Ukraine is close to reaching a deal with the International Monetary Fund to receive the next $900 million disbursement of its $15.6 billion loan, a boost to the war-torn country’s budget and a vote of confidence as U.S. aid remains fragile, Bloomberg reported Wednesday.
According to the agency, Ukraine expects to reach an agreement with IMF staff as early as Thursday, according to officials with knowledge of the talks who asked not to be identified because the deal is not yet finalized. The agreement must be ratified by the IMF’s executive board, which is almost always done without problems.
A team of IMF staff led by IMF Chief of Mission Gavin Gray, which has been assessing whether Ukraine has met the conditions for the loan, is to complete its work and make a statement Thursday in Washington, officials said. According to one of the officials, it may take several more days to finalize the agreement at the staff level, Bloomberg reports.
As reported earlier, the IMF mission and Ukrainian authorities held talks in Warsaw and online on the third revision of the EFF Extended Fund Facility program. The four-year EFF program was approved on March 31, 2023. The first tranche of USD 2.7 billion was disbursed in early April, the second and third tranches of SDR 664 million (approximately USD 881-890 million at the then exchange rate) in early July and mid-December.
The program’s planned schedule provides for the disbursement of another tranche to Ukraine at the end of February 2024 based on the results of the third review, when the fulfillment of obligations as of the end of December 2023 is assessed. Three more tranches are envisaged for 2024: SDR1.670 billion ($2.226 billion) in mid-June, followed by SDR835 million ($1,113 million) in early September and December. Two tranches are planned for 2025: SDR684 million ($912 million) in early March and late August, followed by the last three tranches of SDR966 million ($1.288 billion).
The EU Council announced on Wednesday that the Committee of Permanent Representatives (Coreper) of the European Union has agreed on the Council’s negotiating mandate to extend for another year the suspension of import duties and quotas on Ukrainian and Moldovan exports to the EU.
“By agreeing to renew these measures, we demonstrate our continued support for Ukraine and Moldova, while protecting the internal market from excessive increases in imports of certain sensitive agricultural products,” commented Aja Labib, Foreign Minister of Belgium, which holds the EU Council presidency, on the agreement of the Permanent Representatives.
The Council communiqué explains that the two legislative proposals that member states will discuss with the European Parliament are aimed at extending the suspension of import duties and quotas for another year: from June 6, 2024 to June 5, 2025 for Ukraine and from July 25, 2024 to July 24, 2025 for Moldova – provided that “the protection of sensitive agricultural products is simultaneously enhanced by strengthening safeguards” already included in the relevant existing regulations.
Brussels explains that “by renewing these measures, the EU will continue to support and stimulate trade flows from Ukraine to the EU and the rest of the world, and will contribute to creating conditions for the expansion of economic and trade relations leading to the gradual integration of Ukraine into the EU’s internal structure.”
As for Moldova, these measures are intended to “help preserve the conditions necessary to enable Moldova to continue its trade relations with the EU and with the rest of the world through the EU,” the EU Council said.
Export of important goods from Ukraine in Jan-Oct 2023
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
The majority of Ukrainian refugees and internally displaced persons surveyed (65% and 72% respectively) still express a desire to return home one day, but their share has decreased.
This is evidenced by the study of the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) “Life in Waiting: Intentions and Prospects of Refugees, Refugee-Repatriates and IDPs from Ukraine”, the results of which are published on its website.
According to UN data, the share of refugees who plan or hope to return to Ukraine in the future has decreased compared to last year (from 77% to 65%), but the share of those who are undecided about returning has increased (from 18% to 24%), as well as those who have no hope of returning (from 5% to 11%). A similar trend is observed among internally displaced persons.
According to the report on the results of the survey, the interviewed IDPs predominantly named the danger in Ukraine as the main factor hindering their return. Other problems were the lack of economic opportunities and housing. A significant part of the interviewed Ukrainian refugees (about 59%) indicated that they may be forced to return home if they continue to face problems in the host countries, mainly related to work opportunities and legal status.
It is also noted that more refugees are now making short-term visits to Ukraine – almost 50% compared to 39% last year, mainly to visit family members but also to check on their property.
The UN believes that such visits may eventually contribute to fully informed decisions on long-term return when conditions are conducive.
The UN recalls that there are now nearly 6.5 million refugees from Ukraine seeking asylum around the world and nearly 3.7 million people remain internally displaced.
UNHCR’s report is based on interviews conducted between January and February 2024 with nearly 4,000 refugee households in Europe, 4,800 internally displaced households in Ukraine and about 1,100 refugee households returning to Ukraine (total sample of over 9,900 households).
Presidential Press Secretary Serhiy Nikiforov has announced a major conference on February 25 on the future path of Ukraine, which will be attended by “all top speakers from the government, the military and political leadership, and the Prime Minister.”
“On February 25, we are preparing something special. It will be a conference, an honest conversation about our path forward, our path in 2024. All the top speakers from the government, the military and political leadership, the Prime Minister, the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, the Security Service, the GUR, the Ministry of Strategic Industries will be there. The first lady will be there, the Ministry of Infrastructure, the Presidential Office and, of course, the president himself,” said presidential spokesman Sergei Nikiforov on the air of a nationwide telethon on Wednesday evening.
“It will be an honest conversation about our way forward, our way in 2024,” Nikiforov said.
He said that “we will talk about various aspects of Ukraine’s future, including the future of the army and its development, the introduction of modern technologies, our integration into the EU and NATO, what has already been done, security guarantees. We will talk about mental and physical health. We will talk about business support. We will talk about many aspects of the country’s life…”
“Following this conference, the President of Ukraine will take the floor and hold a press conference. He will outline his vision of the topics and answer the main questions,” Nikiforov added.
Former US President Donald Trump has named six people who could become his vice presidential candidates in his bid for the presidency, Fox News reported on Wednesday.
“To be honest, all of these people are good. They’re good, they’re reliable,” he said on Tuesday, speaking about the people on his shortlist in an interview with the TV channel.
The list includes three of Trump’s former rivals in the Republican primaries – Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Senator Tim Scott and entrepreneur Vivek Ramasavamy. Trump also named South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, House member Byron Donalds, and former House member Tulsi Gabbard, who left the Democratic Party in 2022, as potential vice presidential candidates.
Fox News notes that Trump often makes such statements without preparation, and this list may not be entirely accurate. In particular, the TV channel doubts that DeSantis can become a candidate for vice president, as the politicians have repeatedly criticized each other over the past year.
The internal party elections will end in June. The Republican Party convention, which will announce the presidential candidate, will be held in July.
The US presidential election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
