Civilian casualties from February 24, 2022, after Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine, to May 21, 2023, totaled 24,012 (23,821 a week earlier), including 8,895 deaths (8,836), the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said Monday.
“OHCHR believes that the real number of civilian deaths or injuries is significantly higher, as many reports from places where such cases have occurred continue to require further confirmation, while information from some places where fighting is ongoing is delayed,” the UN data document noted.
This is the case, for example, in such locations as Mariupol (Donetsk region), Lysychansk, Popasna and Severodonetsk (Luhansk region), where numerous civilian deaths or injuries have been reported.
The UN confirmed that 4,040 men, 2,403 women, 275 boys and 218 girls were killed, while the gender of 30 children and 1,929 adults could not yet be determined.
Among the 15,117 wounded are 445 boys and 314 girls, and 276 children whose gender has not yet been determined.
Compared to May 14, two children were killed and seven others were wounded.
Whereas previously the OHCHR’s update on casualty figures was issued daily, and then only on weekdays, it became a weekly update in July. This report, like the previous one, provides data by month.
According to them, the number of deaths since the beginning of May was 133, compared with 180 in April, 181 in March, 142 in February, 199 in January, 206 in December and 187 in November.
The deadliest month for civilians, the UN points out, remains March of last year, with a minimum of 4,118 deaths. In April-2022, according to an OHCHR publication, the number of civilian deaths due to the war dropped to 804, in May to 535, in June to 428 and in July to 381. In the first five days of the war from February 24-28, 362 people died, in August 336, in September 398 and in October 305.
The number of wounded in the 21 days of May was 466, compared with 494 in April, 592 in March, 457 in February, 539 in January, 617 in December, and 541 in November. In October, the number of injured dropped to 795 from 981 in September, when it was up from 917 in August. Before that the number of wounded had exceeded a thousand each month: July – 1,129, June – 1,105, May – 1,138, April – 1,891, March – 2,990. In the first five days of the war last February, 465 people were wounded.
According to the report, in the first three weeks of May this year, large-area explosive weapons killed 122 people and wounded another 431, while mines and explosive remnants of war killed 11 people and wounded 35 (8 percent of total casualties).
Government-controlled territories accounted for 83 percent of the casualties in May, according to the UN.
The summary traditionally states that the increase in numbers to the previous summary should not be attributed only to cases after May 14, because during that period the Office verified a number of cases from previous days.
Dynamics of gold and foreign reserves of Ukraine from 2012 to 2023
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
Global raw sugar prices remain around $0.26 a pound on fears of supply cuts, Trading Economics reported.
That’s close to a high of more than 11 years (since October 2011) of $0.27 a pound reached in late April.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) in its May report sharply worsened its forecast for sugar oversupply in the 2022/23 crop year to 850,000 tons from 4.12 million tons a month earlier. This is due to a downward revision in expected supplies from key regions such as Europe, China, Thailand and India.
ISO estimates sugar production this year at 177.36 million tons, compared to the previous forecast of 180.43 million tons. Meanwhile, its global consumption will rise to 176.51 million tons.
“We’ve gone from an expected sugar surplus this year to no surplus at all,” believes Frank Jenkins, president of independent broker JSG Commodities.
Just a few months ago, he expected sugar production to exceed demand by about 4 to 6 million tons. “Because of crop losses in India, China, the European Union, Thailand and Mexico, those estimates have essentially dropped to a balance level, so there’s no real surplus to speak of,” said the expert, quoted by Barron’s.
“Unfavorable weather has become a much bigger problem for all agricultural products, including sugar,” believes Robin Shaw, an analyst at brokerage Marex. “The real enemy of sugar is drought,” and there are more of them around the world, he added.
Shaw predicts that sugar demand is likely to exceed production by 6 million to 7 million tons over the next three years. He previously expected a surplus of about 4 million tons this year.
To unfavorable weather, “you can add potential yield declines due to high fertilizer prices in the last couple of years, which is not helping the sugar market,” said John Stansfield, senior sugar analyst at consulting firm DNEXT Intelligence, John Stansfield.
About 80% of the world’s sugar production comes from sugar cane and 20% from beets, according to ISO. The largest producers are Brazil and India, as well as the EU and Thailand.
Dragon Capital investment company, one of the leading players on the Ukrainian market, forecasts real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3 percent in 2023, while previously it had expected a decline of 0.5 percent.
“We have already improved our forecast: we expect GDP growth of 3% this year,” the company’s founder and head Tomas Fiala said in an interview on Radio NV.
He said power outages have already stopped since mid-February, and economic results in recent months have been better than expected.
“And we hope the economy will grow, perhaps even more than 3 percent,” Fiala added.
Dragon Capital told Interfax-Ukraine that rate and inflation forecasts will also be updated soon.
Fiala noted that Ukraine’s nominal GDP in dollars fell to $160 billion in 2022 from $200 billion in 2021.
“This is the best figure in the last 10 years, more was only in 2021: GDP was $157 billion in 2020 and $160 billion in 2022,” the head of Dragon Capital said.
As reported, Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko late last week said he raised Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 3.2%, while previously the government had estimated it at 1%, and the National Bank recently improved it from 0.3% to 2%.
Oil prices rise weakly on Tuesday as traders continue to follow negotiations to raise the U.S. borrowing limit.
Negotiations between U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday were productive, according to both sides, but no agreement was reached. Meanwhile, the deadline for raising the debt ceiling is approaching: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the day before that her agency’s funds are “highly likely” to run out in early June and possibly even by June 1.
“The pending national debt limit issue is taking a toll on the mood of oil traders,” said Ricardo Evangelista, chief analyst at ActivTrades.
“If the issue is not resolved soon, the U.S. Treasury will be left without funds and unable to meet its obligations, and this scenario could trigger a crisis whose scale is unpredictable,” Market Watch quotes the expert as saying.
The cost of July futures for Brent crude oil on London’s ICE Futures exchange is $76.13 a barrel by 8:15 a.m. on Tuesday, up $0.14 (0.18%) from the previous session’s closing price. Those contracts rose $0.41 (0.5%) to $75.99 a barrel on Monday.
The price of WTI futures for July oil grew by $0.16 (0.22%) up to $72.21 per barrel at electronic trades of NYMEX by that time. At the end of previous session the contracts value grew by $0.36 (0.5%) up to $72.05 per barrel.
Since the beginning of the current year, oil prices fell by about 10% against the slower-than-expected recovery of the Chinese economy after the lifting of quarantine restrictions. Other factors restraining the oil market upturn include the ongoing tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve System and the continued high volume of Russian oil exports.
