Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced sales of dollars on the interbank market by $198.3 million, or 18.1%, to $895.3 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the NBU, in the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of buying and selling foreign currency by legal entities decreased to $96.0 million from $100.2 million in the same period a week earlier and totaled $384.1 million.
The negative balance on the FX market for households increased to $43.6 million from $30.9 million the week before last, and on all days, sales of non-cash foreign currency exceeded purchases.
The official hryvnia/dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 42.0567 UAH/$1, weakened to 42.2812 UAH/$1 over three days, but ended the week at 42.2721 UAH/$1.
On the cash market, the dollar exchange rate last week followed the trajectory of the official rate, and in general, the dollar rose by about 17 kopecks over the week: buying – to 42.12 UAH/$1, and selling – to 42.49 UAH/$1.
At the same time, due to the rise in the euro against the dollar in the global market after the Fed’s decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps), the hryvnia fell more significantly against the euro last week. Thus, the official exchange rate dropped to 49.4678 UAH/$1 from 48.9961 UAH/$1 a week earlier.
“Last week, the currency deficit remained high without any significant changes compared to the first week of December. Despite this, the NBU slightly reduced its interventions, which hints at a temporary reduction of imbalances in the interbank market,” commented the ICU investment group.
According to its experts, the NBU is concerned about the uncertain prospects for international support next year, as there is no final decision on the EU’s reparations loan yet, so the NBU’s future policy will depend on the EU’s decision on the reparations loan.
“In our opinion, it will be positive. Therefore, we expect the NBU to continue to adhere to a conservative exchange rate policy, allowing only a moderate depreciation of the hryvnia both by the end of this year and throughout 2026,” ICU believes.
Analysts of KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market (Liberty Finance LLC), noted that in December the hryvnia was supported by several important factors, one of the most important being the increase in international reserves to a new historical high of $54.75 billion.
“So far, the situation is such that the hryvnia should not experience any sharp jumps, but in the future (as early as 2026), the hryvnia exchange rate will be under pressure from a number of factors, including, in particular, possible difficulties with the receipt of foreign aid (and a decrease in the amount of such aid),” the company said.
According to their short-term forecast for one to two weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate will remain in the basic range of 42.15-42.50 UAH/$1 with possible multidirectional fluctuations, while in the medium term, for two to three months, KYT Group expects the exchange rate to be 42.25-42.95 UAH/$1.
“In Ukraine, the hryvnia will be influenced by several key factors: the continuation of hostilities, the difficult situation in the energy sector, the decline in economic activity, and the stability of financial assistance from creditors and partners,” the company said, adding that the long-term realistic benchmark is 43.4-44.90 UAH/$1 by mid-2026.
As for the euro, according to the company’s experts, if the Fed cuts the rate by 25 bps again in January, the euro will strengthen more actively, and its fluctuations in the Ukrainian market may reach the level of 50.20-53.20 UAH/€1.
Source: https://bank.gov.ua/ua/markets
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1128490.html
