Business news from Ukraine

Business news from Ukraine

Oil is stable, Brent near $88.6 per barrel

Benchmark oil prices, which ended last week at their highest levels this year, are little changed on Monday morning.

The price of November futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:08 a.m. is $84.53 per barrel, which is 6 cents (0.07%) higher than at the close of the previous session. Last Friday, these contracts rose by $1.72 (2%) to $88.55 per barrel.

Quotes for WTI futures for October in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time increased by 9 cents (0.11%) to $85.64 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they rose by $1.92 (2.3%) to $85.55 per barrel.

Over the past week, Brent rose in price by 5.5%, WTI by 7.2%, and the two brands ended trading on Friday at their highest levels since November 17 and 16, 2022, respectively.

The quotes were supported by fears of a reduction in supply in the market, as well as positive statistics from China.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in China’s manufacturing industry in August updated its highest level since February, Caixin Media Co. reported on Friday, which calculates the indicator. The index rose to 51 points from 49.2 points in July. A value above 50 points indicates an increase in activity in the sector.

Traders also expect Saudi Arabia to extend its voluntary production cuts by 1 million barrels per day to October.

In addition, the latest US data is “relatively balanced and generally in line with expectations that the peak level of Federal Reserve interest rates has already been reached, which in turn spurs hopes for a soft landing for the US economy,” said Tyler Ritchie of Sevens Report Research.

Meanwhile, data from the oilfield services company Baker Hughes showed that over the past week, the number of operating oil rigs in the United States remained unchanged at 512 units, the lowest since February 2022. The number of gas rigs decreased by 1 to 114.

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Poland will not allow grain imports from Ukraine after September 15 and will agitate other EU countries to ban grain imports by end of year

Poland will not allow grain imports from Ukraine after September 15, as the interest of Polish farmers is more important to the country’s government than any EU rules on this issue, said Polish Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Robert Telusz.

“We know what could have happened if grain (from Ukraine) had arrived in Poland after September 15. Especially since the price of grain is currently low, and the granaries are already full. We know that this is in our interest and we will defend it. That is why I am going to Spain with this message to the summit of agriculture ministers,” the Polish publication farmer.pl quoted him as saying during the National Agricultural Exhibition in Czestochowa last Sunday.

Telusz informed the public that on Monday he will visit Spain, where he will convince the European Union to extend the ban on grain imports from Ukraine to the EU until the end of 2023 after September 15, together with representatives of other frontline countries – Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Romania.

“When the war in Ukraine broke out, Polish society, including farmers, became the saviors of the Ukrainian cause. (…) Polish society became a lifesaver. Today in Brussels, we are loudly declaring: a dead rescuer is a bad rescuer. We will not allow the Polish farmer to lose because of arbitrary decisions of officials from Brussels,” said Deputy Minister of Agriculture Krzysztof Ciezora.

According to Janusz Kowalski, the State Secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture, the Polish government has supported Polish farmers to the tune of EUR 3.181 billion, while the amount of financial support from the European Commission is only EUR 63.614 million.

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Inflation in Turkey reached 59%

Inflation in Turkey accelerated for the second consecutive month in August and reached an eight-month high due to tax hikes, a weaker lira and rising food prices.

Consumer prices increased by 58.9% year-on-year, compared to a 47.8% rise in July, according to the country’s statistical institute (Turkstat).

Analysts surveyed by Trading Economics had predicted a more moderate acceleration of inflation, to 55.9%.

Food prices jumped 72.9%, the highest rise in eight months. In July, they rose by 60.7%.

Utilities went up by 25% last month (19.3% in July), transportation by 70.2% (43.4%), and medical services by 77.6% (75.9%). The growth in the cost of furniture and household appliances accelerated to 58.9% from 50.1%.

Core inflation, which excludes the cost of food, energy, tobacco products and gold, was 64.9% in August, compared to 56.1% a month earlier, Turkstat reports.

Meanwhile, monthly consumer price growth slowed to 9.1% in August from 9.5% in July. The July figure was the highest since December 2021.

The Central Bank of Turkey expects inflation to be 58% in 2023, 33% in 2024, and 15% in 2025.

The Turkish national currency is trading at around 26.77 lira per $1 on Monday, compared to 26.73 lira at the close of the previous session. The Turkish stock index BIST 100 has risen by 1% since the market opened.

Earlier, the Club of Experts project analyzed the state of the Turkish economy before the elections, see more here

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DENMARK PROPOSES TO INCREASE AID TO UKRAINE

The Danish government proposes to increase aid for Ukraine’s civil needs from DKK 1.2 billion to DKK 1.5 billion next year, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reports.
“Denmark will increase the scope of assistance for the development of Ukraine, which will again become the largest recipient country of Danish aid. In the Finance Law for 2024, the government proposes to increase from DKK 1.2 billion to DKK 1.5 billion (about $43.5 million) allocated for the civil needs of Ukraine and the countries of the Eastern Neighborhood within the Ukraine Fund of Ukraine,” the Danish Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Minister for International Development and Global Climate Policy Dan Jørgensen noted that “assistance to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people is a top priority for the government.”
“Therefore, this year we again allocate a record high amount to civilian needs in order to continue to provide important support and help overcome the difficult consequences of the war. Ukraine’s recovery will be long, and the needs are huge,” the minister stressed.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicates that the assistance will be aimed at providing emergency assistance to the victims of the war, as well as restoring the most important infrastructure of Ukraine.
“At the request of Ukraine itself, the government has taken on special responsibility for the city of Mykolaiv and its restoration. In Mykolaiv, Denmark is helping provide better access to water and heat, as well as restoring and repairing residential areas, schools and medical facilities,” the Danish ministry notes.
In addition, Denmark will assist countries such as Georgia and Moldova by accelerating the reforms and large-scale democratization processes they face as the consequences of the Russian invasion extend to neighboring countries with Ukraine, “which are suffering from Russian influence, the reception of Ukrainian refugees and power supply problems.”

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Net inflow of people to Ukraine before September 1 has sharply increased

For the seventh week in a row (from August 26 to September 1), the number of inbound border crossings into Ukraine exceeds the number of outbound crossings: due to the start of the school year, the difference this week jumped to 48,000 compared to 12,000-13,000 in the previous two weeks.

According to data from the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine released on Facebook, exit crossings fell to 327,000 this week from 362,000 last week, while entry crossings remained at 375,000.

The number of vehicles crossing Ukraine’s western border, according to the agency, also fell in the 35th week of the year, from 145,000 to 141,000, while the number of vehicles with humanitarian goods cleared fell from 704 to 653.

The Polish Border Guard Service also recorded an increase in the net inflow to Ukraine over the last seven days – up to 25.8 thousand from 6.2 thousand the previous week and 15.9 thousand a week earlier.

According to the Polish Ministry, the number of those who entered Poland from Ukraine during the week decreased from 229.0 thousand to 208.8 thousand, while the number of those traveling in the opposite direction decreased from 235.2 thousand to 234.6 thousand.

In general, since the beginning of the war, by September 1, 2023, 15.18 million people had arrived in Poland from Ukraine, while 13.47 million people had traveled in the opposite direction.

As reported, since May 10, 2022, the outflow of refugees from Ukraine was replaced by an inflow, which lasted until September 23 and amounted to 409 thousand people.

However, since the end of September, possibly under the influence of news about mobilization in Russia and “pseudo-referendums” in the occupied territories, and then massive shelling of energy infrastructure, an excess of the number of those leaving over those entering was recorded. It temporarily stopped in the second half of December – early January for the period of holidays, but then resumed again and in total since the end of September by the anniversary of the full-scale war reached 223 thousand people.

Since that time and up to today, thanks to the statistics of the last seven weeks, the number of border crossings to enter Ukraine has exceeded the number of crossings to leave by 159 thousand.

As Deputy Minister of Economy Serhiy Sobolev noted in early March, the return of every 100 thousand Ukrainians home gives a 0.5% increase in GDP.

According to the UNHCR, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of August 29 was estimated at 5.834 million, and in the whole world at 6.203 million, which is 4,000 and 6,000 more than a week ago.

In Ukraine itself, according to the UN data as of the end of May, there were 5.088m internally displaced persons.

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