The total number of medical personnel – doctors, nurses and paramedics in Ukraine in 2022 decreased by 14% compared to 2021, according to the results of research “Medicine during the war: the influence of a full-scale invasion of Russia on the health care system of Ukraine”, the Ukrainian Center for Healthcare (UCH).
According to them, the number of nursing staff decreased the most, which decreased by 16.5% compared to prewar levels.
“It is expected that the number of medical personnel decreased in regions where active hostilities are taking place or in the temporarily occupied territories of the Russian Federation,” the UCH press release said.
At the same time, it is noted that against the background of the reduction in the number of medical personnel in the frontline and de-occupied territories there was no noticeable influx of medical workers in the rear regions, except in Poltava region, where the number of doctors slightly increased.
“Such trends may indicate the scale of migration of medics abroad,” the UCH indicated.
At the same time, citing the Polish Ministry of Health’s response to UCH’s inquiry about the number of medics who received specialty work permits in Poland in 2022, the center cites data that as of late February 2023, just over 2,300 doctors and over 1,060 nurses and nurse aides were employed there, with nearly 1.8 million Ukrainian refugees registered in Poland, according to official figures.
“Since Poland has taken in the largest number of Ukrainians, it is expected that the flow of medics will match a similar scale. But less than 1% of the pre-war number of Ukrainian medics were employed in Poland,” the UCH states.
It is specified that the analysis was conducted using data from the National Health Service of Ukraine (NHSU), which takes into account only those medics who worked in contracted with it medical institutions.
Large Ukrainian cable plant Odeskabel plans to produce and sell LAN-cables for UAH 570 mln, which is 45.8% more than in 2022, and keep output of fiber-optic cables (FOC) at last year’s level – not less than UAH 284 mln.
Such plans are outlined by the company in the financial report published in the information disclosure system of the Securities and Stock Market Commission (SSMSC).
“Priority areas for development and further investment remain fiber-optic, LAN cables and power wires,” the document says.
Power cables, wires and cords, including reinforced wires are planned to produce not less than UAH 860 million.
In addition, it is planned to output communication cables in the amount of 65,3 mln hryvnias, radio-frequency cables in the amount not less than 49 mln hryvnias, and heating cables in the amount of 40 mln hryvnias.
The company states that due to the military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, a decrease in production and sales was registered in 2022 for the main types of cable products, i.e. the share of fiber optic cables and LAN-cables decreased, but the share of power (energy) and other cables increased.
Commodity output of LAN-cable amounted to 46 thousand ukm 391 million UAH, which is 49.2% less than a year earlier, and the volume of sales decreased by 49.8%.
“LAN-cable was exported to 17 countries, and the share of its export was 46.8% of total sales of this type of product,” notes Odeskabel.
Fibre-optic cables were produced 279.9 thousand ukm for 283.4 million UAH, which is 23.7% less than in 2021, and the main markets were Ukraine, Slovakia and Moldova. A total of 149.8 million UAH worth of FOCs were exported.
“Due to the military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, the main types of cable products in 2022 marked a decline in production and sales, but despite this, an increase in production on four types of cable out of 22,” – noted in the document.
According to the report, net income of the company in 2022 decreased by 24.7% to 2021 – to UAH 1 billion 561 million, the loss made UAH 27.24 million against net profit of UAH 55.4 million.
The plant received UAH 326.74 mln in gross profit, which is 6.4% less than a year earlier, and operating profit was UAH 122.26 mln, which is 1.5% more.
In 2023, the company plans to export products worth at least UAH 590 mln, while in 2022 it exported products worth UAH 649.42 mln.
At the beginning of this year Odeskabel had concluded but not yet fulfilled contracts for 179.26 mln UAH.
According to the report, the most promising, popular in the domestic market and export-oriented types of cables are LAN-cables for structured cable systems and cables for computer networks, FOC, power cables of modern designs, sections and sets of heating.
“Fluctuations in demand for cable products depend on the activities of organizations for the construction of housing, industrial facilities and telecommunications networks. The most active sales periods are the second half of the first quarter, the second and third quarters,” the company notes.
The main consumers are telecom companies, private service providers of access to the Internet, cable TV and IPTV operators, enterprises of coal, mining and processing, power supply and intermediary companies.
By the beginning of this year, the company employed 858 people, 65 fewer than a year earlier.
Ukraine’s population as of the end of 2022 was about 31.4 million people, of which about 1.15 million live in the temporarily occupied territories, according to experts at the Ukrainian Health Center (UHC).
“The war has resulted in an unprecedented migration crisis and large-scale internal displacements. UCH estimates that at the end of 2022, Ukraine’s population was about 31.4 million people. Of these, 1.15 million people live in the temporarily Russian-occupied territories seized after the start of the invasion,” the center’s report on the health care system after the start of the active invasion states.
The center’s experts also note that in the year after the start of the full-scale invasion, the system of outpatient and specialized medical care has fully recovered, in contrast to the system of primary medical care.
“The consumption of medical services at various levels declined in the first months after the invasion. However, outpatient and specialized medical care gradually recovered to prewar levels during 2022. Primary medical care has not resumed and requires support,” the center’s experts stressed.
European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis says the European Commission has reached agreements in principle with Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products.
“There are agreements,” he wrote in capital letters on his Twitter page Friday.
Dombrovskis said the European Commission reached “an agreement in principle with Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia regarding Ukrainian agri-food products.” “Together with Janusz Wojciechowski (European Commissioner for Agriculture) we have taken measures to solve the problems of both farmers in neighboring EU countries and in Ukraine,” he wrote.
The Vice President also named the key elements of the deal, which were also agreed with Ukraine. These elements include the removal of unilateral measures by Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Hungary. Then there are “exceptional safeguard measures for 4 products: wheat, corn, rapeseed, sunflower seeds and a support package of 100 million euros for affected farmers in 5 member states.
In addition, Dombrovskis reported on the investigation of some other products, including sunflower oil.
The volume of IT services exports from Ukraine in the first quarter of 2023 decreased by 16 percent year-on-year to $1.68 billion, the IT Ukraine Association said in a press release on Friday.
It pointed out that for January-December 2022, IT services exports increased by $400 million compared to 2021, to $7.35 billion.
“This decline (in Q1-2023) is due to two factors: first – in previous years, the industry grew at an ultra-high rate, and second – each first quarter of a new year traditionally has a decline compared to the first quarter of the previous year. However, the results of the quarterly exports of IT-services from Ukraine in 2022-2023 show that now the industry has entered into a “flat”, that is, growth has stopped and a significant decline has not begun, “- a comment from the executive director of the Association IT Ukraine Konstantin Vasyuk said in a press release.
According to the Association, in the fourth quarter of 2021, exports of IT services from Ukraine amounted to $ 2.11 billion, in the first quarter of 2022 – $ 2 billion, in the second quarter – $ 1.74 billion, in the third quarter – $ 1.74 billion, in the fourth quarter – $ 1.87 billion. At the same time, the first quarter 2023 export figure is higher than any first quarter figure since 2014, when it was only $0.34 billion. Even in Q1 2021, the figure was lower than the current $1.44 billion. It was only surpassed in Q1 2022 at $2 billion.
It is reported that according to the Association’s observations, which are based on data from the National Bank (NBU), a similar situation took place in 2014, when the IT-sector also showed a drop of 26% and held positions $350-400 million quarterly. However, in 2016, the IT-sector resumed growth and until 2022 was adding 20% annually.
With reference to the NBU data, the IT Ukraine Association reports that IT services account for 43% of total services exports from Ukraine in the first quarter of 2023.
The Club of Experts and Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, have prepared a summary of the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine in the beginning of 2023.
So, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine revised the macro forecast for 2023, worsening the GDP growth forecast from 3.2% to 1%, primarily because of the assumption that the military operations will not end in the middle of the year, and will last “almost a whole year”, said Deputy Minister Sergei Sobolev.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product fell 31.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 after falling 30.8% in the third quarter, 37.2% in the second and 15.1% in the first, the State Statistics Service said Monday. At the same time, according to the consensus forecast of eight companies and non-governmental institutions, which was released by the Center for Economic Strategy, the real gross domestic product of Ukraine in 2023 will decline by 0.1%, with estimates ranging from a decline of 4.6% to growth of 5.5%. The economic recovery will be barely visible this year, expected to moderate GDP growth of 2%, which will bring real GDP at the end of this year at 70-72% of prewar 2021, such macroeconomic forecast published by ICU investment group.
According to deputy governor of the NBU Serhiy Mykolaychuk, the economic situation in Ukraine in the first quarter of 2023 is developing much better than the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expected in its January forecast, especially in the energy supply, so it is highly probable that the central bank will improve its current GDP growth forecast for this year by 0.3% at the end of April. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund forecasts the dynamics of the Ukrainian economy this year from 3% decline to 1% growth followed by 3.2% growth in 2024 and 6.5% growth in 2025.
And the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which previously estimated the dynamics of the Ukrainian economy this year from 3% decline to 1% growth, is inclined to the fact that GDP growth in 2023 may be at the upper limit of this range.
Ukraine’s GDP, after falling by 29.2% last year, will grow by 0.5% this year and by 3.5% next year, predicts the World Bank, which in January this year expected more rapid growth: by 3.3% in 2023 and by 4.1% in 2024.
At the same time, the real gross domestic product of Ukraine after growing by 3.4% in 2021 in 2022 due to full-scale Russian military aggression fell by 29.1%, and the negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-February 2023 increased 3.4 times compared to the same period in 2022 – to $3.713 billion from $1.083 billion.
The state budget deficit of Ukraine in February 2023 increased to 88.8 billion UAH from 72.3 billion UAH in January, including the general fund deficit to 93.2 billion UAH from 78.9 billion UAH.
The aggregate state debt of Ukraine in February decreased by 0.5%: in dollar terms by $0.59 billion – to $116.01 billion, in UAH terms – by UAH 21.62 billion, to UAH 4.24 trillion.
At the same time, at the end of January 2023, Ukraine’s consolidated balance of payments was $1.2 billion in surplus, while in January 2022 the deficit was $1.8 billion.
International reserves of Ukraine as of March 1, 2023, according to preliminary data, amounted to $28.865 billion, which is 3.5%, or $1.064 billion, less than in January 2023 due to interventions of the National Bank to sell currency to cover the difference between supply and demand in the foreign exchange market.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in February 2023 slowed to 0.7% from 0.8% in January, returning to the level of December last year.
