In April and the first half of October 2023, GTS Operator LLC transported more than 3 bcm of natural gas from the EU and Moldova to Ukraine, which is seven times more than the volume of the resource transported during the same period last year (more than 414 mcm), the Energy Ministry reported.
Of the transported gas, 2.4 billion cubic meters of fuel belonging to foreign companies are stored in domestic UGS facilities, according to its release on Monday.
According to the GTSOU, cited by the Energy Ministry, the main transportation route remains the Slovakian one, with 45% of the gas volumes coming from there. Natural gas was also supplied from Hungary, Poland, and the Trans-Balkan route (from Romania via Moldova).
The Ministry of Energy noted that the Trans-Balkan route was used for the first time this year, mainly transporting gas ordered by foreign traders for storage in Ukraine.
As reported, natural gas supplies to Ukraine in September 2023 from the European Union and Moldova amounted to 982.7 bcm. In April-September 2023, Ukraine received more than 2.8 bcm from the EU and Moldova, which exceeds the corresponding figures for the same periods in 2021 and 2022.
As noted by Oleksiy Chernyshov, CEO of Naftogaz Group, the volume of non-resident gas in Ukraine’s underground storage facilities reached 2.2 bcm at the beginning of October.
Stress testing conducted by the Ukrainian GTS and UGS operators with the assistance of USAID in August 2023 confirmed the high reliability of the Ukrainian gas infrastructure, including the storage and transportation of gas from foreign customers, even in the face of military risk of damage to key assets.
After Azerbaijan established control over the former Nagorno-Karabakh, the Transcaucasus region entered a new era, where the political and economic prospects of the countries of the region became a subject of discussion in the international arena. In light of this, experts from various countries are analyzing the current situation and trying to predict the future of relations between the countries in the region. A new video published on the YouTube channel “Experts club” was devoted to this very topic, in which Azerbaijani military analyst, leading expert of the analytical center “STEM” Agil Rustamzadeh and the founder of the Kiev analytical center “Experts club”, candidate of economic sciences Maxim Urakin shared their opinion on the situation.
Military-political aspect
The experts emphasize the importance of the reached mutual understanding on the Karabakh issue.
“The resolution of the conflict has created a basis for the resumption of diplomatic dialog and economic cooperation between the countries of the Transcaucasus. Azerbaijan’s confrontation with Armenia is conditioned not only by the Karabakh conflict, the point is that those people who created this geopolitical paradigm were engaged in shaping the worldview of the Armenian population. A part of the Armenian population still believes that they once had a state that included the territories of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia. With the emergence of Western institutions and the change of Armenians’ views, they begin to realize that enmity with such a geopolitical player as Turkey is a dead-end way of the country’s development. It is a way to nowhere, especially when these countries have no territorial claims to you, but you have territorial claims to your neighbors,” Rustamzadeh stressed.
The expert also notes that the signing of a possible peace treaty will give Armenia an impetus to move to a new level of development, will allow it to become not an object but a subject of international politics.
“I meet such an opinion both in Azerbaijan and Turkish colleagues. It is that under certain changes Turkey and Azerbaijan can become the guarantor of Armenia’s territorial integrity. Therefore, I believe that with the pragmatism shown by the Armenian people, the government and the political elite of Armenia, Armenia has chances to become a pro-Western democratic country,” Rustamzadeh said.
In his opinion, in order to ensure long-term stability, it is necessary to analyze all aspects of the conflict and its consequences for regional security.
Economic aspect
Maxim Urakin emphasized the economic sphere of relations between the countries of the region.
“Economy and politics are closely linked, and trade relations between the countries of the Transcaucasus play an important role in shaping the political landscape of the region,” Urakin noted.
The expert also drew attention to how export destinations affect the countries’ political preferences.
“Most of Azerbaijan and Iran’s exports are directed to Europe and Asia, while Turkey’s exports are much more diversified,” the economist emphasized.
Urakin also analyzed each country’s exports and their trade relations in detail, emphasizing the interconnectedness of economic and political factors in the region.
Development Prospects
Rustamzadeh and Urakin agree that further sustainable development of the region requires further work to resolve the remaining conflict situations and increase economic cooperation between the countries.
“Restoring trust and strengthening economic ties between the countries of the Transcaucasus will contribute to the creation of a favorable climate for investment and growth of the regional economy,” Rustamzadeh concluded.
You can learn more about the prospects of development of the Transcaucasus after the end of the Karabakh conflict from the video on the Experts club channel at the link:
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ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN, CAUCASUS, KARABAKH, NAGORNY_KARABAKH, RUSTAMZADEH, URAKIN, WAR
CSD LAB Medical Laboratory (Kyiv) has doubled the number of laboratory offices in nine months of 2023.
“At the beginning of this year, the CSD LAB network included 40 laboratory offices, and as of October 1, their number has already reached 83,” the laboratory said in a press release.
In addition, by the end of 2023, it is planned to increase this figure to 100.
“This will allow the company to be present in all regions of the country where it is possible. In particular, covering the frontline regions – in the summer, partner offices were opened in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk,” the company reports.
CSD LAB specifies that in 2023, laboratory offices were opened in Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Khmelnytskyi, Uzhhorod, Rivne, Kremenchuk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Mukachevo, Irpin, Vasylkiv, and Vyshhorod.
It is specified that since the beginning of the year, the network of CSD LAB’s own laboratory offices has grown fivefold to 45, and the number of partner offices has increased from 11 to 22.
The laboratory also reminds about the strategy of expanding its work in the franchise format.
CSD LAB is one of the leading laboratories in Ukraine that provides more than 1500 tests: from a general blood test to the determination of genetic disorders in a tumor using the NGS method. It has been one of the largest pathology laboratories in Eastern Europe for 13 years.
The Eastern Interregional Main Directorate of the State Service of Ukraine for Food Safety and Consumer Protection has imposed restrictions on the import of meat products from Thailand to Ukraine due to the registration of African swine fever (ASF) in that country, the agency’s press service reports.
According to an order of the Chief State Veterinary Inspector of Ukraine dated October 13, 2023, the ban applies to the import of animals belonging to the families of pigs, tayas and tapirs, as well as genetic material and products from animals of the listed families.
At the same time, the ban does not apply to products that have been processed by a method that guarantees the destruction of the causative agent of this disease in accordance with the requirements for the import (shipment) into the customs territory of Ukraine of food products of animal origin, feed, hay, straw, as well as by-products of animal origin and products of their processing, processing, approved by Order of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food No. 553 of November 16, 2018.
African swine fever (Montgomery’s disease) is a contagious viral disease of domestic and wild pigs, first recorded in 1903 in South Africa. It cannot be treated or vaccinated. The spread of the virus can only be stopped by quarantine measures.
ASF is not dangerous for humans, but it causes economic losses, as all animals in the infected area must be destroyed.
The transition to a regime of managed exchange rate flexibility has not yet affected housing prices in the primary market, but it may change the behavior of potential buyers, and the rise in the dollar in the future may affect construction costs, according to Ukrainian developers interviewed by Interfax-Ukraine.
“We do not expect any sharp price fluctuations in the primary market. Pegging to the current US dollar exchange rate is a standard practice among developers. That is, in case of a significant depreciation of the hryvnia against the dollar, prices for square meters in the national currency equivalent will indeed increase. However, we do not see any reasons for this at the moment,” Anna Laevska, Commercial Director of Intergal-Bud, told the agency.
According to her, in the short term, the cost per square meter will be mainly influenced by the dynamics of real demand and the cost of construction.
At the same time, the rise in the dollar may lead to higher prices for contractors’ services and construction materials, said Dmytro Novikov, marketing director of City One Development.
“At present, we do not see any prerequisites for a rapid rise in prices in the primary real estate market. Even if the dollar rises in value, there will be no significant changes in the primary market in the near future. But it may have an impact in the future: if the cost of construction materials, which are directly tied to the currency, rises, the cost of construction will certainly increase,” he said.
Daria Bedia, Marketing Director of DIM Group, expressed a similar opinion.
“The pricing policy in the primary market is always closely linked to exchange rate fluctuations, as a large percentage of contractor services and the cost of construction materials, for example, are tied to the US currency. If the exchange rate rises significantly, it will create an additional burden on the cost of construction, which will push the price up,” the expert said.
At the same time, the rhetoric about the “rise in prices” against the background of a flexible exchange rate is nothing more than a marketing ploy and an attempt to persuade buyers to buy, she noted.
“There will be no rapid growth in this case, taking into account the constraining factors,” Bedia believes.
In case of a dollar appreciation, developers will be able to slow down the growth of costs only with the help of previously purchased stock of building materials, said Irina Mikhaleva, marketing director of Alliance Novobud.
“We can say for sure that with the further growth of the dollar, the cost of primary materials will also increase, primarily in hryvnia equivalent. The cost of construction will also increase, as manufacturers and suppliers of services and building materials will raise prices. The only way to slow down the growth of costs may be the stocks of building materials that were purchased earlier and are now at the disposal of builders,” she said.
Ms. Mikhaleva noted that the market reaction can be predicted only if the dollar gradually rises, without sharp jumps.
For their part, KAN Development believes that even a sharp fluctuation in the exchange rate will have a minor impact on the housing market.
“Even a sharp fluctuation in the exchange rate, if it affects the cost of real estate, will not significantly affect the housing market. If the hryvnia drops by 10%, it will strengthen later. Government mortgage programs will not be suspended and will continue to be issued in hryvnia. As for new housing, developers will continue to adjust to the market price in dollars. So far, we do not see any factors that could sharply collapse the hryvnia,” the developer commented.
According to the Kovalska Group’s press office, the transition to exchange rate flexibility may have an indirect impact on demand and may slow down the pace of recovery in the real estate market amid a general decline in purchasing power.
“For example, buyers who have savings in another currency and are ready to buy today may postpone their purchase decisions until the exchange rate is “better”, and buyers who are considering purchasing under government and partner programs such as eOselya, preferential mortgages, etc. may go to the secondary market in search of cheaper housing due to “uncertainty”,” the developer noted.
Susanna Karakhanyan, Head of Sales at Greenville Group, also spoke about the likelihood of changing the behavior of potential buyers.
“For those who are now thinking about buying a home, a window of opportunity is opening to invest before the exchange rate gains speed and starts to grow after the commercial one. This situation is likely to accelerate investors who are ready to pay the full price immediately,” the expert told the agency.
In addition, the situation has become unpredictable for those who planned to take out a long installment plan to buy a home.
“While the NBU exchange rate was unchanged for more than a year, investors could clearly calculate their payments. Now the situation will be unpredictable. Therefore, developers will try to take control of the situation: for example, to fix the exchange rate for a certain period in order not to lose a buyer and demonstrate loyalty,” Karakhanyan said.
As reported, on October 3, the National Bank of Ukraine switched to a regime of managed exchange rate flexibility.
Since the beginning of autumn, the primary real estate market has seen an increase in transactions for the purchase of business class apartments with an average price of $2 thousand per square meter, Daria Bedia, Marketing Director of DIM Group, told Interfax-Ukraine.
“According to our analysts’ research, business class now accounts for 25% of the sales structure, although this figure was 15% in the spring. Such signals are encouraging, so we expect an increase in demand this fall. Of course, everything will depend on the news at the front, the frequency and consequences of shelling in the capital and possible power outages. We are also well aware that this category of buyers is likely to leave Ukraine for the winter in late fall,” Bedia said.
According to her, the level of demand is directly influenced by the project itself and its concept, stage and activity of construction. Important criteria include the developer’s reputation, ability to keep its word in terms of deadlines and promises, as well as flexible purchase terms in case of 100% payment and installments. Much attention is paid to the type and quality of materials, spatial zoning, landscape design, service company, security and concierge services. People who choose business class value a sufficient number of parking spaces and an underground parking lot with an elevator to the residential floors.
According to DIM Group analysts, apartments with the correct layout are in high demand, more often either classic layout solutions or Euro-formats with spacious kitchens-living rooms and isolated private rooms.
The area of one-bedroom apartments, which are most often bought in the business segment, reaches 50-55 sq. m, two-bedroom apartments – 75-80 sq. m, three-bedroom apartments – 100-120 sq. m. According to DIM’s Marketing Director, the mandatory attributes of such apartments are a large living area with panoramic windows of 30 sq. m. or more, a master bedroom with a dressing area and a separate bathroom of 20 sq. m., and a children’s room of 25 sq. m. or more with a wardrobe.
At the same time, the tendency to reduce the average area of purchased apartments continues.
If earlier, according to her, in the business class were interested in three-bedroom apartments in the range of 120-150 sq. m., now up to 120 sq. m.; while two-bedroom apartments are now more in demand in the range of up to 85 sq. m. against 85-100 sq. m. earlier. Only the demand for one-bedroom apartments has not changed at the level of 50-55 sq. m.
“The average area of apartments in terms of demand decreased by 10-15%. But the bulk of the sold objects were designed before the war, so developers still have large apartments that are not very interesting to buyers. After all, the total purchase receipt is more important nowadays. Therefore, developers offer more flexible terms for large apartments in terms of installments and discounts,” Bedia summarizes.
DIM Group was founded in 2014 and includes six companies covering all stages of construction. So far, it has commissioned 12 houses in six residential complexes with a total living area of over 218 thousand square meters. Six comfort+ and business class residential complexes are under construction: “New Autograph, Metropolis, Park Lake City, Lucky Land, etc.
