To achieve climate neutrality by 2050, Ukraine needs to attract approximately EUR550 billion in additional investment beyond what it is currently investing in decarbonization.
This was reported in a press release by the DIXI Group think tank, citing new data from the Climate Neutrality Tool, developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) specifically for Ukraine as part of the “Green Agenda for Armenia, Moldova, and Ukraine” project with support from the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida).
“According to new data from the Climate Neutrality Tool—a model developed by SEI specifically for Ukraine—achieving climate neutrality by 2050 is both realistic and feasible,” the center noted.
As stated in the press release, SEI analyzed the sectors that have the greatest impact on greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine and assessed their potential for transitioning to a clean economy. In particular, the energy sector has the greatest investment needs: approximately EUR 311 billion. This is followed by transportation—approximately EUR133 billion—and industry—EUR90 billion. Funding will not come solely from the public sector but will be shared between public and private entities.
SEI transferred the Climate Neutrality Tool to the Green Transition Office and, in May, conducted training for government officials on its use. Ukrainian government representatives gained the analytical capabilities and expert knowledge needed to assess decarbonization pathways, plan for green reconstruction, and support both Ukraine’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) and its Low-Carbon Development Strategy through 2050.
SEI’s main partner in Ukraine is the Green Transition Office, an independent advisory body under the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture of Ukraine.
The project is funded by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida). The tool covers 55 measures identified as the most effective for reducing emissions in Ukraine and enables policymakers and experts to create and compare various scenarios regarding emissions reductions, investment needs, GDP growth, and new jobs.
“We have developed a practical tool that allows Ukraine to continuously analyze and update its transition path to a clean economy. As new data becomes available and political priorities shift, the government can easily rerun the model and make informed decisions based on the latest data,” said Gotham Mutkumaran, an expert in energy system modeling at SEI Tallinn.
CLIMATE NEUTRALITY, DECARBONIZATION, DIXI Group, INVESTMENTS, SEI
Electricity imports to Ukraine from June 8 to 14 rose by 63% compared to the previous week—to 100.6 thousand MWh, the DIXI Group analytical center reported on Tuesday, citing data from Energy Map.
“Compared to the previous week, imports increased across all sources,” the center noted.
At the same time, exports fell by 38% to 17.2 thousand MWh.
According to Energy Map, Hungary accounted for the largest share of imports last week—40,000 MWh, or 39.8%. Slovakia accounted for 27,900 MWh (27.7%), Romania – 23.5 thousand MWh (23.4%), Poland – 9.2 thousand MWh (9.1%), and Moldova – 0.03 thousand MWh (<0.1%).
The highest growth rates in imports were recorded from Moldova—a 2.5-fold increase. Imports from Slovakia and Hungary increased by 86% and 83%, respectively; from Romania—by 47%; and from Poland—by 5%.
Meanwhile, in the export structure, Hungary’s share amounted to 7.3 thousand MWh (42.6%), Romania’s share was 6.4 thousand MWh (37.3%), Moldova’s was 3.4 thousand MWh (19.9%), and Slovakia’s was 0.04 thousand MWh (0.2%).
Compared to the previous week, exports decreased by 36–89% in most directions. At the same time, supplies to Romania increased 2.8-fold. Electricity exports to Poland have not taken place since November 2025.
In April 2026, Ukraine reduced its electricity imports by 41%—to 558,300 MWh, according to the DIXI Group analytical center, citing data from Energy Map.
“This is the second consecutive month of declining volumes of purchases from abroad,” the center noted.
At the same time, exports rose by 10%—to 33,300 MWh—but remained insignificant and occurred only during specific hours of temporary surplus in Ukraine’s power grid. By the end of the month, Ukraine had imported 17 times more electricity than it exported.
As explained by DIXI Group, the decline in imports and the modest growth in exports in April were driven by several factors. On the one hand, predominantly warm and clear weather, as well as longer daylight hours, contributed to increased generation from solar power plants and reduced the load on the power grid due to lower consumption. On the other hand, the security situation remained tense: at least three waves of heavy shelling were recorded during the month (on April 1–2, 3, and 16), resulting in infrastructure damage and limitations on available generation. An additional factor was the temporary reinstatement of differentiated price caps starting April 1, which reduced the economic attractiveness of imports during certain hours.
Under these conditions, consumption restrictions were periodically applied to balance the power system, but they were significantly less extensive than in March.
Hungary accounted for the largest share of imports in April—305,600 MWh, or 55%. Poland and Romania accounted for 125,200 MWh and 124,200 MWh, respectively—22% each. Meanwhile, Moldova accounted for 3.2 thousand MWh (1%), and Slovakia for 0.13 thousand MWh (<0.1%).
For comparison: in April 2025, imports amounted to 187.0 thousand MWh—three times less than in the reporting month.
“The average utilization of the permitted transmission capacity in April was 36.9% of the approved nominal value (2.1 GW),” DIXI Group reported. In turn, in March of this year, this figure stood at 60.4%. The maximum value of 88.4% was recorded on April 19 between 9:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m.
The nominal capacity limit for imports from EU countries to Ukraine and Moldova has been 2.45 GW since January. At the same time, part of this capacity is used for electricity imports to Moldova, so approximately 2,100 MW of commercial imports are available to Ukraine. However, the amount of permitted import capacity for each country in the bloc is dynamic and may vary depending on the operational situation in the countries’ power systems.
In October 2025, Ukraine imported 353.9 thousand MWh of electricity, which is 2.5 times more than in September, according to the DIXI Group analytical center, citing data from Energy Map.
“This is the highest monthly import figure since the beginning of the year. At the same time, exports fell sevenfold to 90.8 thousand MWh, which was the first decline in the last five months,” the center reported.
According to DIXI Group, the sharp increase in imports is due to the deterioration of the situation in the energy system caused by massive shelling of energy infrastructure. In particular, during October, Russian attacks damaged, among other things, thermal and hydroelectric power facilities, which led to a power shortage. As a result, emergency and scheduled hourly power cuts for the population were resumed, as well as restrictions on consumption for industry and business.
The situation was exacerbated by a drop in temperature. Low output from residential solar power plants due to cloudy weather, as well as the active use of electric heaters before the start of the heating season, placed an additional burden on the power system.
Electricity imports in October were wave-like in nature, due to enemy shelling. In particular, after a massive strike on October 10, external supplies rose sharply – on October 11, imports reached 19.0 thousand MWh, which is 141.5% more than the previous day.
A similar situation repeated itself after the attack on October 22: on October 23-24, there was a sharp increase in imports to 19.8 thousand MWh and 23.4 thousand MWh, respectively, or +64.8% and +94.4% compared to October 22. At the end of the month, after another large-scale attack on October 30, Ukraine was again forced to increase external purchases: on October 31, imports amounted to 22.4 thousand MWh (+76.9% compared to the previous day).
In the structure of imports by direction of electricity supply, Hungary accounts for more than 50% – 180.0 thousand MWh (50.9%). This is followed by Poland with 80.2 thousand MWh (22.7%) and Romania with 76.9 thousand MWh (21.7%).
The maximum agreed commercial capacity for imports from the EU from December 2024 is 2.1 GW. On average, in October 2025, capacity utilization was 22.6%, with a maximum on October 18 between 20:00 and 21:00 (84.4%) and the only hour of the month when no electricity was imported (October 3 between 22:00 and 23:00). At the same time, during peak morning and evening consumption hours, capacity utilization increases significantly.
In addition to the commercial capacity of 2.1 GW for Ukraine, an additional 0.25 GW of emergency assistance is available from neighboring ENTSO-E operators as “insurance” at critical moments. Thus, emergency assistance was provided during October from Poland, both in the form of additional electricity with a total volume of 28.8 thousand MWh and in the form of supplies of surplus electricity to Poland (5.25 thousand MWh). There is no public information available on other neighbouring power systems.
In turn, the main volumes of electricity exports in October were carried out during hours of minimum domestic consumption – mainly at night and early in the morning – from 0:00 to 6:00.
In terms of export structure by destination, Hungary prevails with 39.3 thousand MWh (43.2%), Moldova with 31.1 thousand MWh (34.3%), and Romania with 14.9 thousand MWh (16.4%).
“As a result, imports in October exceeded exports by almost four times – the negative balance in October amounted to 263.0 thousand MWh,” DIXI Group concluded.
Overall, based on the results of the first 10 months of 2025, Ukraine is a net importer of electricity, with a negative balance of 168.7 thousand MWh for this period.
