From November 3 to 8, 2025, the crypto market experienced a sharp decline and subsequent partial stabilization. Bitcoin fell to the $99–101 thousand range on November 4 and closed the week near $106–107 thousand, remaining below recent highs.
Drivers of the week. The market started with a decline on November 3–4 amid cautious signals from the Fed and increased appetite for profit-taking after a weak October. According to media estimates, the beginning of November brought a continued decline in major coins, with Bitcoin falling about 18% from its recent record high.
Bitcoin ETFs in the US recorded net outflows on certain days of the week. On November 3, 4, and 6-7, there were negative cumulative flows, which put pressure on the price.
Ethereum was volatile following the market. On November 3–4, ETH fell by almost 9% per day, then partially recovered and traded at around $3,400–3,450 on November 8.
Funds and events. Publications noted that uncertainty about interest rates and geopolitics had dampened risk appetite. At the same time, interest in crypto-based products remained strong in the sector, including discussions of new exchange-traded funds, which supports medium-term expectations.
The week’s results for key indicators are as follows:
1) BTC range on November 3–8: maximum around $111 thousand on November 3, minimum around $99 thousand on November 4.
2) ETF flows: net outflows on certain days, including November 4 and November 6–7.
3) ETH range: $3,060–3,650, closing the week at around $3,440 on November 8.
The basis for forecasts and their scenarios is neutral-volatile. Support for BTC is visible in the range of $98–101 thousand, and maintaining it preserves the chances for consolidation and attempts to grow to $110–114 thousand. Risks are associated with continued outflows from ETFs and a general rotation in risk assets. An increase in inflows into funds and the absence of negative news regarding regulators could return the price to the upper limit of the range. If $98,000 is broken downwards, the risk of acceleration to $92–95,000 increases, with a subsequent search for a new balance. Estimates are based on price dynamics and ETF flows on November 3–8.
Over the past month, Ethereum (ETH) rose to the $4,000+ zone with multiple “defenses” of the $4,000 level at the end of October, after which it entered a correction amid mixed flows in crypto ETFs and a pause in regulatory decisions in the US. As of Wednesday morning, the price was hovering around $3,300, below last week’s highs.
What drove the market last month?
After several rebounds from $4,000 at the end of October, activity rose above average, but momentum faded at the $4,050–4,200 support levels.
The decisions on new crypto ETFs expected in October were postponed due to the government shutdown in the US; however, some products still entered the exchange under a simplified procedure, which shifted the “main” catalysts to November.
In September, the SEC approved unified listing standards for commodity ETPs on leading US exchanges, which simplified the launch of new crypto ETFs and supported expectations for the expansion of product lines (including multi-crypto funds). I
Now let’s analyze the main factors for November–December (base scenarios).
1) Moderately positive. The launch of new ETFs/updated prospectuses and the resumption of institutional inflows to ETH are strengthening demand; technically, a return above $3,800–4,000 opens the way for a retest of the autumn highs.
2) Neutral. Overestimated expectations for ETFs and subdued on-chain indicators keep ETH in a wide range of $3,000–3,800 without a trend; local rallies are quickly fixed. (Benchmark: recent “sell zones” of $4,050–4,200).
3) Risky. Increased macro volatility or new outflows from ETH ETFs could trigger a decline to $2,800–3,100; in this case, the market will focus on medium-term support, and decisive drivers will be postponed until 2026. (Examples of data on outflows/capital flows into altcoins appeared this week).
Interestingly, Citi in September cited a base case estimate of $4,300 at the end of the year with a bullish scenario of $6,400 under favorable macro conditions and the use of Ethereum applications; the bearish case is $2,200.
After the spring network updates, the industry is discussing the next steps in the Ethereum roadmap; industry reviews mention the following UX and scalability improvements, but the key issue for the market in the coming weeks remains the regulatory block on ETFs in the US.
Note: forecasts are probabilistic and depend on macro conditions, ETF news, and fund inflows/outflows; investment decisions should be made with risk in mind.
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The bitcoin rate rose above $35 thousand on Tuesday for the first time since May last year.
As of 18:15, it gained 9% and amounted to $34.362 thousand. During the session, the rate reached $35.142 thousand.
The rise in the value of bitcoin is driven by growing investor expectations that the United States will soon approve the creation of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for direct investment in cryptocurrencies, Market Watch reports.
In the past, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has repeatedly rejected applications from investment companies to launch such ETFs, arguing that there are high risks of market price manipulation. However, cryptocurrency industry experts believe that the situation will soon change.
On Monday, the U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that its August decision, which overturned the SEC’s earlier ban on the conversion of the Grayscale Investments cryptocurrency trust into a spot bitcoin ETF, should come into force.
Experts note that the emergence of such products on the market will facilitate the wider adoption of bitcoin.
If bitcoin ETFs are approved, we may see a “historic jump in the value of the cryptocurrency” and a market shift to a bullish trend, says Alex Adelman, CEO and co-founder of Lolli.
BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity Investments are among the companies ready to offer similar products.
This tool “will give institutional and retail investors new ways to grow their bitcoin investments within the current regulatory framework”, Adelman says.
The stock prices of cryptocurrency companies Coinbase Global Inc., MicroStrategy Inc., Riot Platforms Inc. and Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. are up 13%, 14.8%, 14.5% and 17.5%, respectively.
