The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects that if active hostilities with the Russian occupiers continue until mid-2024, the harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the country will decrease (under a pessimistic scenario with a blockade of its ports) to 51.5 million tons in 2023 (- 40% compared to 2021), and up to 52.5 million tons in 2024 (-38.7%).
According to the NBU inflation report for October, the key factor in forecasting crop volumes will be the availability of crop exports from Ukrainian seaports.
Thus, under the scenario of the continuation of Russian aggression until mid-2023, it is expected that the total harvest of grains and legumes in 2023 will be 57 million tons, provided Ukraine has full access to agricultural exports through its Black Sea ports, and 51.5 million tons in the event of their blockade by Russia.
Similarly, if the war continues until mid-2024, Ukraine will be able to harvest in 2024 not 62 million tons of cereals and legumes, as in the case of free maritime exports, but only 52.2 million tons due to the blockade of its port infrastructure.
At the same time, the National Bank predicts the harvest of grain and leguminous crops in 2022 at the level of 52.5 million tons.
The bank recalled that in 2019 Ukraine harvested 75.1 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, in 2020 – 64.9 million tons, in 2021 – a record 85.7 million tons since independence.
As reported, by October 28, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 48.81 million tons of main crops from a total area of 13.13 million hectares, or 70% of the previously planned areas.
Ukraine in 2021 harvested a record harvest of grains, legumes and oilseeds of 106 million tons: grains and legumes – 84 million tons, oilseeds – 22.6 million tons.
From the beginning of the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) and until October 26, Ukraine exported 12.19 million tons of grain crops, of which 6.48 million tons of corn (53.1% of total supplies), 4.62 million tons of wheat (37.9%) and 1.04 million tons of barley (8.5%).
As reported on the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food on Wednesday, the rate of grain exports since the beginning of the current MY is 33% lower than the same period of the last MY (from July 1 to October 26, 2021, 18.19 million tons were delivered abroad).
According to the agency, from the beginning of 2022/2023 MY to October 26, 2022, Ukraine exported 4.62 million tons of wheat (2.53 times less compared to the same period a year earlier), 1.04 million tons of barley (4. 04 times less), 6.2 thousand tons of rye (8.8 times less) and 34.3 thousand tons of flour (19.7% less). At the same time, the pace of corn exports exceeded last year’s volumes – 6.48 million tons were exported, which is 3.24 times higher than in 2021/2022 MY on the same date.
It is specified that in general, since the beginning of October, 3.49 million tons of grain crops have been exported (+0.66 million tons for the period October 21-26), including 1.58 million tons of wheat (+0.26 million tons), 1 .63 million tons of corn (+0.31 million tons), 267 thousand tons of barley (+91 thousand tons), 9.7 thousand tons of flour (+2.2 thousand tons) and 1.9 thousand tons rye (no change).
As follows from the data of the ministry, for the five days of October 21-26, an average of 132 thousand tons of grain per day was supplied to foreign markets, while for the previous period of October 1-21 – 141.5 thousand tons / day, for 26- September 30 – a record 267.5 thousand tons / day since the beginning of the war, 126 thousand tons / day for September 21-26, and 132.5 thousand tons / day for September 9-21. Thus, the average daily export rates for the reporting period October 21-26 decreased by 6.7% compared to the previous period October 1-21.
As reported, in the 2021/2022 marketing year, Ukraine exported 48.51 million tons of grains and legumes, which is 8.4% higher than the previous marketing year, despite the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation and difficulties with the export of agricultural products due to the blockade of Ukrainian seaports. 18.74 million tons of wheat were delivered to foreign markets (12.6% more than in 2020/2021MY), 23.54 million tons of corn (+1.9%), 5.75 million tons of barley (+35.9%) , 70.9 thousand tons of flour (-44.1%).
In 2020/2021 MY, the country exported 44.72 million tons of grain and leguminous crops: 16.64 million tons of wheat, 23.08 million tons of corn, 4.23 million tons of barley, 126.9 thousand tons of flour and 18.4 thousand . tons of rye.
In 2019/2020 MY, Ukraine exported 56.72 million tons of grain and leguminous crops.
Five more ships with a total cargo of 122.3 thousand tons of agricultural products left the ports of Velikaya Odessa for the countries of Africa, Asia and Europe on Monday.
As noted in a message on the telegram channel of the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, among these vessels are the NEW LIBERTY bulk carrier, which will deliver 25 thousand tons of wheat to Kenya, as well as the CHOLA TREASURE bulk carrier, which will deliver 61.8 thousand tons of rapeseed to Pakistan.
Since the beginning of the implementation of the Grain Initiative, 350 ships with 7.8 million tons of agricultural products have left the ports of Big Odessa for the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa.
As reported, the parties participating in the “Grain Initiative” – the UN, Turkey and Ukraine – expressed their readiness to continue its operation and assured that maximum efforts would be made for its successful implementation, Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Oleksandr Kubrakov said following a meeting on Sunday at the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul with Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar.
On Sunday, October 9, some 13 ships with 230,700 tonnes of agricultural products for the countries of Africa, Asia and Europe left the ports of Odesa, Pivdenny and Chornomorsk, the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine reported.
“Among them are the bulk carriers ARGONAUT, carrying 71,000 tonnes of wheat for Indonesia, the ALI A (7,000 tonnes of wheat for Lebanon) and the MEHMET BEY (8,000 tonnes of soybeans for Egypt),” the press service informs.
Since the start of the grain corridor operation, 305 ships have exported 6.8 million tonnes of Ukrainian food to the countries of Africa, Asia and Europe.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine allowed exporters to carry out fumigation or disinfection of grain cargo outside Ukraine from Ukrainian legal entities accredited by the State Food and Consumer Service or from foreign companies.
As reported on the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine on Wednesday, the resolution adopted by the government will help unblock the passage of sea vessels with agricultural products under the Istanbul grain agreements.
The document instructs the National Bank of Ukraine to ensure the transfer of funds to pay for grain cargo exporting companies for services related to fumigation and disinfection of grain outside Ukraine, and also regulates the remuneration of the commission agent for these operations.
The procedure for fumigation and disinfection of grain cargo outside Ukraine is published on the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy.
Ukraine in January-August 2022 exported 20.2 million tons of main grain crops, which is a quarter less than in the same period in 2021, while foreign exchange earnings from their supplies decreased by 18% to $5.22 billion.
In terms of crops, 15.1 million tons of corn for $3.8 billion, 4.1 million tons of wheat for $1.2 billion and 0.8 million tons of barley for $0.2 billion were sold abroad in eight months of 2022, according to the website National Research Center “Institute of Agrarian Economics” on Tuesday.
The leading position in the ranking of the main importers of Ukrainian grains was retained by China, whose share in the total grain exports over this period amounted to 14.4% ($749 million). Significant parts of Ukrainian grain exports also fell on Romania (13.9%), Turkey (9.6%), Egypt (7.7%), Spain (7.0%), Poland (6.8%), the Netherlands (4.3%), Iran (3.1%) and Hungary (3.0%).
Together, the above countries bring almost 70% of the income from all exports of grain crops from Ukraine.
As reported with reference to the Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club (UCAB) association, Ukraine exported 6.9 million tons of agricultural products in September 2022 (+ 52% compared to August 2022) due to the resumption of shipping with food cargo from the three Black Sea ports of the country to under the Istanbul Grain Agreements. In terms of crops, 4.4 million tons of grain crops were supplied to foreign markets, of which 2.16 million tons of corn, 1.8 million tons of wheat and 440 thousand tons of barley.
Earlier, the association reported that in August Ukraine exported 4.6 million tons of agricultural products, in July – 3.0 million tons, in June – 2.7 million tons. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, in May agricultural exports amounted to 1.74 million tons, in April – 0.96 million tons, in March – 0.33 million tons.
Prior to the full-scale Russian military invasion, Ukraine exported an average of 5-6 million tons of agricultural products per month, mainly through its maritime infrastructure in the Black Sea.
