FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) in November compared to October reduced the forecast of world grain production in 2022 by 4.9 million tons – to 2.764 billion tons, according to the report of the organization.
The new figure is 1.8% lower than last year’s harvest. “The bulk of the revision concerns wheat, but the forecast for global coarse grain production has also been slightly reduced,” the document says. Thus, the wheat harvest estimate is down by 3.4 million tons to 783.8 million tons. However, it is 0.6% higher than in 2021 and is an absolute record.
As the experts explain, the revision of the wheat harvest forecast “is almost entirely due to production indicators in the U.S. – a decrease in yields and the reduction of harvesting areas. Forecasts for other producing countries, where the harvest is coming to an end, have not changed.
Forage grain harvest estimates are down 1.3 million tons to 1.467 billion tons. That’s down 2.8 percent from last year. “This is the first decline in production in four years,” the report notes. Most of this month’s decline in the forecast is due to lower corn production estimates in the U.S. and the EU, where recent data show the effects of the drought were more widespread than previously thought. Ukraine’s corn production forecast has been raised.
According to the report, corn acreage will remain planted in 2023, “but further expansion may be constrained by high production costs.”
Ukraine from the beginning of 2022/2023 marketing year (July-June) until November 7, exported 14.27 million tons of cereals, including 7.66 million tons of corn (53.8% of total supplies), 5.39 million tons of wheat (37.8%) and 1.17 million tons of barley (8.1%).
As reported on the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food on Monday, the rate of grain exports from the beginning of this year is by 30.7% lower than during the same period last year (from July 1 to November 7, 2021 20.61 million tons were delivered abroad).
According to the Ministry, Ukraine exported 5.39 million tons of wheat (2.39 times less than the same period last year), 1.17 million tons of barley (3.85 times less), 6.3 thousand tons of rye (11 times less) and 38.4 thousand tons of flour (12.1% less) from the beginning of 2022/2023 MY until November 7, 2022. At the same time, exports of corn exceeded last year’s volume – 7.66 million tons were exported, which is 2.61 times more than it was in 2021/2022 MY on the same date.
It is specified that since the beginning of November, Ukraine exported 1.07 million tons of grain crops, including 388 thousand tons of wheat, 606 tons of corn, 67 thousand tons of barley and 2.9 tons of flour.
As it follows from the Ministry data, during the period of November 2-7, an average of 178 thousand tons of cereals per day were supplied to the foreign markets, whereas during the preceding period of October 26 – November 2 – 170 thousand tons per day, October 21-26 – 132 thousand tons per day, October 1-21 – 141.5 thousand tons per day, and during September 26-30 – a record 267.5 thousand tons per day since the war. Thus, the average daily rate of exports during the reporting period of 2-7 November increased by 4.7% compared to the preceding period of October 26-November 2.
As reported, Ukraine exported 48.51 million tons of grain and leguminous crops in 2021/2022 MY, which is 8.4% more than in the previous MY, despite the full-scale invasion of Russia and the difficulties with the export of agricultural products due to the blockade of Ukrainian sea ports. 18.74 million tons of wheat (12.6% more than in 2020/2021MY), 23.54 million tons of corn (+1.9%), 5.75 million tons of barley (+35.9%), 70.9 thousand tons of flour (-44.1%) were supplied to foreign markets.
In 2020/2021 MY, the country exported 44.72 million tons of cereals and legumes: 16.64 million tons of wheat, 23.08 million tons of corn, 4.23 million tons of barley, 126.9 thousand tons of flour and 18.4 thousand tons of rye.
In 2019/2020, Ukraine exported 56.72 million tons of grain and leguminous crops.
From the beginning of the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) and until November 2, Ukraine exported 13.38 million tons of grain crops, of which 7.14 million tons of corn (53.4% of total supplies), 5.06 million tons of wheat (37.8%) and 1.22 million tons of barley (9.1%).
As reported on the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food on Wednesday, the rate of grain exports since the beginning of the current MY is 32.1% lower than the same period of the last MY (from July 1 to November 2, 2021, 19.72 million tons were delivered abroad).
According to the agency, from the beginning of 2022/2023 MY and until November 2, 2022, Ukraine exported 5.06 million tons of wheat (2.48 times less compared to the same period a year earlier), 1.22 million tons of barley (4. 01 times less), 6.2 thousand tons of rye (9 times less) and 36.1 thousand tons of flour (16.8% less). At the same time, the pace of corn exports exceeded last year’s volumes – 7.14 million tons were exported, which is 2.94 times higher than in 2021/2022 MY on the same date.
It is specified that in general, on November 1, 177 thousand tons of grain crops were exported from Ukraine, including 62 thousand tons of wheat, 93 thousand tons of corn, 16 thousand tons of barley and 0.7 thousand tons of flour
As follows from the data of the ministry, for the week of October 26-November 2, an average of 170 thousand tons of grain per day was supplied to foreign markets, while for the previous period of October 21-26 – 132 thousand tons per day, for the period 1-21 October -141.5 thousand tons / day, for September 26-30 – a record 267.5 thousand tons / day since the beginning of the war, and for September 21-26 – 126 thousand tons / day. Thus, the average daily export rates for the reporting period October 26-November 2 increased by 28.7% compared to the previous period October 21-26.
As reported, in the 2021/2022 marketing year, Ukraine exported 48.51 million tons of grains and legumes, which is 8.4% higher than the previous marketing year, despite the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation and difficulties with the export of agricultural products due to the blockade of Ukrainian seaports. 18.74 million tons of wheat were delivered to foreign markets (12.6% more than in 2020/2021MY), 23.54 million tons of corn (+1.9%), 5.75 million tons of barley (+35.9%) , 70.9 thousand tons of flour (-44.1%).
In 2020/2021 MY, the country exported 44.72 million tons of grain and leguminous crops: 16.64 million tons of wheat, 23.08 million tons of corn, 4.23 million tons of barley, 126.9 thousand tons of flour and 18.4 thousand . tons of rye.
In 2019/2020 MY, Ukraine exported 56.72 million tons of grain and leguminous crops.
The Ukrainian Danube Shipping Company (UDP) is launching the Danube Grain Route project due to the disruption of the “grain initiative” by Russia, UDP CEO Dmitry Moskalenko said on his Facebook page.
“Back in the summer, we assumed that Russia could at any moment try to disrupt the Grain Initiative. Therefore, we persistently and systematically developed our Danube Grain Route project,” Moskalenko explained.
According to him, UDP has invested in the creation of its own transshipment of grain and agreed with the Romanian partners – the TTS group of companies – on a faster and more efficient transshipment scheme in the port of Constanta.
Among the advantages of the new grain project at the first stage, Moskalenko noted that due to the faster loading and unloading process, the average caravan turnaround time will be reduced by about 30%. As a result, cargo owners will not have to bear financial losses due to long queues near the terminal.
In addition, the Director General of the UDP predicts that in the future the barge caravan will be able to carry out up to two trips per month due to the equipping of ships with online control systems, video surveillance and an increase in the number of navigators in the crew.
Moskalenko also said that at the second stage of the project, it is planned to build new barges, to increase the “tonnage” capabilities and modernize traction – a major overhaul of the self-propelled fleet with the replacement of engines.
As reported with reference to the data of the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, in just three months of the implementation of the Grain Initiative, 422 ships from Ukrainian seaports exported about 10 million tons of agricultural products. This volume could be 30-40% more if Russia did not block inspections in the Bosphorus.
On the afternoon of October 31, the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, said that without the participation of the Russian Federation, the export of Ukrainian grain would hardly be feasible. At the same time, he noted that from now on the grain deal acquires a “risky and non-guaranteed character.”
Ships flying the Turkish flag will be able to continue exporting grain from Ukrainian ports without any problems, despite the suspension of Russia’s participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said.
“There are no problems with the exit of ships under the flag of Turkey. They will continue to leave Ukrainian ports,” the Turkish media quoted the minister as saying.
Akar also expressed hope that the parties will be able to agree on the implementation of the agreement on grain in full.
The topic of the grain deal, as reported, was discussed by phone on Monday and Tuesday by the foreign ministers and defense ministers of Russia and Turkey.
The vessel Ikaria Angel with 40,000 tons of grain for Ethiopia as part of the UN World Food Program (WFP) was unable to leave the Ukrainian port on Sunday, as planned, due to Russia’s actions, Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov said.
“These products were intended for the people of Ethiopia, who are on the verge of starvation. But due to the blocking of the “grain corridor” by Russia, export is impossible,” he tweeted on Sunday.
As reported, the Russian Defense Ministry announced Moscow’s withdrawal from agreements on the export of grain from the ports of Ukraine, citing the alleged attack by Ukraine “against the ships of the Black Sea Fleet and civilian ships involved in ensuring the security of the” grain corridor “.
At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that this was just a pretext, and Russia deliberately began to aggravate the food crisis back in September, when, due to the actions of its representatives, 176 ships had already accumulated in the Joint Coordination Center near the Bosphorus, which could not pass through your route.
On July 22, representatives of Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN signed an agreement in Istanbul on the creation of a sea corridor for the export of Ukrainian grain from the ports of Chornomorsk, Odessa and Yuzhny for a period of 120 days.
As of October 29, 403 ships left Ukrainian ports with 9.1 million tons of agricultural products for Asia, Europe and Africa.
