According to Interfax-Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its interventions in the interbank market last week by $307.0 million, or 29.6%, to $1.3444 billion, marking the largest weekly volume of interventions since the end of 2024, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to data from the National Bank, over the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of currency purchases and sales by legal entities increased to $170.9 million from $97.1 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling $683.4 million.
At the same time, in the retail foreign exchange market from Saturday to Thursday, the negative balance rose to $57.9 million from $38.5 million the week before last.
The official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate strengthened from 44.1381 UAH/$1 at the start of last week to 43.9617 UAH/$1 by the end of the week.
The same trend was observed in the cash market, where the hryvnia exchange rate strengthened over the past week: the buying rate by 17 kopecks to 43.86 UAH/$1, and the selling rate by 19 kopecks to 44.24 UAH/$1.
Analysts at KYT Group, a major player in the cash currency exchange market (Liberty-Finance LLC), note that in the first half of March, the hryvnia continued to depreciate, and turbulence in the currency market intensified under the influence of both external and internal factors.
Among these factors, they cite hostilities in the Middle East, rising demand for the dollar and euro in Ukraine, as well as the cautious actions of the National Bank, which is balancing between currency demand and the need to maintain sufficient international reserves.
In their view, the strengthening of the dollar is creating additional pressure on the hryvnia in the global market: the DXY index has gained 3.33% over the past month, while the euro is weakening amid rising energy prices and Europe’s high dependence on fuel imports.
Analysts note that in mid-March, the EUR/USD pair fell to 1.1445, and the price of Brent exceeded $101.4 per barrel, which boosted demand for foreign currency in the Ukrainian market as well.
In the domestic context, they note an increase in demand for the currency in both the non-cash and cash segments, particularly due to purchases by importers of energy equipment and fuel.
At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves, according to preliminary data cited in the review, decreased by 5% as of March 1, 2026, to $54.75 billion, and the NBU conducted several operations in March to exchange banks’ non-cash currency for cash to replenish cash reserves and prevent a cash currency shortage.
Regarding the dollar, KYT Group notes that in mid-March, the cash dollar buying rate reached 43.80–44.10 UAH/$1, and the selling rate—44.35–44.60 UAH/$1, while the spread between buying and selling widened to 0.45–0.60 UAH/$1.
According to their forecast, in the medium term (2–3 months), the rate is expected to be 44.30–44.90 UAH/$1, and in the long term (6+ months), the baseline scenario calls for a devaluation of the hryvnia to 44.4–45.5 UAH/$1.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1153678.html
currency_interventions, кит_group
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