
According to him, after the prices for agricultural products rose quite significantly last year, the potential for further price increases, even if negative risks materialize, will be limited by the relevant imports.
The NBU deputy governor added that the current harvest forecast is not much different from the one published in January.
Mr. Nikolaychuk emphasized that according to the operational data coming from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, no serious damage to crops due to frost has been recorded so far.
As reported, this year’s planting season is 20.6% behind last year’s. As of April 11, Ukraine sowed more than 1 million hectares of spring grains and legumes.
