The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) fell to 48.3 points in August 2026 from 50.1 points in July and was lower than the August 2025 figure (49.0 points), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported on its website.
The last time the BAI was in negative territory was in February 2026, when it stood at 45.9 points.
“Significant losses resulting from the widespread destruction of production facilities, warehouses, and logistics infrastructure, the blockage of seaports, high fuel prices, and a shortage of skilled workers limited economic activity among enterprises and negatively affected business sentiment,” the regulator noted.
At the same time, business activity was supported by steady consumer demand, international financial support, budgetary funding for infrastructure restoration and road construction, a stable situation in the energy sector, as well as seasonal factors.
Construction companies were the only sector among those surveyed to maintain positive assessments of their performance: the sectoral index stood at 50.7 points in August, compared to 54.2 a month earlier and 54.0 in August of last year.
Construction companies expected an increase in construction volumes, new orders, and purchases of raw materials and supplies, as well as continued growth in the volume of contractor services purchased, albeit at a slower pace.
In the services sector, the sectoral index rose to 49.5 points from 48.8 in July and exceeded the August 2025 figure (47.0 points). Companies maintained positive assessments of new orders and resumed optimistic expectations regarding the volume of services provided and those currently in progress.
Retail businesses reported weaker assessments: the sectoral index fell to 47.5 points from 50.8 in the previous month and 51.8 in August of last year. They expected a decline in sales and purchases of goods for resale, a further reduction in their inventories, and a decrease in profit margins.
Assessments from industrial firms were the most subdued: the sectoral index fell to 47.3 points in August from 50.7 in July and 48.7 in August 2025.
Unlike the previous month, manufacturers expected a decline in production volumes and new orders—particularly export orders—while forecasting an increase in inventories of raw materials and supplies.
Most of the surveyed companies expected price pressures to intensify for both purchases and their own products and services. Only construction companies forecast a slight slowdown in price growth.
Only construction companies planned to increase their workforce, while enterprises in manufacturing, trade, and the service sector expected a reduction in the number of employees, with the most significant decline expected in manufacturing.
The survey was conducted from August 4 to 21, 2026, with 586 enterprises participating: 43.7% from manufacturing, 25.9% from the service sector, 24.6% from trade, and 5.8% from construction.
Among the respondents, 30.9% were large enterprises, 29.2% were medium-sized, and 39.9% were small. Export and import operations were conducted by 35.0% of respondents; 8.0% engaged only in exports; 17.6% engaged only in imports; and 39.4% did not engage in any foreign economic operations.
