The Ukrainian Danube Shipping Company (UDP) is launching the Danube Grain Route project due to the disruption of the “grain initiative” by Russia, UDP CEO Dmitry Moskalenko said on his Facebook page.
“Back in the summer, we assumed that Russia could at any moment try to disrupt the Grain Initiative. Therefore, we persistently and systematically developed our Danube Grain Route project,” Moskalenko explained.
According to him, UDP has invested in the creation of its own transshipment of grain and agreed with the Romanian partners – the TTS group of companies – on a faster and more efficient transshipment scheme in the port of Constanta.
Among the advantages of the new grain project at the first stage, Moskalenko noted that due to the faster loading and unloading process, the average caravan turnaround time will be reduced by about 30%. As a result, cargo owners will not have to bear financial losses due to long queues near the terminal.
In addition, the Director General of the UDP predicts that in the future the barge caravan will be able to carry out up to two trips per month due to the equipping of ships with online control systems, video surveillance and an increase in the number of navigators in the crew.
Moskalenko also said that at the second stage of the project, it is planned to build new barges, to increase the “tonnage” capabilities and modernize traction – a major overhaul of the self-propelled fleet with the replacement of engines.
As reported with reference to the data of the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, in just three months of the implementation of the Grain Initiative, 422 ships from Ukrainian seaports exported about 10 million tons of agricultural products. This volume could be 30-40% more if Russia did not block inspections in the Bosphorus.
On the afternoon of October 31, the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, said that without the participation of the Russian Federation, the export of Ukrainian grain would hardly be feasible. At the same time, he noted that from now on the grain deal acquires a “risky and non-guaranteed character.”
Ships flying the Turkish flag will be able to continue exporting grain from Ukrainian ports without any problems, despite the suspension of Russia’s participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said.
“There are no problems with the exit of ships under the flag of Turkey. They will continue to leave Ukrainian ports,” the Turkish media quoted the minister as saying.
Akar also expressed hope that the parties will be able to agree on the implementation of the agreement on grain in full.
The topic of the grain deal, as reported, was discussed by phone on Monday and Tuesday by the foreign ministers and defense ministers of Russia and Turkey.
The vessel Ikaria Angel with 40,000 tons of grain for Ethiopia as part of the UN World Food Program (WFP) was unable to leave the Ukrainian port on Sunday, as planned, due to Russia’s actions, Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov said.
“These products were intended for the people of Ethiopia, who are on the verge of starvation. But due to the blocking of the “grain corridor” by Russia, export is impossible,” he tweeted on Sunday.
As reported, the Russian Defense Ministry announced Moscow’s withdrawal from agreements on the export of grain from the ports of Ukraine, citing the alleged attack by Ukraine “against the ships of the Black Sea Fleet and civilian ships involved in ensuring the security of the” grain corridor “.
At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that this was just a pretext, and Russia deliberately began to aggravate the food crisis back in September, when, due to the actions of its representatives, 176 ships had already accumulated in the Joint Coordination Center near the Bosphorus, which could not pass through your route.
On July 22, representatives of Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN signed an agreement in Istanbul on the creation of a sea corridor for the export of Ukrainian grain from the ports of Chornomorsk, Odessa and Yuzhny for a period of 120 days.
As of October 29, 403 ships left Ukrainian ports with 9.1 million tons of agricultural products for Asia, Europe and Africa.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects that if active hostilities with the Russian occupiers continue until mid-2024, the harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the country will decrease (under a pessimistic scenario with a blockade of its ports) to 51.5 million tons in 2023 (- 40% compared to 2021), and up to 52.5 million tons in 2024 (-38.7%).
According to the NBU inflation report for October, the key factor in forecasting crop volumes will be the availability of crop exports from Ukrainian seaports.
Thus, under the scenario of the continuation of Russian aggression until mid-2023, it is expected that the total harvest of grains and legumes in 2023 will be 57 million tons, provided Ukraine has full access to agricultural exports through its Black Sea ports, and 51.5 million tons in the event of their blockade by Russia.
Similarly, if the war continues until mid-2024, Ukraine will be able to harvest in 2024 not 62 million tons of cereals and legumes, as in the case of free maritime exports, but only 52.2 million tons due to the blockade of its port infrastructure.
At the same time, the National Bank predicts the harvest of grain and leguminous crops in 2022 at the level of 52.5 million tons.
The bank recalled that in 2019 Ukraine harvested 75.1 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, in 2020 – 64.9 million tons, in 2021 – a record 85.7 million tons since independence.
As reported, by October 28, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 48.81 million tons of main crops from a total area of 13.13 million hectares, or 70% of the previously planned areas.
Ukraine in 2021 harvested a record harvest of grains, legumes and oilseeds of 106 million tons: grains and legumes – 84 million tons, oilseeds – 22.6 million tons.
From the beginning of the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) and until October 26, Ukraine exported 12.19 million tons of grain crops, of which 6.48 million tons of corn (53.1% of total supplies), 4.62 million tons of wheat (37.9%) and 1.04 million tons of barley (8.5%).
As reported on the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food on Wednesday, the rate of grain exports since the beginning of the current MY is 33% lower than the same period of the last MY (from July 1 to October 26, 2021, 18.19 million tons were delivered abroad).
According to the agency, from the beginning of 2022/2023 MY to October 26, 2022, Ukraine exported 4.62 million tons of wheat (2.53 times less compared to the same period a year earlier), 1.04 million tons of barley (4. 04 times less), 6.2 thousand tons of rye (8.8 times less) and 34.3 thousand tons of flour (19.7% less). At the same time, the pace of corn exports exceeded last year’s volumes – 6.48 million tons were exported, which is 3.24 times higher than in 2021/2022 MY on the same date.
It is specified that in general, since the beginning of October, 3.49 million tons of grain crops have been exported (+0.66 million tons for the period October 21-26), including 1.58 million tons of wheat (+0.26 million tons), 1 .63 million tons of corn (+0.31 million tons), 267 thousand tons of barley (+91 thousand tons), 9.7 thousand tons of flour (+2.2 thousand tons) and 1.9 thousand tons rye (no change).
As follows from the data of the ministry, for the five days of October 21-26, an average of 132 thousand tons of grain per day was supplied to foreign markets, while for the previous period of October 1-21 – 141.5 thousand tons / day, for 26- September 30 – a record 267.5 thousand tons / day since the beginning of the war, 126 thousand tons / day for September 21-26, and 132.5 thousand tons / day for September 9-21. Thus, the average daily export rates for the reporting period October 21-26 decreased by 6.7% compared to the previous period October 1-21.
As reported, in the 2021/2022 marketing year, Ukraine exported 48.51 million tons of grains and legumes, which is 8.4% higher than the previous marketing year, despite the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation and difficulties with the export of agricultural products due to the blockade of Ukrainian seaports. 18.74 million tons of wheat were delivered to foreign markets (12.6% more than in 2020/2021MY), 23.54 million tons of corn (+1.9%), 5.75 million tons of barley (+35.9%) , 70.9 thousand tons of flour (-44.1%).
In 2020/2021 MY, the country exported 44.72 million tons of grain and leguminous crops: 16.64 million tons of wheat, 23.08 million tons of corn, 4.23 million tons of barley, 126.9 thousand tons of flour and 18.4 thousand . tons of rye.
In 2019/2020 MY, Ukraine exported 56.72 million tons of grain and leguminous crops.
Five more ships with a total cargo of 122.3 thousand tons of agricultural products left the ports of Velikaya Odessa for the countries of Africa, Asia and Europe on Monday.
As noted in a message on the telegram channel of the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, among these vessels are the NEW LIBERTY bulk carrier, which will deliver 25 thousand tons of wheat to Kenya, as well as the CHOLA TREASURE bulk carrier, which will deliver 61.8 thousand tons of rapeseed to Pakistan.
Since the beginning of the implementation of the Grain Initiative, 350 ships with 7.8 million tons of agricultural products have left the ports of Big Odessa for the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa.
As reported, the parties participating in the “Grain Initiative” – the UN, Turkey and Ukraine – expressed their readiness to continue its operation and assured that maximum efforts would be made for its successful implementation, Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Oleksandr Kubrakov said following a meeting on Sunday at the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul with Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar.
