Oil prices rose moderately on Monday morning after last week’s gains.
The price of November Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by $0.36 (0.54%) to $67.35 per barrel at 8:18 a.m. Last Friday, the contract rose by $0.62 (0.93%) to $66.99 per barrel.
WTI crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) electronic trading platform rose by $0.36 (0.57%) to $63.05 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the value of these contracts increased by $0.32 (0.51%) to $62.69 per barrel.
Both brands rose in price by more than 1% over the past week.
Market participants are following news of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, including large refineries and export terminals.
“Attacks on Russian energy infrastructure could reduce exports of Russian oil and refined products,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
IG analyst Tony Sicamore noted that if Ukraine continues to attack Russian export infrastructure, global oil price forecasts will be revised upward.
Meanwhile, data from oilfield services company Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil rigs in the US increased by two last week to 417. The number of gas rigs remained unchanged at 118.
Oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday morning on fears of a reduction in global supplies in the event of new sanctions against Russia.
The price of November Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by $0.48 (0.73%) to $66.5 per barrel as of 8:16 a.m. On Monday, the contract rose by $0.52 (0.79%) to $66.02 per barrel.
WTI crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $0.44 (0.71%) to $62.7 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the value of these contracts increased by $0.39 (0.63%) to $62.26 per barrel.
US President Donald Trump said last weekend that he was ready to introduce a second phase of restrictive measures against Russia. Meanwhile, the European Union is discussing a 19th package of sanctions against Russia, which will affect a number of banks and energy companies, Bloomberg writes, citing sources. According to them, some of the measures may be agreed with the US for the first time since Trump became president.
Meanwhile, ministers from eight OPEC+ countries participating in voluntary oil production cuts agreed last weekend to increase production in October by 137,000 bpd. This will be the first step in a partial return to the market of voluntary restrictions of 1.65 million bpd, which were to remain in effect until the end of 2026.
“The market priced in the production increase last week and is now watching to see if global fuel inventories start to rise, which could mean a reduction in spare production capacity in the future,” said Rebecca Babin of CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Such a rally, driven by a sense of relief, may briefly slow down the bearish trend, but only for a few days.”
Oil prices are rising on Monday morning as traders assess OPEC+’s decision and Washington’s new statements on sanctions against Russia amid Russia’s continued full-scale military aggression against Ukraine.
The price of November Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by $0.83 (1.27%) to $66.33 per barrel as of 7:15 a.m. On Friday, the contract fell by $1.49 (2.22%) to $65.50 per barrel.
WTI crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $0.77 (1.24%) to $62.64 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the price of these contracts fell by $1.61 (2.54%) to $61.87 per barrel.
Over the past week, Brent and WTI futures fell in price by more than 3% on fears of an oversupply in the market if OPEC+ countries increase production.
Ministers from eight OPEC+ countries participating in voluntary oil production cuts approved an increase in production by 137,000 bpd in October at a meeting on September 7. The decision was made in view of the stable outlook for the global economy and favorable market conditions, reflected in low oil inventories, according to a statement from the alliance.
This will be the first tranche of a partial return to the market of voluntary restrictions of 1.65 million bpd, which were to remain in effect until the end of 2026. Now, the plan is to get rid of them by August.
Meanwhile, the production increase agreed upon over the weekend turned out to be less significant than previous ones.
“The moderate increase in OPEC+ production has brought relief to the market,” wrote Fujitomi Securities analyst Toshitaka Tazawa, adding that the increase in production had already been factored into prices, and now there is a technical rebound.
“Expectations of a supply reduction due to possible new US sanctions against Russia are also providing support,” the expert noted.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he was ready to impose a second phase of restrictive measures against Russia. Trump considers the additional tariffs imposed on India to be the first phase of anti-Russian measures. Washington justified these measures by saying that Delhi buys oil from Russia.
Oil prices are rising on Monday amid weak trading activity before the Christmas holidays.
On Wednesday, stock exchanges in the US, UK, Germany, France and other European countries, as well as Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia, will be closed for Christmas. Many sites will remain closed on Thursday as well.
The cost of February futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:20 a.m. is $73.27 per barrel, which is $0.33 (0.45%) higher than at the close of the previous trading. On Friday, these contracts fell by $0.06 (0.1%) to $72.94 per barrel.
Futures for WTI for February in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have risen in price by this time by $0.38 (0.55%) to $69.84 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the value of these contracts increased by $0.08 (0.1%) to $69.46 per barrel.
Last week, Brent fell by 2.1%, WTI – by 1.9%.
On Monday, traders are evaluating the statements of US President-elect Donald Trump, who demanded that the Panama Canal Authority reduce the fee for the passage of ships through this waterway. Otherwise, Washington may regain control of this facility, Trump said.
“Trump’s threats and rhetoric in the international arena are mostly just noise for the oil markets at the moment,” said Vanda Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. – “Given the low trading activity and the lack of strong market signals, I expect the sideways trend to continue until the end of the year.
Experts at Haitong Futures, whose review was cited by The Wall Street Journal on Monday, note that the US statistics released on Friday showed a weaker-than-expected increase in the Federal Reserve’s key inflation indicator (PCE index). This somewhat eased investors’ fears of a sharp slowdown in the pace of policy easing by the US Central Bank, Haitong said in a review.
Oil prices are rising on Monday after a significant decline last week.
The cost of February futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:25 a.m. is $72.2 per barrel, which is $0.36 (0.5%) higher than at the close of the previous trading. On Friday, these contracts fell by $0.94 (1.3%) to $71.84 per barrel.
January futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have risen in price by this time by $0.37 (0.54%) to $68.37 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the value of these contracts decreased by $0.72 (1.1%) to $68 per barrel.
Last week, Brent fell by 3%, WTI – by 4.6%.
On Monday, the market was supported by positive statistics from China published last weekend.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in China’s manufacturing industry increased to 50.3 points in November from 50.1 points a month earlier, according to the country’s State Statistical Office (SSO). Thus, the indicator reached a seven-month high. A PMI reading above 50 points indicates an increase in activity in the industrial sector, while a reading below 50 points indicates a decline. The indicator has been above this level for two months.
Traders’ attention is now focused on the OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting and the ministerial meeting, which were postponed from December 1 to December 5. The reason for the postponement was the participation of several ministers in the Kuwaiti summit.
Earlier, Bloomberg reported that the key OPEC+ countries have begun discussions about a possible further postponement of the oil production increase scheduled for January. According to the agency, the countries doubt that the market situation allows them to increase production in January and may postpone these plans for several months.
Oil prices rose on Friday for the third consecutive session and ended the week in the black for the first time in a month.
Market participants are trying to assess the impact of Hurricane Frances, which hit the Louisiana coast on Wednesday night. According to official figures, about 39% of US production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico were shut down due to the weather.
“The impact of the hurricane is still not fully known as the affected regions assess the damage to infrastructure,” said Schneider Electric analyst Robbie Fraser. Usually, offshore oil production recovers quite quickly after such events, the expert said, as quoted by Market Watch.
The cost of November futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 8:25 a.m. is $72.43 per barrel, which is $0.48 (0.67%) higher than at the close of the previous trading. On Thursday, these contracts rose by $1.36 (1.9%) to $71.97 per barrel.
October futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) increased in price by $0.48 (0.7%) to $69.45 per barrel. As a result of the previous session, the cost of these contracts increased by $1.66 (2.5%) to $68.97 per barrel.
Since the beginning of this week, Brent has risen in price by 2%, WTI – by 2.6%.
The growth of the oil market is constrained by concerns about the prospects for global demand.
On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its estimate of global oil demand growth in 2024 by 67 thousand barrels per day compared to last year, to 903 thousand bpd from the previously expected 970 thousand bpd.
Commenting on the forecast of a slowdown in demand growth this year, analysts noted the adjustment of expectations for oil consumption in China. Now the IEA expects that oil demand in China will grow by only 180 thousand bpd in 2024, to 16.7 million bpd. At the same time, at the beginning of the year, this parameter was estimated at 700 thousand bpd, and last month – about 300 thousand bpd.
