The U.S. Department of Energy has sharply raised its forecast for the price of Brent crude oil for both 2024 and 2025 due to the extension of production restrictions by OPEC+ countries. According to a new report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2024, the forecast for the price of Brent crude oil has been raised from $82.42/bbl to $87/bbl.
“As OPEC+ continues to cut oil production, we have lowered our 2024 global oil production growth forecast. The lower growth contributes to a significant reduction in global oil inventories in our forecast for the second quarter of 2024,” the report says.
The oil price forecast for 2025 has been raised from $79.48/bbl to $84.8/bbl.
Prices for benchmark crude oil are rising slightly on Tuesday morning, with quotes ending the previous session virtually unchanged.
The price of May futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange by 7:08 a.m. is $82.43 per barrel, which is $0.22 (0.27%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Monday, these contracts increased in price by 13 cents to $82.21 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for April in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time increased by $0.13 (0.17%) to $78.06 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the contract fell by 8 cents to $77.93 per barrel.
Market participants are awaiting the release of inflation data in the United States on Tuesday, as well as the publication of monthly reports by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In addition, traders are monitoring the compliance of OPEC+ countries with their voluntary commitments to reduce supplies, as well as the level of production in the United States, which has been near record levels since the end of January.
“OPEC and the U.S. Department of Energy are sending mixed signals, and in order for the market to clearly determine the direction of movement,” they need to come to the same conclusion, said Charu Chanana, an analyst at Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore.
Prices for benchmark crude oil are falling on Monday morning, continuing the decline of the past week.
The price of May futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:08 a.m. was $81.52 per barrel, which is $0.56 (0.68%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Friday, these contracts fell in price by $0.88 (1.1%) to $82.08 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for April in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time fell by $0.59 (0.76%) to $77.42 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the contract fell by $0.92 (1.2%) to $78.01 per barrel.
Over the past week, the international benchmark fell by 1.8%, while the North American benchmark fell by 2.5%.
Investors are being cautious ahead of this week’s release of US inflation data and monthly reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which could affect the market outlook, Trading Economics writes.
Traders are also following the truce talks between Israel and Hamas, which have not yet yielded significant results, and assessing China’s foreign trade statistics.
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, oil imports from China in the first two months of the year fell by about 5.7% to 10.9 million barrels per day.
Benchmark oil prices are moderately rising on Friday morning after a slight decline the day before, which did not prevent the quotes from ending in the black for the second month in a row.
The price of May futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 7:01 a.m. is $82.19 per barrel, which is $0.28 (0.34%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Thursday, these contracts fell in price by $0.24 (0.3%) to $81.91 per barrel.
Quotations for April futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time increased by $0.21 (0.27%) to $78.47 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, the contract fell by $0.28 (0.4%) to $78.26 per barrel.
In February, the price of Brent rose by 2.3%, WTI – by 3.2%, despite “various forces that put pressure on the global commodity market,” said FXTM analyst Lukman Otunuga.
“In any case, prices remain in a fairly wide range, and it will take a fundamental stimulus to shift the balance of power towards bulls or bears,” he said in an interview with MarketWatch. – “This could be an extension of OPEC+ supply cuts, increased geopolitical tensions, or a pleasant surprise from the Chinese economy.
Benchmark oil prices are falling on Monday morning after falling on Friday and last week.
The price of April futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 78:11 Q4 is $81.33 per barrel, which is $0.29 (0.36%) lower than at the close of the previous session. Last Friday, these contracts fell by $2.05 to $81.62 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for April in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time decreased by $0.33 (0.43%) to $76.16 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they fell by $2.12 to $76.49 per barrel.
Over the past week, both brands fell by more than 2%.
Traders are keeping an eye on the situation in the Middle East and are waiting for the OPEC+ meeting to discuss the extension of oil production restrictions for another quarter.
“We still expect OPEC+ to extend production cuts into the second quarter of 2024 and begin to gradually lift them only in the third quarter,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.
The bank believes that oil prices will fluctuate between $70 and $90 per barrel.
Meanwhile, data from the oilfield services company Baker Hughes showed that over the past week, the number of operating oil rigs in the United States increased by six to 503 units. Meanwhile, the number of gas rigs decreased by one to 120.
Oil prices are declining on Monday morning after rising by more than 6% last week.
The cost of April futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:11 a.m. is $81.85 per barrel, which is $0.34 (0.41%) lower than at the close of the previous trading. On Friday, these contracts rose by $0.56 (0.7%) to $82.19 per barrel.
March futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have fallen by $0.34 (0.44%) to $76.5 per barrel by this time. As a result of previous trading, the value of these contracts increased by $0.62 (0.8%) to $76.84 per barrel.
Trading Economics suggests that the market is undergoing a technical correction. Both Brent and WTI rose by 6.3% last week amid tensions in the Middle East, where the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues. In addition, the US military launched a series of strikes against Yemeni Houthi positions.
At the same time, the number of oil and gas drilling rigs in the United States as of February 9 reached its highest level since mid-December, rising to 623 from 619 over the week, according to Baker Hughes.
