Oil prices are rising on Monday after a significant decline last week.
The cost of February futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:25 a.m. is $72.2 per barrel, which is $0.36 (0.5%) higher than at the close of the previous trading. On Friday, these contracts fell by $0.94 (1.3%) to $71.84 per barrel.
January futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have risen in price by this time by $0.37 (0.54%) to $68.37 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the value of these contracts decreased by $0.72 (1.1%) to $68 per barrel.
Last week, Brent fell by 3%, WTI – by 4.6%.
On Monday, the market was supported by positive statistics from China published last weekend.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in China’s manufacturing industry increased to 50.3 points in November from 50.1 points a month earlier, according to the country’s State Statistical Office (SSO). Thus, the indicator reached a seven-month high. A PMI reading above 50 points indicates an increase in activity in the industrial sector, while a reading below 50 points indicates a decline. The indicator has been above this level for two months.
Traders’ attention is now focused on the OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting and the ministerial meeting, which were postponed from December 1 to December 5. The reason for the postponement was the participation of several ministers in the Kuwaiti summit.
Earlier, Bloomberg reported that the key OPEC+ countries have begun discussions about a possible further postponement of the oil production increase scheduled for January. According to the agency, the countries doubt that the market situation allows them to increase production in January and may postpone these plans for several months.
Oil prices rose on Friday for the third consecutive session and ended the week in the black for the first time in a month.
Market participants are trying to assess the impact of Hurricane Frances, which hit the Louisiana coast on Wednesday night. According to official figures, about 39% of US production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico were shut down due to the weather.
“The impact of the hurricane is still not fully known as the affected regions assess the damage to infrastructure,” said Schneider Electric analyst Robbie Fraser. Usually, offshore oil production recovers quite quickly after such events, the expert said, as quoted by Market Watch.
The cost of November futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 8:25 a.m. is $72.43 per barrel, which is $0.48 (0.67%) higher than at the close of the previous trading. On Thursday, these contracts rose by $1.36 (1.9%) to $71.97 per barrel.
October futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) increased in price by $0.48 (0.7%) to $69.45 per barrel. As a result of the previous session, the cost of these contracts increased by $1.66 (2.5%) to $68.97 per barrel.
Since the beginning of this week, Brent has risen in price by 2%, WTI – by 2.6%.
The growth of the oil market is constrained by concerns about the prospects for global demand.
On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its estimate of global oil demand growth in 2024 by 67 thousand barrels per day compared to last year, to 903 thousand bpd from the previously expected 970 thousand bpd.
Commenting on the forecast of a slowdown in demand growth this year, analysts noted the adjustment of expectations for oil consumption in China. Now the IEA expects that oil demand in China will grow by only 180 thousand bpd in 2024, to 16.7 million bpd. At the same time, at the beginning of the year, this parameter was estimated at 700 thousand bpd, and last month – about 300 thousand bpd.
Brent crude oil prices may fall below $70 per barrel in the relatively near future, according to Ben Lukock, head of oil at Trafigura.
At the same time, he warned the market against being too pessimistic.
“It’s dangerous because there are so many unexpected things that can happen,” Lukock said, speaking at the Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC). – “I wouldn’t bet everything on a price decline.
Oil prices began to fall in mid-July on concerns about global demand and increased supply by OPEC+ countries and have now shown negative dynamics since the beginning of the year.
Torbjörn Thornqvist, the head of Gunvor, also shares the negative forecast.
“The world is now producing much more oil than it consumes, and this balance is expected to only worsen in the coming years,” Bloomberg quoted Thornqvist as saying at the APPAC conference.
Jeff Curry of Energy Pathways voiced a somewhat more optimistic view. He acknowledged the problems in China’s economy, but pointed out that the expected Federal Reserve rate cut could support investor sentiment.
“Growth in demand for oil and other energy will come from regions such as India, Africa and parts of Latin America in the future,” he said.
Benchmark oil prices are rising in the morning on the last working day of summer.
The cost of October futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 8:08 a.m. on Friday is $80.18 per barrel, which is $0.24 (0.3%) higher than at the close of the previous trading. The day before, these contracts rose in price by $1.29 (1.6%) to $79.94 per barrel.
October futures for Brent will expire at the end of the session on Friday. November contracts, which are more actively traded, are rising in price during trading by $0.22 (0.28%) to $79.04 per barrel.
October futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) increased in price by $0.18 (0.24%) to $76.09 per barrel. On Thursday, the contract rose by $1.39 (1.9%) to $75.91 per barrel.
The quotes are supported by tensions in the Middle East. In particular, Israeli Air Force fighters struck several Hezbollah rocket launchers in southern Lebanon that threatened Israel, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) press service said in a telegram channel.
Another positive factor for the oil market was the statistical data released the day before, which confirmed the stability of the US economy. The estimate of the country’s GDP growth in the second quarter was revised upward to 3% in terms of annualized rates from the previously announced 2.8%.
The rise in oil prices intensified on Friday afternoon in anticipation of a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Quotes for October futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange by 14:41 by the quarter increased by $1.16 (1.5%) to $78.38 per barrel.
The price of WTI futures for October in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) increased by $1.22 (1.67%) to $74.23 per barrel by the specified time.
The day before, both brands rose by 1.5%.
The quotes are supported by expectations of a reduction in the key interest rate in the United States. High rates increase the cost of debt service, which could slow economic activity in the country and reduce demand for fuel.
“The dollar is falling on expectations of a rate cut,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. – “Everyone is now talking about an upcoming 50 basis point cut in the Fed Funds rate, which would be a significant step.
The market expects to receive new signals about the Fed’s position from Powell’s speech at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, which begins at 17:00 CET.
On Monday, benchmark crude oil prices rose for the fifth consecutive trading session due to fears of possible supply disruptions due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
“Tensions in the Middle East, which could escalate at any time and push prices up further, are providing support,” said Barbara Lambrecht, commodities analyst at Commerzbank. According to her, “geopolitical risks are likely to continue to have a significant impact on oil price trends” this week, MarketWatch reports.
In addition, last week’s US statistics were better than expected, which calmed concerns about a possible recession in the country’s economy, Trading Economics writes. They also confirmed traders’ confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. This may help to increase demand for fuel.
Quotations for October futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 8:01 a.m. amounted to $79.88 per barrel, which is $0.22 (0.3%) higher than the level at the close of the previous trading. On Friday, these contracts rose by $0.5 (0.6%) to $79.66 per barrel.
September futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) are up $0.36 (0.5%) to $77.2 per barrel in the morning. At the end of the previous session, the price of these contracts increased by $0.65 (0.9%) to $76.84 per barrel.
Last week, the price of Brent rose by 3.7%, and WTI by 4.5%. Thus, oil finished the first week of five in the black.
