In its January review, the International Grains Council (IGC, headquartered in London) raised its forecast for global grain harvest in 2025/26 (July-June) by 31 million tons to a record 2 billion 461 million tons.
This is primarily due to improved forecasts for corn harvests, mainly in the US and China, and barley harvests in Canada and Australia.
In the 2024/25 season, the harvest amounted to 2 billion 238 million tons.
“Thanks to an increase in yield (by 5%) and an increase in acreage (by 1%), the grain harvest in the 2025/26 season will break all existing records. In addition to record corn and wheat harvests, barley and sorghum harvests are also expected to reach multi-year highs,” the review says.
The estimate for grain consumption has been raised by 16 million tons to 2.416 billion tons. Carryover stocks at the end of the season are forecast at 634 million tons, which is almost 16 million tons higher than the previous estimate.
Global trade this season is estimated at 446 million tons, which is 4 million tons higher than the previous forecast and 5% higher on an annualized basis.
The wheat harvest forecast has risen to 842 million tons, which is 12 million tons higher than the previous estimate. In the 2024/25 season, the harvest amounted to 801 million tons. “It is expected that in the 2026/27 season, the area sown with wheat will decrease slightly, and assuming average yields in the next season, the harvest is preliminarily forecast to decline by about 2%,” the review says. “As demand has reached a new peak, a slight reduction in global stocks is expected, but aggregate stocks in major exporting countries will remain at comfortable levels.”
The corn harvest forecast for the 2025/26 season has been raised to 1.313 billion tons from the previous 1.298 billion tons. Last season, 1.238 billion tons were harvested.
The estimate for global rice production has remained virtually unchanged at 543 million tons. Taking into account a slight decline in consumption, stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season will increase by 2 million tons. Expectations for global trade volume in calendar year 2026 have declined slightly, but at 60 million tons (a 2% increase), it will still be a record high, the review notes.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center presented a video analysis of global grain production by leading agricultural countries in the period 1991-2024. The video is available here: https://youtube.com/shorts/2XwiBWf9GrM?si=F9-QsXbWRl2jqV8M
Ukraine’s total elevator capacity at the end of 2025 increased to 52.67 million tons of simultaneous grain storage, compared to 52.1 million tons in October 2024, according to the industry online publication Elevatorist.com.
“The increase in elevator capacity over the year amounted to about 0.5 million tons (1.1%), despite infrastructure losses due to hostilities and the difficult economic situation in the industry,” the publication noted.
The growth was driven by the commissioning of new elevators, the expansion of existing capacities, and the implementation of investment projects, mainly in the central and western regions of Ukraine.
Currently, the top three regions in terms of elevator capacity are Poltava with 5.58 million tons, Odesa with 5.45 million tons, and Vinnytsia with 4.45 million tons, Elevatorist.com noted.
According to the results of 2025, the Agroprosperis agricultural group ranked among the top five exporters of agricultural products from Ukraine, the company’s press service reported on Facebook.
According to the report, the agricultural group exported 3 million tons of agricultural products and processed 20,000 tons of oil products. The ship Agroprospwris 1, which set sail at the beginning of last year, has already delivered grain from Ukrainian ports to ports in Europe, Nigeria, Brazil, and other countries.
“We continue to work, overcome challenges, confidently move towards our goal, and together achieve significant results,” the group assured.
According to a number of industry media outlets, the top five grain exporters from Ukraine in 2024/25 MY include the Kernel agricultural holding, grain traders Louis Dreyfus, ADM, Cargill, and Nibulon.
The Agroprosperis group of companies provides a full range of products and services for growing grain and oilseeds, financing their production, as well as storage and further export. Before the war, it cultivated 430,000 hectares in the Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Rivne, Volyn, and Lviv regions. Its total storage capacity is 800,000 tons of agricultural crops. The group grew and supplied more than 2 million tons of grain and oilseeds for export per year.
Agroprosperis conducts its operations through five divisions: Golden Sunrise (Agro), Bio Agro, Ray Agro, Latagro, New Agro Management, and provides financing to Ukrainian grain producers through Agroprosperis Bank.
As of December 25, 2025, farmers harvested 57.597 million tons of grain and legumes from 10.55 million hectares, which is 94% of the area, as well as 17.4 million tons of oilseeds from 8.13 million hectares, which is 97.7% of the area they sowed.
According to operational information from the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture on the progress of the harvest, 26.45 million tons of corn have been harvested from 3.84 million hectares, 22.96 million tons of wheat from 5.05 million hectares, 5.42 million tons of barley from 1.36 million hectares, 672,500 tons of peas from 275,100 hectares, and 82,700 tons of buckwheat from 10,000 hectares. 5.42 million tons from 1.36 million hectares, peas – 672,500 tons from 275,100 hectares, buckwheat – 82,700 tons from 59,400 hectares, millet – 62,100 tons from 35,800 hectares. The harvest of other cereals and legumes this year reached 934,100 tons from 331,100 hectares as of December 25.
As for oilseeds, as of December 25, the harvest amounted to 3.317 million tons of rapeseed harvested from 1.26 million hectares, 4.81 million tons of soybeans from 2.028 million hectares, and 9.227 million tons of sunflower from 4.838 million hectares.
This year, 10.989 million tons of sugar beets were harvested from 198,800 hectares.
The yield of agricultural crops in Ukraine in the 2025 season was wheat – 45.5 cwt/ha, barley – 39.8 cwt/ha, peas – 24.4 cwt/ha, 71.3 cwt/ha, buckwheat – 13.9 cwt/ha, millet – 17.4 cwt/ha, rapeseed – 26.3 cwt/ha, soybeans – 23.7 cwt/ha, sunflowers – 19.1 cwt/ha, sugar beets – 552.7 cwt/ha.
The Ministry of Economy stated that the largest gap between the actual and projected gross harvest in the grain and legume segment was demonstrated by corn – 87% of the plan, millet (88%), buckwheat (97%), wheat and barley (98%), and buckwheat (97%). Other grains and legumes were harvested at 85% of expectations.
Oil crops showed a higher percentage of fulfillment of the Ministry of Economy’s forecasts: rapeseed – 102%, soybeans – 98%, sunflowers – 93%.
The forecast for sugar beets turned out to be the most realistic – 100% of the plan.
As reported, the Ministry of Economy estimated the area under wheat in 2025 at 5.135 million hectares, a year earlier this figure was 4.884 million hectares (+5.1%), barley – 1.386 million hectares against 1.398 million hectares a year earlier (-0.1%), peas – 277.8 thousand hectares against 210.4 thousand hectares (+32%), corn – 4.399 million hectares against 4.070 million hectares (+8.1), buckwheat – 61.4 thousand hectares against 90.3 thousand hectares (-32%), millet – 40.5 thousand hectares against 92.6 thousand hectares (-56.3%), other cereals and legumes – 345.7 thousand hectares against 360.3 thousand hectares (-4.1%).
The production area under rapeseed in 2025 was 1.24 million hectares compared to 1.26 million hectares a year earlier (-1.6%), soybeans – 2.063 million hectares compared to 2.714 million hectares (-24%), sunflowers – 5.189 million hectares compared to 5.028 million hectares (+3.2%).
The area under sugar beets this year was reduced by 21.5% to 199 thousand hectares.
Ukrainian farmers finished harvesting on November 22, 2024. At that time, 98% of the planned harvest had been obtained.
The corn market is currently the most active segment of Ukrainian grain exports, ensuring stable port loading and constant demand from importers, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk,” created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
“Corn currently remains the only relatively active market segment. As of December 22, exports amounted to almost 1.5 million tons. Although these volumes are not record-breaking, shipments are stable, and it is corn that keeps most ports operating today,” analysts said.
According to their information, demand for corn on the world market remains high. Ukrainian corn remains in demand in EU countries, particularly in Spain and Italy, which are among the key buyers, as well as in Turkey.
At the same time, importers are closely monitoring the security situation in Ukraine.
“Importers are aware that the war is not expected to end quickly in the coming months and that risks to port infrastructure will remain. If exports from Ukraine are halted or significantly reduced, it will be difficult for the global market to quickly cover the possible deficit. American corn has already been contracted for January and almost entirely for February, so there are virtually no alternatives to Ukraine for supplies during this period,” experts said.
At the end of the week, spot corn prices rose to $207–208 per ton, while domestic contract prices rose to 9,800–9,850 UAH/ton.
“Further price dynamics will largely depend on the growth rate of logistics costs and security risks,” Pusk said.
As of December 5, farmers have harvested 53.597 million tons of grain and legumes from 10.55 million hectares, which is 91% of the area sown with these crops, according to the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture.
According to the Ministry of Economy, 23.5 million tons of corn have been harvested from 3.44 million hectares. As for wheat, its yield is slightly higher than a year ago – 22.96 million tons from 5.05 million hectares compared to 22.40 million tons from 4.9 million hectares, while barley is slightly lower – 5.42 million tons from 1.36 million hectares compared to last year’s 5.6 million tons from 1.41 million hectares.
This year’s pea harvest is significantly higher – 672,500 tons from 275,100 hectares compared to 469,000 tons from 212,300 hectares a year ago, while buckwheat and millet are still significantly lower – 82.7 thousand tons compared to 131.7 thousand tons and 62.1 thousand tons compared to 161.3 thousand tons, respectively.
The harvest of other cereals and legumes this year reached 899.6 thousand tons from 327.8 thousand hectares as of December 5, compared to 1 million tons a year ago.
The Ministry of Economy has calculated that the corn harvest has been gathered from 78% of the production areas allocated for this crop, millet – from 88%, buckwheat – from 97%, wheat and barley – from 98%.
As for oilseeds, their harvest as of December 5 is 17.11 million tons. In general, sunflower has been harvested from 93% of the sown areas, and soybeans from 97%. The rapeseed harvest has been completed, and it turned out to be only slightly less than last year’s – 3.31 million tons against 3.5 million tons from almost identical areas – about 1.3 million hectares.
Currently, 4.75 million tons of soybeans have been harvested from 2.00 million hectares, while 9.04 million tons of sunflower seeds have been harvested from 4.81 million hectares.
In addition, the harvest of sugar beets is also lagging behind: 98% of the production area has been harvested, yielding 10.39 million tons from 195,000 hectares.
In its October inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine increased its estimate of the grain and legume harvest in 2025 to 61.5 million tons from 57.9 million tons in the July report, while lowering its estimate of the oilseed harvest to 19.3 million tons from 21.0 million tons.
The NBU recalled that last year, the grain harvest in Ukraine fell to 56.2 million tons from 59.8 million tons in 2023, and oilseeds from 21.7 million tons to 20 million tons.
