In 2024, Ukraine will be able to harvest 50-60 million tons of major crops, while grain exports will amount to 35-40 million tons, predicts Sergiy Feofilov, founder of UkrAgroConsult, an information and analytical company.
“The crop structure will be shaped by the profitability of a particular crop. Current trends show that priority will be given to oilseeds, soybeans are particularly promising, and sugar beet is the most promising crop,” UkrAgroConsult quoted him as saying.
According to the CEO of the agency, the key factors in agriculture in 2024 will be security, logistics, profitability and international cooperation.
“The process of Ukraine’s cooperation with the EU countries has significantly accelerated in the context of the war. It will also be extremely important to continue creating mechanisms that would further increase the benefits of cooperation for all participants. I would also like to emphasize the Ukrainian land market, which continues to develop despite the difficulties of wartime,” he said.
Mr. Feofiolov reminded that in 2023, the main source of financing for the agricultural sector was the Ukrainian farmer’s own resources. Limited logistics led to a decrease in producer margins. In 2022 and 2023, the profitability of agricultural enterprises declined sharply, so the financial reserves of the pre-war harvest years of 2020 and 2021 allowed them to survive.
The expert noted that the yields of most major crops were close to record highs not only due to the weather factor, but also with the help of Ukrainian specialists who quickly adapted technologies to military challenges. This allowed Ukraine to grow 22 million tons of wheat in 2023.
Mr. Feofilov also noted that UkrAgroConsult’s forecast of last year’s growing role of the processing sector has been confirmed. This was especially noticeable in the oilseed industry. Never before has the country processed so much rapeseed and soybeans,” he emphasized.
Among the main achievements of the Ukrainian agricultural sector in 2023, the CEO of UkrAgroConsult named the efficient operation of logistics corridors – both the grain corridor until mid-July and the new humanitarian corridor, which resumed operations in October 2023. Investments in new logistics chains have made it possible to increase the role of the Danube ports and export grain in transit through the port of Constanta. Efficient maritime and Danube logistics have reduced the load on both Danube ports and land crossings, opened access to Chinese and other Asian markets, and contributed to higher prices and farmers’ profits.
“These are the drivers that increase the optimism of our forecasts,” stated the head of UkrAgroConsult.
The exports of soybean meal in December of 2023-2024 marketing year amounted to 88 thsd tonnes, up 26% compared to November, and became the record monthly high for almost four years since February 2020, APK-Inform news agency reported.
“Since the beginning of the current season, more than 90% of the total exports of this product have been on the land border, and the blockade of several checkpoints on the Polish and Slovak borders in December did not prevent the increase in shipments of meal to the main market – Poland,” the analysts said.
Poland became the main buyer of Ukrainian soybean meal in December 2023, importing 46 thsd tonnes (+11% compared to November), which accounted for 53% of the total exports of the product from Ukraine, APK-Inform stated.
The value of Ukrainian exports in 2023 decreased by 18.7% compared to 2022 and amounted to $35.8 billion, which is one of the lowest figures in the last decade, First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko said on Facebook on Thursday.
“Logistics continues to be the key for Ukrainian exports. With all the problems and challenges, Ukraine exported 99.8 million tons of goods. This is 112 thousand tons more than in 2022,” – summed up the results of the year first Deputy Prime Minister.
According to her, the success of December should be noted: for the first time in the second half of the year exports by value exceeded $3 billion – $3.148 billion, and by weight for the first time since March became more than 10 million tons – 10.399 million tons.
Sviridenko specified that this was achieved due to the growth of exports by sea in December by 30.7% compared to November – up to 7.34 million tons, and in total for 2023 exports by sea increased by 1 million tons compared to the previous year.
According to her, since exports by the new Ukrainian sea corridor is available not only for grain, but for all goods, in December exports of metal and semi-finished products jumped by 40%, flat rolled products – by 45.3%.
At the same time, pointed out the head of the Ministry of Economy, due to the Polish blockade of borders and further reduced exports by road transport: 18.3% less in December compared to November, although the overall year-on-year reduction amounted to only 0.7%.
“The increase in exports by container transportation – 86% by rail and 36% by road – is very pleasing. This is the most efficient mode of transportation for value-added products,” Sviridenko added.
Separately, First Deputy Prime Minister emphasized the increase in exports of furniture in 2023 both in volume and in monetary terms – respectively by 11% and 7%, as well as the growth of sugar exports by 1.7 times.
At the same time, she said, there was a drop in the size of revenue of the most massive export commodity by volume – corn (26.2 million tons): with a physical growth of 5%, revenue fell by 16.8%. “The problem is not only the fall in the world price. The arithmetic average price of Ukrainian corn – $188 – was significantly less than the arithmetic average world price – $227. The $39 difference is a discount due to problems in logistics and the flow of profits to neighboring countries – Poland and Romania, from where most of our grain is resold,” – said Sviridenko.
As for imports, according to the head of the Ministry of Economy, they amounted to $62.2 billion. The top 10 goods imported to Ukraine included fuel – $7.8 billion, “miscellaneous (where not advertised)”” – $3.7 billion, medicines – $1.7 billion, UAVs – $681 million, cars and goods for agriculture (fertilizers and plant protection products).
Sviridenko added that the goods trade deficit is indeed significant at $26.4 billion, but such changes are logical given the logistical challenges and defense needs in 2023.
As for the goals for 2024, the first deputy prime minister expects to return export volumes to the level of 2021, strengthen export logistics with air defense systems, and develop more alternative logistics options so that there is a possibility to maneuver in case of difficulties.
She is confident that if the pace is kept up, the Economy Ministry predicts that exports of goods and services will generally grow in the following years: by 9% in 2024, 19.4% in 2025 and 20.6% in 2026.
“And, of course, I cannot fail to mention our trade agreements, which improve access of Ukrainian goods to foreign markets. In 2023, we signed a digital trade agreement with the UK. We are awaiting ratification of the agreement with Canada. At the finish line is the ratification of agreements with Turkey, for which we have done additional work to improve its provisions. And soon we are waiting for an official announcement on the successful conclusion of negotiations on the UAE,” Sviridenko added.
Kaan Terzioğlu, CEO of VEON Group, the parent company of Ukraine’s largest telecom operator Kyivstar, plans to return to Kyiv in late January to meet with his team and continue the dialogue with the Ukrainian authorities, he said in an interview with Forbes Ukraine.
“I hope that we will meet with many stakeholders, including the Ukrainian government, but not only,” Terzioglu said.
He added that during his first visit in October last year, he was unable to talk to Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Rostyslav Shurma, who has been publicly stating the possibility of nationalizing Kyivstar since July last year, and hopes that he will be able to do so during his upcoming visit.
“When the rumors emerged and Mr. Shurma gave his interviews, it had a significant impact on trading volumes and share prices. Now the shock has passed, but we lost almost 30% of the value of our shares during that period,” stated the CEO of VEON.
Commenting on the seizure of 47.85% of Kyivstar shares, which is comparable to Letter One’s stake in VEON, Terzioglu said that an appeal has been filed and expressed hope that the seizure will be lifted and this will help reassure international investors. He emphasized that VEON owns all 100% of Kyivstar’s shares, and Letter One, according to his information, has distanced itself from co-owners Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven, who are subject to international sanctions, and is not subject to such international sanctions.
According to VEON’s CEO, the seizure of Kyivstar shares does not affect the company’s operations, ability to operate and maintain its networks. “The arrest only affects the ability to receive dividends or transfer shares from one owner to another,” Terizoglu explained.
Earlier it was reported that the Shevchenkivskyi District Court of Kyiv reduced the package of seized shares of Kyivstar from 99.994654% to 47.85%, and the seized share of LifeSell LLC from 100% to 19.8% as part of interim measures in the case against Alfa Group co-owner Mikhail Fridman opened in late September. He made such changes to the earlier ruling of October 4 based on a motion filed by a prosecutor from the Prosecutor General’s Office due to a typo. As for the rest of the seized assets, the court confirmed the accuracy of their original description. In particular, 100% of the corporate rights of three Kyivstar-affiliated companies, including Kyivstar.Tech, Helsi, and the Ukrainian Tower Company, remain under arrest.
National bank of Ukraine’s official rates as of 04/01/24
www.bank.gov.ua
Oil prices are rising on Thursday morning after a sharp rise in the previous session.
The price of March futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 7:06 a.m. was $78.61 per barrel, which is $0.36 (0.46%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Wednesday, these contracts jumped in price by $2.36 (3.1%) to $78.25 per barrel.
Quotations for February futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time increased by $0.49 (0.67%) to $73.19 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they rose by $2.32 (3.3%) to $72.70 per barrel.
Oil jumped in price on the news of the deaths of more than a hundred people in explosions near the grave of General Qasem Soleimani in Iran on the anniversary of his death. Soleimani was the commander of the Al-Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran’s intelligence services called the explosions a targeted terrorist attack.
Meanwhile, oil production at Libya’s largest oil field, al-Sharara, has been suspended due to protests. The field produces about 300 thousand barrels of oil per day.
In addition, investors are assessing signals about changes in energy reserves in the United States. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), in the week to December 29, US oil reserves fell by 7.42 million barrels, while the expected decline was 2.97 million barrels.
Official data from the US Department of Energy will be published at 18:00 on Thursday. Analysts surveyed by Trading Economics expect, on average, that these data will indicate a decrease in oil reserves by 3.73 million barrels.
