February looks like a month of “macro + flows,” where the direction will be determined not so much by individual crypto news as by a combination of factors: expectations regarding interest rates, risk appetite, ETF behavior, and derivatives volatility.
Fixygen offers several scenarios for how the situation could unfold.
Base scenario (most likely)
Sideways market with increased volatility: Bitcoin is trying to recover after January’s sell-off, but is facing selling pressure as it approaches strong levels (including around $90,000). In this scenario, the “swings” will continue until there is a clear signal regarding liquidity — either through macro data or a sustained reversal of ETF flows.
Positive scenario
The market will get a “window” for growth if two conditions are met simultaneously:
sustainable net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs return (this reduces dependence on derivative demand);
macro policy becomes less tight, real yields fall, the dollar weakens, and the risk premium declines.
Then crypto could quickly recover from its late January slump, and altcoins could temporarily revive following BTC.
Negative scenario
If outflows from ETFs continue and macro expectations remain hawkish, pressure may return: the January episode showed how quickly the market unpacks when volatility and liquidations increase. In this case, February will be marked by the defense of support levels and investors’ flight to cash/safe-haven assets.
Markers we recommend watching in February:
1) daily statistics on spot Bitcoin ETF flows (inflows/outflows);
2) the state of derivatives: open interest, funding rates, liquidation “flashes”;
3) the tone of the macro agenda and the reaction of yields/the dollar to key data for the month;
4) the stability of BTC after the sharp movements at the end of January (the market is testing whether “demand on dips” is ready to be systemic).
Source: https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20260131/prognozi-na-lyutiy-dlya-rinku-kriptovalyut-vid-fixygen.html
In the last week of January, the crypto market went into risk-off mode: Bitcoin failed to hold above the psychological $90,000 level and fell to $81,000 at the peak of the decline, after which it partially rebounded.
According to Amberdata estimates, at the beginning of the week, BTC was trading at around $88,300 and ETH at around $2,920. The key support for Bitcoin at that time was the $86,000 range, with resistance at $90,000. By the end of the week, according to Binance, BTC was around $82,400 with a 24-hour range of approximately $80,600-86,400, and the total market capitalization was around $2.98 trillion.
The main trigger was the rapid liquidation of “overheated” positions amid increased volatility and macro factors. CoinDesk noted that the sell-off was accompanied by an estimated $7 billion in forced position closures and significant long liquidations, and took place on the eve of a large crypto options expiry ($8.4 billion).
A separate negative signal is the dynamics of spot Bitcoin ETFs: on certain days of the week, there were noticeable net outflows, and on January 29, according to Trading Economics, one of the largest daily outflows of about $0.6 billion was recorded.
Finally, expectations regarding interest rates and the rhetoric of central banks reinforced the background: the market once again became sensitive to bond yields and the dollar, which usually hits high-risk assets.
Source: https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20260130/pidsumki-tizhnya-dlya-kriptorinku-analiz-fixygen.html
Declining risk appetite in global markets was the main backdrop for cryptocurrencies during the week of January 19-23, 2026. Bitcoin and Ether rolled back after starting the year on high expectations, and the movement was exacerbated by sell-offs by large holders, capital outflows from exchange-traded products, and a wave of forced liquidations of leveraged positions.
According to Investing.com, between January 19 and 23, Bitcoin fell from $92,617.8 to $88,756.7 per coin, or approximately 4.2% over the week. The range of fluctuations was wide: during the week, the price rose to $93,386.9 and fell to $87,285.1.
Ether lost about 8.7% over the same period: from $3,190.04 to $2,911.44. The intraday range for ETH was even more volatile, with a low of about $2,867.81 and a high of about $3,284.03.
Geopolitical and trade risks were the key triggers for the sell-off. The market discussed the threat of tariffs and the sharp rhetoric surrounding Greenland, which compounded the turbulence in debt markets, including in Japan. CoinDesk linked the fall of BTC below $90,000 to a combination of sell-offs in risky assets and deteriorating sentiment amid the tariff agenda.
The second reason is market mechanics. Volatility accelerated liquidations in futures and margin positions, while institutional demand appeared less resilient. MarketWatch, citing market participants, wrote that since the beginning of the week, there had been about $500 million in outflows from US spot ETFs on Bitcoin, and the volume of liquidations on Bitcoin futures exceeded $700 million.
It is worth noting the contrast between capital flow data and actual price dynamics. CoinShares reported that in the week ending January 16, crypto investment products attracted $2.17 billion, with sentiment deteriorating at the very end of the week due to geopolitics and tariff threats. This report was released on January 19 and became an important marker: money was coming in, but the market was sensitive to sudden changes in the news background.
By midweek, volatility had partially subsided after signals of softening rhetoric. Reuters reported that global markets reacted with rising stocks and a weaker dollar after Trump publicly backed away from some of his threats regarding tariffs and Greenland. In the crypto market, this led to stabilization rather than a full-fledged trend reversal.
What market participants will be watching first and foremost: the continuation or fading of the tariff agenda, the dynamics of flows in ETFs/ETPs, and the Fed’s decision — the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for January 27-28.
Source: https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20260124/pidsumok-tizhnya-dlya-kriptovalyut-analiz-fixygen.html
Cryptocurrencies ended the week of January 12-16 with growth after strong movement in the middle of the period and a subsequent correction on news of a delay in the discussion of a key bill on market regulation in the US.
Bitcoin rose by about 5% over the week: on January 12, it traded at around $90,800, and on January 16, at around $95,400, with prices briefly rising above $97,000 in the middle of the week.
Ethereum added about 7% over the same period, from around $3,090 (January 12) to $3,310 (January 16).
According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market as of January 16 is around $3.318 trillion, with a daily trading volume of around $123.8 billion. Bitcoin’s share is estimated at approximately 57.5%, while Ethereum’s is around 12%.
Investors’ focus has shifted back to flows into exchange-traded funds for crypto assets. A number of reviews noted significant inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, including a day with inflows of approximately $843.6 million (January 14), as well as a total of approximately $1.7 billion over several trading sessions amid BTC’s rise to $97,000.
The correction at the end of the week was accompanied by news of a pause around the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act: Senate hearings/advancement were postponed after Coinbase publicly withdrew its support for the bill due to controversial provisions, including restrictions on yield payments for stablecoins.
At the same time, reports that South Korea is moving to lift long-standing restrictions on corporate investment in crypto assets as part of new regulatory approaches provided a positive backdrop for the “institutional” agenda.
DefiLlama estimates the total TVL of DeFi at around $129 billion, and the capitalization of stablecoins at approximately $310.7 billion. CoinGecko also records stablecoins at around $313 billion, which corresponds to approximately 9.4% of the total capitalization of the crypto market.
The week was mixed for the “big” altcoins: XRP remained around $2.07 until January 16, showing almost zero dynamics compared to the beginning of the week. Solana traded near $142 per coin until January 16.
The key triggers for the market remain the pace of inflows into crypto ETFs and the US regulatory discussion calendar, while investors will focus on Bitcoin’s reaction near its recent highs of around $97,000.
Source: https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20260116/pidsumki-tizhnya-dlya-kriptovalyut-analiz-vid-fixygen.html
If 2024 was the year of “survival,” then 2025 became the year of “punishment for weak security and tokenomics.” According to Chainalysis estimates, more than $3.4 billion was stolen in 2025, with one incident — the Bybit compromise in February — accounting for about $1.5 billion. Industry security reviews also recorded losses of “more than $4 billion” for the year and an increase in the share of incidents due to operational failures.
1) Altcoins with failed TGEs: “token graveyard”
At the end of the year, estimates emerged that about 85% of tokens launched in 2025 are trading below their initial prices — meaning that most launches failed to maintain demand and liquidity.
2) Memecoin scandals: the $LIBRA case in Argentina
A high-profile counterexample is the story of $LIBRA: after a public mention by the president of Argentina, the token skyrocketed and then collapsed, leading to investigations and allegations of fraud.
3) Closure of NFT platforms as a signal that “the market has not returned”
NFT infrastructure continued to shrink. X2Y2 announced the closure of its marketplace in the spring of 2025. LG closed Art Lab, an NFT platform for TV, in the summer of 2025, directly citing a change in focus due to the market.
4) Social engineering and hacks instead of “pure” DeFi exploits: the Venus case
A notable episode of the year was attacks through the human factor. In the Venus Protocol case, attackers used Zoom compromise/social engineering to gain control over user actions and put approximately $13 million at risk.
5) Centralized services as “points of failure”
Even with the growing maturity of DeFi, the biggest losses are increasingly occurring in centralized services due to the compromise of keys and transaction signing processes — and this concentrates risk in single events.
Fixygen’s main conclusion
In 2025, the “worst” were not those with less marketing, but those with:
1) weak operational security and access control,
2) toxic tokenomics and inflated issuance,
3) a product with no real utility (especially in NFT/GameFi),
4) a focus on short-term pumping instead of infrastructure and partnerships.
2025 turned out to be the year of “infrastructure instead of hype.” The fastest-growing projects were those that simplified payments and onboarding, built rails for stablecoins and tokenization, and closed security gaps. Against this backdrop, the capitalization of stablecoins, according to industry reviews, grew significantly and reached about $306 billion by December. At the same time, Artemis analysts estimate the annual on-chain settlement of stablecoins at around $26 trillion (after clearing out the “noise”) — this explains why a new “startup boom” has emerged around stablecoins.
1) Privy (onboarding and wallets as a service)
One of the most notable successes of the year is the infrastructure for embedded wallets and web3 login. Privy raised additional funding in the spring and was acquired by Stripe in June — a rare case of a web2 giant “taking over” web3 infrastructure.
2) Plasma (blockchain “under stablecoins”)
While “universal” L1/L2s were arguing about TPS, individual teams began to create networks with a focus on one key use case — stablecoins and payments. Plasma raised a round to develop a stablecoin-oriented chain and payment infrastructure.
3) Coinflow (stablecoin payments for businesses)
Focused on the simple integration of stablecoins into payments for goods and services. In 2025, Coinflow raised a significant round of funding for the development of its payment platform and B2B partnerships.
4) Speed (Lightning payments: BTC + stablecoins)
Alongside the “stablecoin highway,” Lightning has also gained momentum as a fast payment layer. Speed raised $8 million from Tether and Ego Death Capital to scale payment solutions on Lightning.
5) Stable Sea (stablecoin treasuries and cross-border)
A new wave of services that make stablecoins a “treasury” for companies: liquidity management, international transfers, and fintech integrations. Stable Sea raised a seed round and is directly positioned as infrastructure for institutional treasury operations.
6) Block Street (tokenization of shares: execution layer)
In 2025, the tokenization of public assets became a topic again — but with an emphasis on “how to execute transactions and settlements” rather than marketing. Block Street raised $11.5 million for an execution infrastructure for onchain shares.
7) EigenCloud (development platform around the restaking idea)
The trend of the year is the transformation of “crypto security as a resource” into a product for developers. Eigen Labs promotes EigenCloud as a platform layer where cryptoeconomics and security become part of the dev infrastructure.
8) Hexagate / security-as-a-service (signals, monitoring, prevention)
Against the backdrop of increasing attacks, those who sell not “annual audits” but continuous monitoring and response are winning. In 2025, Chainalysis actively promoted Hexagate Security as a separate direction for funds and ecosystems.
9) Crown (regional stablecoins and local currencies)
Another sign of maturity is the growth of stablecoins pegged to local currencies. Crown (BRLV, Brazilian real) raised $13.5 million in Series A funding in December with a declared valuation of approximately $90 million.
What Fixygen considers to be the main trend for the “near future”
In 2026, it is logical to expect acceleration in areas where crypto already competes with traditional rakes: stablecoin payments, “painless wallets,” tokenization of simple instruments (primarily money and short-term bonds), as well as security and compliance as a mandatory part of the product.
