According to Experts.news, the decline in the number of recorded attempts to illegally cross the state border has not yet been accompanied by a corresponding decrease in migration outflow from Ukraine through official border crossing points.
In the first half of 2026, border guards issued 7,523 citations for illegal border crossings or attempted illegal border crossings—approximately one-third fewer than a year earlier.
At the same time, official border statistics show that over the six-month period, Ukrainians left the country 7.13 million times and returned 6.89 million times.
Thus, the net difference between departures and returns amounted to 244,300 people. A year earlier, during the same period, it was comparable—about 251,000.
At first glance, these figures demonstrate a significant gap between illegal attempts to leave the country and the overall migration outflow. However, these are fundamentally different statistical categories.
244,300 is not the number of detected emigrants, but the arithmetic difference between official departures and arrivals of citizens during the first half of the year. Some of these people may return to Ukraine later.
Furthermore, this figure includes all citizens with legal grounds for crossing the border, specifically women, children, men in relevant categories, and other individuals.
The figure of 7,523, in turn, does not represent the number of Ukrainians who managed to leave the country illegally, but rather the number of administrative reports filed by border guards for detected illegal border crossings or attempts to do so.
However, the aggregate data show that the main demographic risk for Ukraine today is linked not only to illegal border crossings but also to the number of citizens who legally leave the country and subsequently do not return.
For the full year of 2025, the difference between the number of departures and returns of citizens amounted to 290,300 people. This was 1.5 times less than in 2024, when the negative balance reached nearly 443,000 people. Over the four years of full-scale war, according to OpenDataBot’s calculations, the cumulative difference between official departures and returns amounted to approximately 3.1 million citizens.
At the same time, in the first half of 2026 alone, the negative balance had already reached 244,300 people, which is about 84% of the figure for all of 2025.
June accounted for the bulk of this year’s difference: during that month, the number of people leaving Ukraine exceeded the number of returnees by 210,900. “OpenDataBot” attributes this, in part, to a seasonal increase in travel during the vacation period; therefore, final conclusions regarding annual migration can only be drawn based on the results for the whole of 2026.
Thus, the decline in the number of illegal attempts to cross the border represents a notable change compared to the peak year of 2024; however, this alone does not signify an end to the demographic outflow.
The number of registered marriages in Ukraine in the first half of this year rose by 15.9% compared to the same period last year—to 79,520—driven by increases in Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Lviv regions, the Ministry of Justice reported on its website.
According to the ministry’s data, at the same time, the number of divorces decreased by 4.1%—to 12,180, including those granted by court order—which fell by 9.3% to 460.
In the Dnipropetrovsk region, the number of registered marriages in January–June of this year increased nearly 2.7-fold—to 15,550; in the Lviv region, it rose by 88.2%, to 8,910; and in Kyiv, it increased by 38.3%, to 19,930.
According to the Ministry of Justice, Kyiv and these two regions together accounted for 55.8% of all marriages, whereas in the first half of last year, they accounted for only 36.4%.
The largest decline in the number of registered marriages was recorded in the Donetsk region—a 2.4-fold decrease to 0.23 thousand.
In the Kherson region, the decline was 26.7%—to 0.16 thousand, which is the lowest figure among all regions.
In other regions, the number of registered marriages fell by between 24.6% (Chernihiv Oblast) and 12% (Ternopil Oblast).
As for divorces, Ternopil, Zakarpattia, and Chernihiv Oblasts saw an increase ranging from 16.6% to 11%, while the largest decrease in this figure—excluding the frontline regions of Kherson and Donetsk—occurred in Zhytomyr and Poltava regions, by 19.6% and 18.9%, respectively.
In the Donetsk and Kherson regions, the number of registered divorces fell by 43.4% and 60%—to 56 and 20, respectively—while in Kyiv, it rose by 1.2%—to 1,800.
demographics, divorce, marriage, MINISTRY OF JUSTICE, UKRAINE
The worst birth-to-death ratio in the first half of 2026 was recorded in Ukraine’s frontline regions.
In Donetsk Oblast, there were 19 deaths for every newborn, and in Kherson Oblast, 14. In Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, the ratio was approximately one to six.
On average across Ukraine, there were nearly four deaths for every newborn. A year earlier, this ratio was one to three.
The best—though still negative—demographic balance among the regions was recorded in the Rivne, Volyn, and Zakarpattia regions. There, there were two deaths for every newborn.
In total, 73,292 thousand births and 259,853 thousand deaths were registered in Ukraine from January through June 2026, OpenDataBot reported on July 22, based on data from the Ministry of Justice.
birth rate, death rate, demographics, Donetsk Oblast, Kherson Oblast
In the first half of 2026, 8,352 thousand births were registered in Kyiv—about 11% of the total number of newborns in Ukraine.
Lviv Oblast took second place, with 6,617 thousand children born. Next were Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with 5,611 thousand newborns and Odesa Oblast with 5,450 thousand.
At the same time, the birth rate declined not only in frontline regions but also in relatively safe regions. In the Vinnytsia, Lviv, and Ternopil regions, the number of births decreased by approximately 20% compared to the first half of 2025.
The sharpest decline was recorded in the Donetsk region, where the number of newborns fell by about three times. In the Zaporizhzhia region, the figure dropped by 23%.
In total, 73,292 births were registered in Ukraine from January through June 2026, which is 16% fewer than a year earlier, OpenDataBot reported on July 22, citing data from the Ministry of Justice.
As of July 1, 2026, the number of pensioners in Ukraine stood at 9,976,600, a decrease of 190,500 since the beginning of the year, according to Opendatabot, citing data from the Pension Fund of Ukraine.
In the second quarter alone, the number of pension recipients decreased by 74,400 people. The total decline for the first half of the year has already exceeded the figure for all of 2025.
The average monthly pension payment as of early July was 7,272.68 UAH. At the same time, the actual amount of payments varies significantly depending on the region, length of insurance coverage, earnings, and type of pension.
The Pension Fund’s data does not cover the temporarily occupied territories, where Ukrainian authorities are unable to maintain a complete registry of benefit recipients.
Ukraine, pensioner, pension, demographics: The number of pensioners in Ukraine has fallen below 10 million
As of July 1, 2026, the number of pensioners in Ukraine stood at 9,976,600, a decrease of 190,500 since the beginning of the year, according to Opendatabot, citing data from the Pension Fund of Ukraine.
In the second quarter alone, the number of pension recipients decreased by 74,400 people. The total decline for the first half of the year has already exceeded the figure for all of 2025.
The average monthly pension payment as of early July was 7,272.68 UAH. At the same time, the actual amount of payments varies significantly depending on the region, length of service, earnings, and type of pension.
The Pension Fund’s data does not cover temporarily occupied territories, where Ukrainian authorities are unable to maintain a complete record of benefit recipients.
