In 2025-2026 marketing year, the export of rapeseed from Ukraine may decrease to the lowest level since 2022-2023 MY and will amount to about 2.7-2.8 mln tonnes, down 13% compared to the current season, according to APK-Inform news agency.
The analysts noted that the reason for such a decrease is the expected decrease in oilseed production, as well as a possible increase in demand from the processing industry.
According to experts, in 2025, the production of rapeseed in Ukraine may decrease to the lowest level since 2022 due to the reduction of winter crops area as a result of moisture deficit in the fall of 2024 and poor wintering of crops in a number of major crop producing regions. In addition, cold weather, frosts and snow in the first decade of April may significantly worsen the situation.
According to APK-Inform estimates, the planted areas under rapeseed are 1.34 mln ha (-4%), while the harvested area may not exceed 1.17 mln ha (-10%) and may be even lower due to unfavorable weather conditions. The forecast of oilseed production in 2025 is about 3.35-3.4 mln tons (-8%).
As for the distribution of rapeseed in the new season, analysts believe that the situation will largely depend on the tariff policy of China and the US.
“We are currently witnessing the deterioration of trade relations between the US and China, the US and Canada, and between China and Canada, which will lead to the redistribution of trade flows of canola and processed products, and may change farmers’ plans for sowing this crop in major regions,” the agency said.
Several countries may try to replace Canadian oil and meal on the Chinese market by increasing production of rapeseed/canola, but the question is in the timing – the products are already in short supply and China needs to increase supplies now, not in the new season.
Due to the trade wars, China is expected to increase its demand for Ukrainian rapeseed oil and meal in the new season, which may increase domestic processing, but it will depend on the ratio of the cost of raw materials and oil on the Ukrainian market. In addition, it may be more difficult for Ukrainian companies to build up stocks, as farmers are in no hurry to sell raw materials under forward contracts.
“The trade may remain weak until the impact of frost and snow on the oilseeds in a number of European countries and in Ukraine in particular is assessed. It is also important to keep in mind that if the situation with tariffs does not change before the new season and all duties for Canada remain in force, Canadian canola may increase its presence on the European market, and, therefore, the window for the Ukrainian oilseed remains limited to the first half of the season,” APK-Inform summarized.
In 2024, Milk Alliance Group, one of the leaders in dairy processing in Ukraine, supplied its products to 27 countries, although in the pre-war period the export geography included 38 countries, said Serhiy Vovchenko, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Group.
“Last year, we exported products worth only about UAH 1 billion. This is not enough. At the same time, we received about UAH 8.6 billion in revenue,” he said at the Business Wisdom Summit 2025 on Friday.
Mr. Vovchenko noted that to be competitive, a food processing company needs to keep a close eye on three things: innovation, quality, and price.
Speaking about Milk Alliance, he expressed confidence that its products have no problems with innovation and quality. However, its cost is currently higher than in many European countries where producers receive subsidies from the European budget. This makes Ukrainian dairy products uncompetitive in the international arena.
“The cost of raw materials in our dairy industry accounts for 68-70% (of the total cost – IF-U). The state, business, and associations need to work to ensure that we are competitive in the third component, the price. Then we will be known, much more widely and in demand, and the currency will come to the state. After all, what is a billion hryvnias? It’s nothing at all. We used to sell much more, three times more for export. And now, unfortunately, we are at a standstill,” emphasized the Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Milk Alliance Group.
Mr. Vovchenko also said that after a series of trips to international congresses, he became convinced of the non-competitiveness of Ukrainian dairy products in the European market and the biased attitude of European colleagues towards Ukrainian producers. In his opinion, state protectionism can solve this problem.
“The duty-free trade agreement will expire on June 5. This is a very serious challenge for us. If it is not extended, we will lose. If a duty is added, we will not be competitive in the European market at all,” he said, adding that the way out is to increase exports to the Middle East and North Africa.
Milk Alliance Group is a leader in the Ukrainian dairy industry with five powerful dairy processing plants: Yagotynsky Butter Plant, Yagotynske for Children baby food plant, Pyriatyn Cheese Plant, Zolotonosha Butter Processing Plant and Bashtanka Cheese Plant.
The company specializes in the production of milk, fermented milk products, butter, cheese and dried dairy products, which it sells under the brands Yagotynske, Yagotynske for Children, Pyriatyn, Slavia, Zlatokrai, and Milk Alliance.
According to the company’s website, in 2024, the Group’s enterprises harvested 284.22 thousand tons of milk, produced 16.21 thousand tons of cheese, 3.671 thousand tons of butter, 48.6 thousand tons of milk, 53.94 thousand tons of fermented milk products, and 11.89 thousand tons of baby food.
In January-March 2025, imports of tin and tin products increased by 43.5% to $890 thousand ($277 thousand in March).
Exports decreased to $55 thousand (against $81 thousand a year earlier), of which $50 thousand in March.
In 2024, imports amounted to $3.19 million (+16.9%), exports – $389 thousand (+144%).
Tin is used mainly as a safe, non-toxic, corrosion-resistant coating in its pure form or in alloys with other metals. The main industrial applications of tin are in white tinplate (tinned iron) for food containers, in solders for electronics, in house pipelines, in bearing alloys, and in coatings made of tin and its alloys.
The most important tin alloy is bronze (with copper).
Imports of zinc and products in the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 17.8% to $9.75 million ($3.74 million in March).
Exports increased sixfold to $266 thousand ($89 thousand in March), while in 2024, the figure was $44 thousand for the same period.
At the end of 2024, imports amounted to $58.6 million (+27.5%), exports – $563 thousand (+4.3 times).
Pure zinc metal is used to restore precious metals, protect steel from corrosion and for other purposes.
In March 2025, China’s exports grew by 12.4% year-on-year, reaching $313.9 billion. This growth was significantly higher than the forecasted 4.4% and was the highest in the last five months. The main reason for this jump was the desire of Chinese manufacturers to speed up deliveries abroad before the new high US duties on Chinese goods come into effect.
On April 10, the administration of President Donald Trump increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, citing trade imbalances and problems with fentanyl. In response, China imposed retaliatory duties of 125% on American goods and restricted exports of rare earth elements.
Experts warn that the March export growth is temporary. Exports are expected to decline in the coming months due to new tariffs and weakening global demand.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Citi have already lowered their forecasts for China’s GDP growth in 2025 to 4% and 4.2%, respectively. At the same time, China’s imports fell by 4.3% in March, indicating weak domestic demand. Purchases of soybeans fell particularly sharply – by 36.8%, which may be due to trade restrictions and delays in shipments from Brazil.
In response to the deterioration of trade relations with the United States, China is stepping up efforts to diversify its export destinations, increasing supplies to Southeast Asia, Africa, and India.
During his visit to Southeast Asia, President Xi Jinping emphasized the need to strengthen regional trade ties and counter unilateral protectionist measures.
Thus, despite the short-term growth in exports, the Chinese economy faces serious challenges amid the escalation of the trade war with the United States and weakening domestic demand.
In January-March this year, Ukraine reduced exports of semi-finished carbon steel products in physical terms by 34.8% year-on-year to 294,202 thousand tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS) on Tuesday, exports of carbon steel semi-finished products fell by 37.4% to $138.386 million in monetary terms.
The main exports were to Bulgaria (43.06% of supplies in monetary terms), Turkey (20.15%) and Poland (9.44%).
During the period, Ukraine imported 2.902 thousand tons of semi-finished products worth $2.339 million from the Czech Republic (83.03%), Italy (16.59%) and Germany (0.38%).
As reported, in 2024, Ukraine increased exports of carbon steel semi-finished products in physical terms by 56.7% compared to 2023 – up to 1 million 886.090 thousand tons, while revenue in monetary terms increased by 52.4% to $927.554 million. The main exports were made to Bulgaria (32.06% of supplies in monetary terms), Egypt (18.50%) and Turkey (11.14%).
In 2024, Ukraine imported 306 tons of semi-finished products worth $278 thousand from the Czech Republic (88.13%), Romania (7.19%), and Poland (2.88%), while in 2023 it imported 96 tons worth $172 thousand.
