“As of March 2024, Kernel, one of the largest Ukrainian agro-industrial groups, has returned to pre-war volumes of agricultural exports by sea, said Yuriy Kizlevych, Head of the Transshipment and Fleet Department of the agricultural holding, during the online conference of the Center for Economic Strategies “Challenges at Sea and Border. What is the future of Ukraine’s foreign trade?”.
“We are investing in infrastructure. As of today, we have really returned to pre-war export volumes. During the full-scale invasion, we continued to invest in port terminals. We now own a certain cluster of terminals, both for grain and vegetable oil transshipment,” he said.
According to Mr. Kizlevych, Kernel handles not only its own agricultural products but also provides this service to other operators, which has a positive impact on the domestic market and exports.
The head of Kernel’s transshipment and fleet department noted that the agricultural holding sees prospects for increasing exports via the Black Sea sea corridor.
He also said that 70% of Kernel’s exports are to non-European destinations, including Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and only then to Western Europe.
Speaking about the cost of logistics, Kizlevych stated that since the beginning of the war, it has had to be divided into two components: domestic and maritime. All domestic market operators have problems with the former, in particular with regard to facilities where infrastructure has been damaged.
“However, thanks to the fruitful cooperation between business and the state, we see that the best ways to solve problematic infrastructure issues are being found. Inland logistics is changing very dynamically, taking into account the existing export channels. We see that this process has become more planned and manageable, comparable to the pre-war level,” he said.
Describing Ukraine’s maritime logistics, Kizlevych confirmed the impact of the military bonus factor on the total cost of export transportation.
“Of course, there is a factor of the military premium that must be paid to shipowners for the call of ships (to the Ukrainian part of the Black Sea – IF-U). Fleet freight has become more expensive. If we look at the “grain corridor”, its first Ukrainian version, we can state huge losses in port dues for the downtime of the large-capacity fleet. These are millions, tens of millions of losses,” said the Head of Transshipment and Fleet Department of Kernel.
At the same time, he emphasized that market participants see positive dynamics in the reduction of insurance rates, which is a positive signal and gives hope for a more stable functioning of Ukraine’s sea routes in 2024.
Before the war, Kernel Agro Holding was the world’s largest producer of sunflower oil (approximately 7% of global production) and a major exporter (approximately 12%). It is one of the largest producers and sellers of bottled oil in Ukraine. In addition, it is engaged in the cultivation and sale of agricultural products.
Kernel’s net profit for FY2023 amounted to $299 million, while the company ended the previous year with a net loss of $41 million. The agricultural holding’s revenue for FY2023 decreased by 35% to $3.455 billion, but EBITDA increased 2.5 times to $544 million.
In 2023/24 marketing year, Ukraine exported 31.887 mln tonnes of grains and pulses, down 6.8% compared to the previous year, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported, citing the operational data of the State Customs Service.
According to the press service, 2.217 mln tons of grains and pulses were shipped this month, which is 11.4% more than last year.
According to the report, since the beginning of the current season, Ukraine has exported 12.761 million tons of wheat (989 thousand tons were shipped to foreign markets in March); barley – 1.782 million tons (159 thousand tons); rye – 1 thousand tons (0); corn – 17.059 million tons (1.064 million tons).
Total exports of Ukrainian flour as of March 13 are also lower than last year and are estimated at 75.7 thousand tons (1.7 thousand tons in March), including 71.9 thousand tons of wheat (1.6 thousand tons).
Ukraine’s exports of goods in January-February 2024 increased by 4.6% y-o-y, from $6.5 billion to $6.8 billion, while imports decreased by 1%, from $10.1 billion to $10 billion, the State Customs Service reported on Friday.
According to its post on Telegram, in the first two months of 2024, trade turnover increased by 2% compared to two months of 2023, to $16.8 billion.
In January, the State Customs Service reported a 9.7% increase in exports from $3.1 billion to $3.4 billion and a 6.3% increase in imports from $4.8 billion to $5.1 billion. Taking into account these data, in February, exports remained at the level of February last year – $3.4 billion, while imports decreased by 7.5% to $4.9 billion.
The agency noted that taxable imports in January-February amounted to $8.8 billion, or 88% of total imports, and the tax burden per 1 kg was $0.47/kg, which is 5% more than in the same period in 2023.
According to the State Customs Service, the largest imports to Ukraine in the first two months of this year were from China – $2 billion, Poland – $1.1 billion, and Germany – $769 million.
Ukraine exported the most to Poland – $649 million, Spain – $624 million, and China – $504 million.
As stated in the report, 67% of the total volume of goods imported in January-February 2024 was machinery, equipment and transport – $3.5 billion (UAH 25.3 billion was paid to the budget during customs clearance, which is 31% of customs revenues), chemical products – $1.8 billion (UAH 12.8 billion was paid to the budget, or 16% of customs revenues) and fuel and energy products – $1.3 billion (UAH 20 billion was paid, or 24% of revenues).
The top three most exported goods from Ukraine were food products – $4.5 billion, metals and metal products – $726 million, and mineral products – $587 million.
According to the report, in the first two months of 2024, UAH 47.96 million was paid to the budget during customs clearance of exports of goods subject to export duties.
Since the beginning of 2024, Ukraine has exported 3.7 million tons of cargo through the Danube ports, of which 2.5 million tons are grains and oil, said Oleksandr Kubrakov, Deputy Prime Minister for the Restoration of Ukraine, Minister of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development.
“Despite the record volumes of the Ukrainian Sea Corridor, the Danube ports have growth potential,” he said.
According to Kubrakov, in particular, the Ukrainian Danube Shipping Company has started offering container delivery to the Danube ports of Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Germany and the Romanian port of Constanta, bypassing the border with Poland.
Interfax-Ukraine does not have comparative information on the volume of exports through Danube ports for the same period in 2023, but it is known that in February last year they handled 2.2 million tons of cargo, in March – 2.8 million tons, and for the whole year – 29 million tons.
The day before, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced Ukraine’s intention to expand the export capacity of the Danube cluster from 33 million tons of cargo in 2023 to 35-40 million tons.
Ukraine has managed to increase its exports through Danube ports sixfold since the beginning of the war, to 33 million tons, but intends to increase them by another 2-7 million, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
“Our goal is to expand the export capacity of the Danube cluster from 33 million tons in 2023 to 35-40 million tons in 2024,” the prime minister said at a press conference on Monday.
According to him, the possibility of launching container transportation on the Danube is also being considered, which will also increase export opportunities and create an alternative to land routes.
Shmyhal recalled that during the two years of war, more than 20 new transshipment points were opened in the Danube cluster, which ensured a 6-fold increase in cargo turnover compared to 2021.
As of the end of February of the 2023/2024 marketing year, which started on July 1, Ukraine has already exported more than 29.1 million tons of grain, legumes and flour, Danylo Hetmantsev, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Taxation and Customs Policy, said on Telegram.
He clarified that in terms of major crops, 15.8 million tons of corn, 11.5 million tons of wheat, and 1.6 million tons of barley were supplied to foreign markets.
“Compared to the same date last year, there is a lag of almost 2.6 million tons (although, for example, wheat was shipped a quarter of a million tons more than last year),” the head of the parliamentary financial committee said.
Mr. Hetmantsev explained the slowdown in grain exports by the fact that for a month and a half, in July and the first half of August last year, when sea exports were forced to pause due to Russia’s withdrawal from the Istanbul grain initiative, Ukraine had to develop an “alternative grain corridor.” In August 2023, thanks to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, it became available, and in the first months, foreign shipowners were restrained and cautious, looking closely at whether the new route was really safe, he recalled.
“In November 2023, some ‘friends and neighbors’ began to create obstacles for us on the land border under artificial and far-fetched pretexts, and these processes are still ongoing,” Hetmantsev wrote.
The chairman of the parliamentary committee expressed confidence that Ukraine would soon completely close the current gap.
He emphasized that in recent months, Ukraine has returned to almost pre-war export volumes, 90% of Ukrainian grain is shipped to foreign customers by sea, and dependence on the land corridor on the western border is decreasing.
“Thus, Ukraine will continue to play the role of one of the guarantors of global food security, while at the same time replenishing the treasury with serious foreign exchange earnings (in the near future, agricultural products will remain a key item of Ukrainian exports),” Hetmantsev summarized.
