The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) last week, almost in the absence of currency purchases, reduced its sale on the interbank market by $213.5 million, or 24.4% – to $661.1 million. According to the National Bank’s data on its website, the cash market recorded its first surplus of $2.8 million over the weekend and Monday, but in the following days dollar purchases again exceeded sales by $20-33 million daily.
The official hryvnia exchange rate fell slightly over the week – from 41.6409 UAH/$1 to 41.7341 UAH/$1, while due to the weakening of the dollar on the international market, the euro rose in price more strongly – from 48.7823 UAH/EUR1 to 49.1210 UAH/EUR1, and on July 2 reached a new record – 49.4093 UAH/EUR1.
In the cash market, the dollar appreciated by only 2 copecks on the results of the week. – to 41.6/41.7 UAH/$1, while the euro appreciated by up to 10 copecks. – 49.35/49.53 UAH/EUR1.
“Short-term (1-3 weeks) is likely to fluctuate within the range of 41.30-42.00 UAH/$1 without going beyond 42.10 UAH/$ in the absence of external shocks or short-term situational surges”, – predict experts of a major participant of the cash currency exchange market “KYT Group”.
In their opinion, medium-term (2-4 months) return to the levels of UAH 42.00-42.50/$1 is possible in case of strengthening of import demand, increase of budget payments or realization of risks with financing or change of expectations and moods of the population and market operators.
As for the euro, KYT Group believes that in the short term, taking into account external factors and stable demand, the euro exchange rate may head towards the corridor of UAH 49.00-49.50/EUR1 with a possible breakthrough to UAH 50.00/EUR1, if it receives additional external drivers.
Medium-term, the European currency is likely to go above UAH 50.00/EUR1, especially if the euro remains at a global high and the current international drivers of its growth are maintained.
“Keep your focus on the euro. If your business model provides for expenses or revenues in euro, it is worthwhile to revise the structure of currency risk already now, to put a margin of safety in contracts or to test possible scenarios of the exchange rate breakout above UAH 50/EUR1”, – the company believes.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1083979.html
