Exports of IT services in 2024 will decline by 4-6% compared to 2023 and may amount to $6.3-6.4 billion, Lviv IT Cluster predicts.
“The decline in IT services exports that began in 2023 continues. Under the optimistic scenario, by the end of 2024, it will decrease by 4% compared to 2023. Under the pessimistic scenario, this figure will reach 6%. We should expect $6.3-6.4 billion. Thus, in 2024, the tech industry will not show growth for the second year in a row compared to last year,” follows a study by IT Research Ukraine conducted by the Lviv IT Cluster.
At the same time, despite the challenges of a full-scale war, the technology industry in Ukraine remains one of the key industries and provides significant foreign exchange earnings. The IT sector is the largest exporter of services in Ukraine, accounting for 38% of total exports of services. In total exports, IT ranks second after food exports, the study says.
According to the data, 2118 IT companies operate in Ukraine. Half of them are service companies, including 47% outsourcing and 3% outstaffing. Another 31% of companies are product companies. The rest have a mixed business model.
45.7% of the IT companies surveyed said they do not plan to open new representative offices in the short term, 17.1% plan to open in Ukraine, and 34.3% abroad. Most want to open a representative office in Poland. In addition, 6% of CEOs plan to close their office in Ukraine.
The number of specialists working in the IT industry in 2024 decreased by 1.6% to 302 thousand. Most of them, 238 thousand people, live and work in Ukraine. The number of Ukrainian specialists abroad also decreased to 62-64 thousand people against 65 thousand in 2023, the study says. The average age of a Ukrainian IT specialist is 31.5 years. The majority of respondents, 68%, do not have children.
The median income of IT professionals in Ukraine, according to IT Research Ukraine 2024, decreased by 1.7% compared to 2023 and amounts to $2590. At the same time, the majority of respondents reported that their expenses for rent, food, and other basic needs have increased.
Most 97% of IT companies donate and implement projects that bring Ukraine closer to victory. 67.6% of surveyed companies have mobilized specialists on their staff. IT companies support their employees serving in the Ukrainian Defense Forces by providing them with job security, fixed salaries, or partial compensation.
Ukraine has exported 17.764 mln tonnes of grains and pulses since the beginning of 2024-2025 marketing year as of November 27, of which 3.365 mln tonnes were shipped this month, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported, citing the data of the State Customs Service of Ukraine. According to the report, as of the same date last year, the total shipments amounted to 12.693 mln tons, including 3.453 mln tons in November.
In terms of crops, since the beginning of the current season, Ukraine has exported 8.73 million tons of wheat (989 thousand tons in November), 1.841 million tons of barley (142 thousand tons), 10.8 thousand tons of rye (0.2 thousand tons), and 6.886 million tons of corn (2.205 million tons).
Total exports of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of November 27 are estimated at 30.5 thsd tonnes (5 thsd tonnes in November), including 27.8 thsd tonnes of wheat (4.5 thsd tonnes).
Ukraine exported 17.497 mln tonnes of grains and pulses since the beginning of 2024-2025 marketing year (MY) as of November 25, including 3.098 mln tonnes shipped in November, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported, citing the data of the State Customs Service.
According to the report, as of November 27, 2023, the total shipments amounted to 12.693 mln tonnes, including 3.453 mln tonnes in November.
At the same time, in general, in 2024-2025 MY the exports of all major crops are significantly higher than last year. Thus, since the beginning of the current season, Ukraine has exported 8.629 mln tonnes of wheat (5.755 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY), 1.86 mln tonnes of barley (870 thsd tonnes), 10.8 thsd tonnes of rye (0.9 thsd tonnes), and 6.689 mln tonnes of corn (5.936 mln tonnes).
The total export of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of November 25 is estimated at 30.1 thsd tonnes (in 2023/24 MY – 48.8 thsd tonnes), including 27.4 thsd tonnes of wheat (46.7 thsd tonnes).
The government maintains its forecast of 7% growth in Ukrainian exports in 2025, despite a smaller-than-expected harvest of late crops this year, Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade Representative of Ukraine Taras Kachka said.
“This is an absolutely objective, I would even say trivial forecast. Obviously, there may be a more optimistic forecast,” he told Interfax-Ukraine on the sidelines of the conference ”Reform Matrix: Fundamentals of enhancing economic growth for EU accession” conference in Kyiv.
At the end of October, the National Bank of Ukraine in the tables to the Inflation Report improved its estimate of growth in exports of goods and services in 2025 to only 0.9% from 0.5%, or $57.7 billion, but in the text of the report itself predicted a decline in exports of goods and services in 2025 due to a smaller harvest and weak demand for IT services, with growth resuming in 2026 due to the gradual return of the economy to normal operating conditions.
At the same time, Kachka emphasized that it is necessary to take into account not only the volume of the entire harvest, but also the mix of crops in it, especially in terms of exports.
“For example, if you look at the fact that this year we have a smaller share of corn, respectively, we have a larger share of soybeans, a larger share of rapeseed, a larger share of sunflower – these are the goods for which we have better prices in general,” he explained.
The sales representative added that the price environment has changed.
“Therefore, growth in grains and oilseeds for the next year is quite possible and organic. And now, when we analyze the market, we realize that it is actually possible to earn more with less,” Kachka summarized regarding agricultural exports.
Regarding exports of metallurgical products, he noted that much will depend on decisions in North America regarding duties, as this is an important market for Ukraine.
According to him, exports of metallurgical products are growing and may exceed 20% this year, both for semi-finished products, pig iron, and finished products.
“The question is what the security situation will be like, what the energy situation will be like, etc., but export growth is also possible,” the Ukrainian trade representative said.
According to the NBU’s balance of payments, exports of goods and services from Ukraine increased by 8.4% to $41.33 billion over the first nine months of this year, including 10.3% to $28.64 billion in goods and 4.4% to $12.69 billion in services.
Imports of goods and services increased by 0.9% to UAH 66.66 billion, including 6.2% to UAH 49.65 billion, while services decreased by 1.9% to UAH 17.01 billion.
According to EastFruit analysts, Ukraine in the 2024/25 season continues to actively catch up with the world leaders in frozen raspberry exports, which remain Serbia and Poland. However, Poland is increasingly dependent on re-exports of products, mainly of Ukrainian origin, to hold on to its leadership position.
During the first three months of the season, from July to September inclusive, Ukraine exported more than 28 thousand tons of frozen raspberries and blackberries, which is a new record for this period. Exports thus increased by 36% compared to the same period last year and by 45% compared to 2022. It is noteworthy that the increase in exports comes against the backdrop of numerous reports from farmers about a lower raspberry crop in 2024.
“Although Poland remains the main market for frozen raspberries from Ukraine, its share in total exports continues to decline. Ukraine is gradually starting to enter with frozen raspberries directly into traditional markets for Poland, such as Germany and France. For example, this season the share of the German market in frozen raspberry exports from Ukraine already exceeds 20%,” says Andriy Yarmak, economist at FAO Investment Department.
Among the main markets for Ukrainian raspberries at the beginning of the season are also the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Austria, Belgium and Italy. Also in the new season, the first batches of Ukrainian frozen raspberries have already been shipped to such important and promising markets as the USA and Canada.
According to analysts, even Serbia, the world leader in raspberry exports, purchased a large batch of produce from Ukraine in September 2024, apparently for re-export.
As of November 18, Ukraine exported 16.431 mln tonnes of grains and pulses since the beginning of 2024/25 marketing year (MY, July-2023-June-2024), of which 2.032 mln tonnes were shipped this month, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported citing the State Customs Service.
According to a report on the Ministry’s website, as of the same date last year, the total figure for shipments abroad was 12.033 million tons, including 2.793 million tons in November.
In terms of crops, since the beginning of the current season, Ukraine has exported 8.351 million tons of wheat (610 thousand tons in November), 1.74 million tons of barley (41 thousand tons), 10.8 thousand tons of rye (0.2 thousand tons), and 6.048 million tons of corn (1.367 million tons).
The total export of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of November 18 is estimated at 28.9 thsd tonnes (3.3 thsd tonnes in November), including 26.2 thsd tonnes of wheat (2.8 thsd tonnes).
