The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved its estimate of the electricity deficit in Ukraine this year from 4% to 3% and next year from 2% to 1% due to rapid repairs and development of distributed generation.
“Rapid repairs of shunting generation and energy infrastructure, development of distributed electricity generation and renewable energy capacities against the background of maintaining sustainable electricity imports allow us to improve the estimate of the electricity deficit over the forecast horizon,” the NBU states in its April 2025 Inflation Report, comparing it with the January report.
According to the NBU, the deficit will almost disappear in 2027 (1%).
Thus, according to the report, the impact of energy supply restrictions on real GDP will decrease, and annual electricity imports in 2025-2027 will amount to about $0.5 billion.
As reported, at the end of 2024, the Ministry of Energy reported that the total capacity of distributed gas-fired generation units connected in Ukraine last year amounted to 967 MW, of which 835 MW were commissioned in 2024.
