According to Fixygen analysts, the cryptocurrency market in the coming weeks will depend on inflows into spot BTC and ETH ETFs, expectations regarding the Fed rate, the dynamics of the U.S. tech sector, regulatory decisions in Washington, and the continued dominance of Bitcoin over altcoins.
Following a period of inflows, the market has faced significant outflows from spot cryptocurrency ETFs. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, this remains one of the key indicators of institutional demand. A return to sustained inflows could quickly improve investor sentiment and support a recovery in BTC and ETH. Continued outflows, conversely, will intensify pressure on the largest crypto assets and limit the growth potential of the entire market.
The second key factor remains the policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the dynamics of U.S. bond yields. Cryptocurrencies are still perceived by investors as risky assets, so rising expectations of tighter Fed monetary policy typically dampen demand for BTC, ETH, and altcoins. Falling yields and expectations of a more accommodative policy, on the other hand, could bring some capital back to the crypto market.
The third factor is the state of the U.S. tech sector. This week, cryptocurrencies reacted to sentiment surrounding Nvidia and growth stocks, indicating that the crypto market remains linked to the U.S. tech sector. If tech stocks continue their recovery, this could support risk appetite and help Bitcoin stay at the top of its current range. A new sell-off on the Nasdaq and in growth stocks, on the other hand, could intensify the correction in the crypto market.
Another key factor is the regulation of digital assets in the U.S. The market is monitoring the progress of bills related to the structure of the crypto market, the status of digital assets, rules for exchanges, and the regulation of stablecoins. Clearer rules could support the sector and attract institutional investors. However, strict requirements for trading platforms, stablecoin issuers, and DeFi infrastructure could trigger a new wave of volatility.
The fifth factor remains Bitcoin’s high share of market capitalization and the weakness of altcoins. As long as BTC holds more than half of the entire crypto market, a full-fledged altseason remains unlikely. For altcoins to grow independently, they need a new influx of liquidity, a reduction in Bitcoin’s dominance, and an improvement in overall risk appetite.
Thus, the near-term dynamics of cryptocurrencies will depend not only on the technical picture for BTC and ETH but also on external macro factors. Provided that outflows from ETFs continue, expectations regarding the Fed remain hawkish, and altcoins remain weak, the market may remain in a mode of cautious consolidation. A return of institutional demand, stabilization of tech stocks, and clearer regulatory signals could create conditions for a new attempt at growth.
Despite the full-scale war, Ukrainian business continues to demonstrate high dynamics in obtaining the status of Authorized Economic Operators (AEO): over the 4 years of the program, 48 Ukrainian companies have received 50 AEO authorizations. This status gives companies the highest degree of trust and a number of simplifications in customs procedures.
This dynamics of Ukrainian companies coincides with the dynamics of most EU countries in the first 4 years of the program, and sometimes exceeds it. The biggest “jump” in AEOs occurred in the fourth year of the program, when “local simplifications” without authorizations were abolished, which was not the case in any EU country.
For comparison, the dynamics of AEO for the first 4 years of the program in the EU (2008-2011):
– more than half of the countries (17 Member States) had similar (Denmark, Ireland, Slovenia, Czech Republic) or lower (Finland, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Greece, etc.) rates of increase in AEO authorizations;
– 8 countries had a higher rate of increase in AEO authorizations, in particular, the United Kingdom*, Austria, Belgium, and Sweden;
– only 3 countries out of 28 EU countries (France, Germany, the Netherlands) increased AEOs at a much higher rate than Ukraine. These countries generally have much stricter requirements for companies to preserve and restore documents and other business processes, the reliability of which is a condition for obtaining this status. Therefore, the authorization of enterprises did not require a large number of additional requirements.
Currently, there is every reason to expect a positive trend in the number of AEO authorizations obtained by Ukrainian businesses: 31 more applications are pending at the State Customs Service. This demonstrates the interest of domestic businesses in the program.
It is worth reminding that AEO is a special status that demonstrates a high level of trust in a business entity. It provides customs simplifications and advantages in international trade, which can also compensate for a number of difficulties at the border caused by external circumstances. The AEO status opens up opportunities for enterprises to develop and compete in foreign and domestic markets.
In Ukraine, the AEO program began operating in August 2020 after the adoption of the necessary legislative changes in the process of approximation to European customs law and standards of foreign economic activity.
As reported, as of November 7, 2023, the provisions of the Customs Code of Ukraine regarding the possibility of customs clearance of goods without presenting them to the customs authorities became invalid. In order to continue to use the possibility of clearing goods at the facilities of enterprises, the State Customs Service recommended that businesses obtain the status of an authorized economic operator.
Having AEO authorization allows a company to take advantage of all the benefits of AEO and will facilitate access to the simplifications provided for by the Customs Code and the Convention on a Common Transit Procedure. In particular, the simplifications include reducing the level of risk in relation to the goods being transported, prioritizing customs formalities and releasing goods at the company’s location.
Earlier, roundtables were devoted to customs reform, where the event’s organizer and moderator Maksim Urakin stated that the State Customs Service provides 35-40% of state budget revenues, and these figures have remained stable in recent years. That is why customs reforms are so important for the country.
Dynamics of prices for main agricultural products in structure of Ukraine’s export in 2020-2022
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
Dynamics of changes in population of Ukraine from 1991-2022
SSC of Ukraine
Quotes of futures for US stock indices do not show a single dynamics at the auction on Tuesday.
The US stock market has declined in the previous four sessions, and risk appetite remains low due to investors’ fears that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) rapid tightening of monetary policy will dampen economic activity and corporate profits, Market Watch notes.
CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Jamie Dimon said the day before that the S&P 500 index could fall by another 20% amid the ongoing tightening of monetary policy by the Fed. This year, the stock indicator has already lost 24%.
Dimon warned that the US economy could fall into recession in the next six to nine months.
Yields on two-year US Treasuries, which are sensitive to a hike in the base rate, rose above 4.3% on Tuesday, close to the maximum since 2007. The interest rate on ten-year US Treasury bonds rose during trading above the 4% mark.
“The 10-year US Treasuries are back above 4% and we expect the pressure on the US stock market to continue,” said Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. profits and cause disappointment in the prospects of the companies.”
S&P 500 companies’ third-quarter combined earnings are up 4.5% year-over-year, according to Refinitiv’s forecast. Profits of energy companies are expected to have grown by 6.3%, banks – have decreased by 1.6%.
Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co. will release quarterly results this week. Bank shares lost 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.5% respectively in early trading on Tuesday.
American Airlines Group Inc. rose by 4.3%. The airline improved its forecasts for revenue and revenue per marginal passenger turnover in the third quarter.
Shares of Delta Air Lines Inc. add 2.8% to the price. The airline said Tuesday it is investing $60 million in flying taxi developer Joby Aviation Inc. and intends to use air taxis to deliver passengers to airports in the future, bypassing traffic jams in New York and Los Angeles.
Joby shares rose 18%.
The value of the December E-mini futures for the S&P 500 fell by 0.1% to 3621.75 points by 15:50 Moscow time on Tuesday. Quotation of the December E-mini futures on the Dow Jones index increased by this time by 0.02%, to 29266 points. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 for December fell 0.14% to 10969.5 points.
Dynamics of changes in population of ukraine from 1991-2022
SSC of Ukraine , graphics of the Club of Experts
