According to Interfax-Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its interventions in the interbank market last week by $307.0 million, or 29.6%, to $1.3444 billion, marking the largest weekly volume of interventions since the end of 2024, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to data from the National Bank, over the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of currency purchases and sales by legal entities increased to $170.9 million from $97.1 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling $683.4 million.
At the same time, in the retail foreign exchange market from Saturday to Thursday, the negative balance rose to $57.9 million from $38.5 million the week before last.
The official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate strengthened from 44.1381 UAH/$1 at the start of last week to 43.9617 UAH/$1 by the end of the week.
The same trend was observed in the cash market, where the hryvnia exchange rate strengthened over the past week: the buying rate by 17 kopecks to 43.86 UAH/$1, and the selling rate by 19 kopecks to 44.24 UAH/$1.
Analysts at KYT Group, a major player in the cash currency exchange market (Liberty-Finance LLC), note that in the first half of March, the hryvnia continued to depreciate, and turbulence in the currency market intensified under the influence of both external and internal factors.
Among these factors, they cite hostilities in the Middle East, rising demand for the dollar and euro in Ukraine, as well as the cautious actions of the National Bank, which is balancing between currency demand and the need to maintain sufficient international reserves.
In their view, the strengthening of the dollar is creating additional pressure on the hryvnia in the global market: the DXY index has gained 3.33% over the past month, while the euro is weakening amid rising energy prices and Europe’s high dependence on fuel imports.
Analysts note that in mid-March, the EUR/USD pair fell to 1.1445, and the price of Brent exceeded $101.4 per barrel, which boosted demand for foreign currency in the Ukrainian market as well.
In the domestic context, they note an increase in demand for the currency in both the non-cash and cash segments, particularly due to purchases by importers of energy equipment and fuel.
At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves, according to preliminary data cited in the review, decreased by 5% as of March 1, 2026, to $54.75 billion, and the NBU conducted several operations in March to exchange banks’ non-cash currency for cash to replenish cash reserves and prevent a cash currency shortage.
Regarding the dollar, KYT Group notes that in mid-March, the cash dollar buying rate reached 43.80–44.10 UAH/$1, and the selling rate—44.35–44.60 UAH/$1, while the spread between buying and selling widened to 0.45–0.60 UAH/$1.
According to their forecast, in the medium term (2–3 months), the rate is expected to be 44.30–44.90 UAH/$1, and in the long term (6+ months), the baseline scenario calls for a devaluation of the hryvnia to 44.4–45.5 UAH/$1.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1153678.html
In January 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced foreign exchange interventions by $14 million, or 0.4%, compared to January last year, to $3 billion 375.5 million, while the official hryvnia exchange rate depreciated against the dollar by 2.5%, or UAH 1.2.
At the same time, in the last week of January, the NBU reduced dollar sales on the interbank market by $202.1 million, or 19%, to $859.5 million.
According to the National Bank, in the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of buying and selling foreign currency by legal entities decreased to $95.5 million from $137.6 million in the same period a week earlier and totaled $381.8 million.
The negative balance in the market of foreign exchange transactions of households for Saturday-Thursday also decreased to $34.0 million from $36.4 million the week before last, with sales of non-cash currency exceeding purchases on all days.
The official hryvnia/dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 43.1391 UAH/$1, strengthened to 42.7689 UAH/$1 over three days and ended the week at 42.8483 UAH/$1.
In the cash market, the dollar’s exchange rate last week followed the trajectory of the official rate. In total, the dollar fell by about 27 kopecks during this period: buying – to 42.70 UAH/$1, selling – to 43.07 UAH/$1.
According to analysts of KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market (Liberty Finance LLC), the key event on the international market in the second half of January was the Fed meeting: the regulator, as expected by the markets, left the base rate unchanged, actually taking a break after three consecutive cuts in 2025.
Against this backdrop, the dollar weakened against the euro throughout the month (EUR/USD reached 1.2038, followed by a pullback), while US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric pushed investors to defensive assets, which supported the euro.
In the domestic market, analysts believe that the NBU will continue its policy of managed exchange rate flexibility, while at the same time expecting that the projected amount of foreign aid will be sufficient to finance the budget deficit without issuing new debt and maintain international reserves at a level sufficient to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market. An additional factor for market expectations was the central bank’s decision to start an interest rate easing cycle and cut the key policy rate from 15.5% to 15% starting January 30, 2026.
According to KYT Group’s forecasts, in the next one to two weeks, the dollar will remain in the basic range of 42.9-43.4 UAH/$1 with the risk of fluctuations towards a weaker hryvnia, in the medium term of two to three months – 43.50-44.00 UAH/$1, while in the first half of 2026, the benchmark remains
43.5-44.9 UAH/$1.
Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced sales of dollars on the interbank market by $21.7 million, or 3.8%, to $551.3 million, which is the same as the week before last, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the NBU, in the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of buying and selling foreign currency by legal entities rose to $78.9 million from $65.6 million in the same period a week earlier and totaled $315.8 million.
The negative balance on the FX market for households also increased to $68.2 million from $44.3 million the week before, although it was declining over the course of the week, from $25.7 million on Monday to $14.0 million on Thursday.
This result was partly due to the high volume of non-cash foreign currency purchases on September 1, which amounted to $32.9 million.
The NBU started publishing weekend foreign exchange statistics separately, whereas previously it combined them with Monday data.
The official hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar weakened from 41.3203 UAH/$1 to 41.3722 UAH/$1 early last week, but on Friday the National Bank strengthened the national currency to 41.2199 UAH/$1. The last time the hryvnia was so expensive was in the third decade of August, and before that – in April of this year.
On the cash market, the dollar also fell by about 6-8 kopecks over the past week: buying to 41.21 UAH/$1, and selling to about 41.30 UAH/$1.
“Domestic demand remains restrained: importers are working as planned, the population is mainly focused on the euro, and the NBU is maintaining the balance without sharp movements. The general characteristic of market behavior is a smooth decline (of the dollar to hryvnia exchange rate) without sharp impulses,” experts of KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market, said.
They added that the spread between buying and selling is stable in a narrow corridor of UAH 0.40-0.50, and market rates remain equidistant from the official one. This indicates a lack of nervousness and support for the “exchange rate consensus” between the market and the regulator.
According to KYT Group’s short-term forecast for the period until mid-September, the exchange rate will remain in the basic range of UAH 41.20-41.70/$1, while the medium-term forecast for 2-3 months envisages a range of UAH 41.50-42.20/$1.
“The Fed’s likely September decision could give momentum in either direction: if the rate is cut, the hryvnia could strengthen in the short term and the dollar could fall to the lower boundary; if it is maintained, quotes will remain closer to the upper boundary,” experts say.
In the long term (6+ months), they maintain the scenario of a smooth devaluation: the expected benchmark is 43.00-44.50 UAH/$1, provided that foreign aid is stable and the NBU’s policy is controlled.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) last week increased its sale on the interbank market by $138.7m, or 23.7%, to $724.0m in the absence of currency purchases, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
The data, which the regulator managed to release during this time, shows that the balance was negative all last week and fluctuated from $0.4m on Monday to $13.7m on Tuesday, $14.1m on Wednesday and $11.9m on Thursday.
The official hryvnia exchange rate rose from 41.4466 UAH/$1 at the beginning of the week to 41.8335 UAH/$1 at the end of the week.
In the cash market, the hryvnia exchange rate changed at the end of the week, with buying up around 41.71 UAH/$1 and selling up around 41.80 UAH/$1.
“The US dollar exchange rate remains in a controlled range, showing minimal changes within the so-called floating stability. This was possible due to the systemic influence of key factors: high currency reserves, restrained demand from the population, moderate business activity and projected volumes of currency supply,” experts of a major participant of the cash currency exchange market described the situation. Read more at the link – KYT Group.
According to analysts, in the next two to four weeks the dollar exchange rate is likely to remain stable within the range of UAH 41.10-41.80/$1, without significant fluctuations in the spread.
In the medium term, within two to four months, the dollar may strengthen to UAH 42.00-42.50/$1 if imports intensify, budget expenditures increase or inflation accelerates.
