In its October inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine increased its estimate for the grain and legume harvest in 2025 to 61.5 million tons from 57.9 million tons in its July report, but lowered its estimate for the oilseed harvest to 19.3 million tons from 21.0 million tons.
“According to the NBU’s assumptions, in 2026-2027, grain and legume harvests will grow thanks to further increases in agricultural productivity and an increase in corn and other grain crops in regions less affected by climate change,” the document says.
However, according to the National Bank, the harvest of oilseeds, which are mainly grown in the southern regions, will be lower due to the negative impact of climate change, exacerbated by the long-term consequences of the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant for the region’s irrigation systems.
“The security situation in the frontline regions of the south will continue to have an impact, worsening conditions for the 2026 sowing campaign and slowing down the pace of land demining,” the report also says.
As a result, the National Bank has improved its grain harvest forecast for 2026 from 59.6 million tons to 62.9 million tons, and for 2027 from 60.4 million tons to 63.5 million tons.
At the same time, oilseed harvest expectations have been reduced to 21.4 million tons next year from 22.0 million tons, and to 22.2 million tons in 2027 from 22.8 million tons.
“However, the NBU expects the livestock sector to continue to make a negative contribution to agricultural value added due to a further reduction in livestock numbers (with the exception of poultry),” the report also notes.
According to the State Statistics Service, the volume of early crops (wheat, barley, rapeseed, legumes) as of October 1, 2025, reached 32.6 million tons, while the 2024 harvest yielded 31.9 million tons (+2.1%). The current growth is primarily due to higher yields of wheat (+3.9%) and legumes (+35%), while the barley harvest has practically reached last year’s level (-0.6%), and the rapeseed harvest is 10.7% lower than last year.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center made a video analysis of wheat production by the world’s leading countries for the period 1991-2024.
The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, supported the decision of the participants of the Black Sea Grain Initiative to extend the deal.
“I applaud the expansion of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. With 10 million tonnes of grain already exported from Ukraine through this initiative, this is good news for a world in dire need of access to grain and fertilizer,” Michel tweeted on Thursday.
At the same time, he highly appreciated the constant efforts of the United Nations in this direction, as well as its Secretary General António Guterres personally.
Earlier, Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Oleksandr Kubrakov said that the initiative for the safe transportation of agricultural products by the Black Sea was extended for another 120 days, the UN and Turkey remained guarantors of implementation.
According to Guterres, the grain initiative is needed to reduce food and fertilizer prices, as well as to prevent a global food crisis. He also stressed that the UN “is committed to work to remove obstacles to the export of food and fertilizers from Russia.”
In Istanbul on July 22, with the participation of the UN, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine, two documents were signed on the creation of a corridor for the export of grain from three ports on Ukrainian territory – Chornomorsk, Odessa and Yuzhny.
Ukraine since the beginning of the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of September 10, exported 10.29 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, which is 11.7% more than the figures for the same date of the previous MY.
According to the information and analytical portal of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine, to date, Ukraine exported 5.92 million tonnes of wheat (4.1% less compared to the same date 2020/2021 MY); 2.99 million tonnes of barley (up 24.7%); 1.34 million tonnes of corn (2.2 times more); and 24,700 tonnes of flour (33.7% less).
As of the indicated date, 14,300 tonnes of rye were also exported, which is 9.5 times more than the indicators of the last MY.
The Cabinet of Ministers proposes to the Verkhovna Rada to adopt the bill “On Amending the Customs Tariff of Ukraine regarding the temporary application of import duty rates on certain types of grain crops.”
Relevant bill No. 3310 was registered in parliament on April 7, 2020.
The text of the bill is not yet available on the Rada’s website. However, an informed source on the market, explained in a comment to Interfax-Ukraine that it was about canceling duties on the import of vegetables and cereals before July 1.
The Board of Directors of the Cereal Planet Group, a leading producer of cereals in Ukraine, has approved the decision to change the place of registration from Cyprus to Poland, the company has reported on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) on Friday.
According to the report, shareholders at an extraordinary meeting on August 12 made this decision. Now Cereal Planet is going through the registration process in the relevant authorities of Poland. The plans are to register a holding company of the group called Cereal Planet S.A. in Warsaw.
Cereal Planet produces weight grains for B2B under the OLIMP trademark – four product lines: Bulgur, Ridlan, Mayfayna, Zlatokositsa, and under the Lyuba Ferma trademark – animal feed mixtures. It exports cereals to more than 30 countries.
Cereal Planet, according to the company, occupies up to 10% of the Ukrainian cereal market. The monthly production volume is 4,500-5,000 tonnes.
The owners of the group are Anatoliy and Oleksandr Vlasenko (33.54% and 29.93% respectively), Oleksandr Slavhorodsky (29.93%), and Ihor Dobruskin (5.5%).
Ukraine as of July 22 had fully used quotas for duty-free exports of agricultural products to the EU on nine groups of goods, including honey, sugar, cereals and flour, processed starch, processed tomatoes, grape and apple juice, wheat, corn, and butter. According to a press release from the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC), the pace of quota use and revival of trade with the EU is noticeably accelerating, as on the same date last year seven quotas for duty-free exports from Ukraine to the EU were used.
“Potentially, quotas for barley (79% are now used), poultry (75%), malt and wheat gluten (58%), and starch (53%) will be used by the end of the year,” the association noted.
The UAC said additional quotas for eight groups of goods come in force from October 2017 for a period of three years: for honey, flour and cereals, processed tomatoes, grape and apple juice, oats, corn, wheat, and barley. As of July 22, five of the additional quotas were used: for honey, cereals, juice, wheat, and corn.
AGRI PRODUCTS, APPLE JUICE, CEREALS, CORN, DUTY-FREE EXPORTS, EU, GRAPE, HONEY, SUGAR, WHEAT
