Oil prices are falling on Wednesday amid a general decline in risk appetite and a stronger US dollar, despite the ongoing tensions in the Red Sea region.
The cost of March futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:15 a.m. is $77.66 per barrel, which is $0.63 (0.8%) lower than at the close of the previous trading. On Tuesday, these contracts rose by $0.14 (0.2%) to $78.29 per barrel.
Futures for WTI for February in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have fallen by $0.65 (0.9%) to $71.75 per barrel by this time. As a result of previous trading, the value of these contracts fell by $0.28 (0.4%) to $72.4 per barrel.
Traders seem to be “more concerned about a lack of demand than a shortage of supply at the moment,” said Colin Sizinski, portfolio manager at SIA Wealth Management, as quoted by Market Watch.
The sharp decline in the Empire State Manufacturing index in January “signals a slowdown in US growth, and the Chinese economy is a major concern,” the expert said.
China’s GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 accelerated to 5.2% year-on-year from 4.9% in October-December, but was worse than market expectations (+5.3%).
On Wednesday, the dollar index DXY is adding 0.1%, having risen by 0.6% the day before.
Forecast of unemployment rate in Ukraine according to methodology of international labor organization until 2025
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
On the margins of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has held a meeting with Prime Minister of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam Pham Minh Chinh.
The head of state thanked Vietnam for supporting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, as well as for humanitarian aid to our country, the press service of the President of Ukraine reported.
“The interlocutors noted the importance of intensifying bilateral relations, as Ukraine and Vietnam are united by long-standing ties. The President called on Vietnam to support the implementation of the points of the Ukrainian peace formula,” – noted in the message.
Volodymyr Zelensky and Pham Minh Chinh discussed the possibility of activating bilateral contacts between Ukraine and Vietnam at different levels.
DAVOS, Pham Minh Chinh, VIETNAM, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
Since the beginning of January, the demand prices for feed barley continue to grow in Ukraine, according to APK-Inform, the information and analytical agency.
According to the agency, the prices are supported by the insufficient number of offers on the market due to the restraint of sales by farmers, the corresponding dynamics in the neighboring markets, the increased purchases by traders, and the increase in prices for this grain on the export market.
According to analysts, demand prices for feed barley have increased by 100-300 UAH/ton since the beginning of 2024. As of January 16, they are fixed in the range of 4600-6000 UAH/ton CPT.
The fertilizer market in Ukraine will change dramatically in 2024 due to the introduction of customs checks on the origin of imported goods and the forced transition to the use of domestic products, which will not reduce farmers’ costs, Infoindustry news agency reported.
“November and December were actually a failure for imports. We imported as much fertilizer in two months as in October 2023. Fertilizer consumption is skewed towards nitrogen fertilizers. (…) In 2023, the consumption of nitrogen fertilizers to all other types of fertilizers was an unprecedented 3:1. In total, Ukraine used 4.35 million tons of fertilizers in 2023,” the analysts stated.
They pointed to a drop in imports of complex fertilizers through ports in the second half of 2023. In November-December, imports of complex and individual types of nitrogen fertilizers almost stopped after the euro’s surge and difficulties at the border, the industry agency explained.
Commenting on the situation at the border during the import of fertilizers, the experts reminded that on January 4, 2024, all border customs began checking all types of cargo with fertilizers to analyze and determine their country of origin. The reason for such measures, analysts say, is the oversaturation of the markets of all countries around Ukraine with Russian fertilizers.
“Unfortunately, the Ukrainian farmer will now have to wait 10-14 days for the results of fertilizer analysis in addition to buying expensive imported fertilizers, which include all types of NPK (imports). Imports become even less affordable at the beginning of the year. There is less than a month left before the start of the season,” InfoIndustry noted.
At the same time, analysts emphasized that there is good news on the domestic market: fertilizer stocks of traders and producers reached 80-85% of the market needs at the beginning of the season, taking into account current demand.
In addition, according to the agency, the state-owned Sumykhimprom changed its board in early 2024, which gives us hope for a change in policy and possibly the range of fertilizers the plant will be able to offer to the market in the spring.
“In any case, farmers will not have to expect a decline in fertilizer prices, even if the global market collapses or all Ukrainian ports open for imports,” analysts predict, adding that by the end of March, all market scenarios are already known, and it is now important that Ukrainian grain exports do not stop.
Kokhavyno Paper Mill (KBF, Lviv region), which produces sanitary paper products, increased its production by 18% in 2023 compared to 2022, to UAH 1 billion 151.2 million, according to statistics from Ukrpapir Association.
According to the data provided to Interfax-Ukraine, in physical terms, the production of paper base for sanitary products increased by 2.8% to 41.7 thousand tons. In particular, in December, its output increased by 3% to 3.6 thousand tons by December 2022.
Last year, the production of toilet paper in rolls increased by 4.5% to 138 million units. KBF retained second place in terms of its output after Kyiv pulp and paper mill (259.5 million units).
As reported, in October, Kokhava Pulp and Paper Mill commissioned a paper machine with an estimated capacity of 25 thousand tons per year to produce pulp base paper (previously it produced only waste paper-based products), creating up to 200 new jobs.
To organize such production in 2021, the pulp mill attracted an EBRD loan of EUR 13.8 million.
Operating since 1939, the Kokhavynske Paper Mill produces the base paper for sanitary and hygiene products, as well as toilet paper and paper towels. Before the new machine was put into operation, it had two paper machines with a total capacity of 40 thousand tons of base paper per year.
As reported, in 2022, KBF produced products worth UAH 975.3 million, up 44.8% year-on-year. Net profit decreased by 12.7% to UAH 52.4 million.
