Ukrainian industry is one of the sectors of the economy most affected by the war. Since February 24, many large enterprises, primarily in the east and south of the country, have lost their production capacities, and the staff was forced to evacuate. At the same time, individual production facilities were transferred to the western regions, where they are being restored on the basis of more modern industrial facilities, such as industrial parks that appeared shortly before the war.
The Open4business portal spoke about the future of Ukrainian industry and the prospects for the restoration of production with Igor Stakovychenko, an expert in the field of economics.
According to the expert, the production of goods with high added value should become a priority for the development of the economy for decades to come.
“Before the aggression, our industry worked mainly according to standards that were not particularly modernized in 30 years of independence. This is the so-called canonical model, when you have raw materials, workshops, shipping, logistics, and so on. And there must also be stable consumers who will always buy products. Many plants with such a system failed the market test and closed down. Mostly giants remained, who more or less adapted. After the war, it will definitely not be possible to rebuild production in the same form, a fundamentally new model is needed, ”Igor Stakovichenko is sure.
The expert noted that in the modern world, the modernization of production involves the introduction of new management methods, as well as the creation of more adaptive sites, such as industrial zones or parks.
“If you have a workshop for the production of one specific part, which is itself part of a complex and long chain for creating the final product, then the situation above is rather precarious in modern conditions since you depend on many factors: suppliers, market situation, current conjuncture. If you have, for example, a 3D printer that can produce any shape to order for a specific client, then the situation is more stable for you, since you can quickly reorient yourself when the market changes. In the modern world, the industry is striving for greater universalization,” explained Igor Stakovichenko.
According to him, the restoration of the industry should begin now and be based, firstly, on the creation of industrial parks in safe regions, and secondly, on the modernization of existing industries for new models. As an example, Stakovichenko cites the development of this concept in Poland or the Czech Republic, where industrial zones already provide up to 50% of GDP.
“The government is now acting in the right direction, providing tax incentives to such industrial zones, this will lay the foundation for the rapid restoration of the country’s industrial potential in the post-war period,” Stakovichenko summed up.
ECONOMY, IGOR STAKOVICHENKO, INDUSTRY, MARKETS, PRODUCTION, STAKOVICHENKO
The war caused and continues to cause significant damage to the economy of Ukraine. Today, perhaps, the construction and real estate markets suffered the most from the hostilities. Thus, the report of the National Bank of Ukraine “On Financial Stability” dated June 17, 2022 indicates that since the beginning of the war, the market has practically stopped, both in terms of construction and the sale of housing. At the same time, according to the NBU, the situation has begun to level off in recent weeks, and above all in the regions that are least affected by the destruction from the war.
The most favorable situation is in the western regions of the country, while the National Bank notes that a number of significant problems remain there. First of all, this is a market imbalance, when the prices declared by sellers are not supported by demand and are supported artificially.
As for construction, here, according to the regulator, the situation is more optimistic. Developers have restored work on almost 50% of the facilities in the country. The most positive dynamics is observed in the western regions, in the center and in the Odessa region.
As for the office real estate market, according to the NBU, it suffered to a greater extent from the massive transition of staff to remote work.
The Open4business portal asked financial expert Igor Stakovichenko to comment on the current situation. In his opinion, the severity of the crisis in the real estate market directly depends primarily on the intensity of hostilities in various regions of the country, as well as on the well-being of the population.
“We see that the demand for housing in the same Kharkiv and Dnipro collapsed almost equally. At the same time, housing construction in Kharkiv is at a standstill, while in Dnipro it is being restored. This is due to the risk assessment by developers, since the Kharkiv region is now under devastating shelling by the aggressor,” the expert believes.
In his opinion, most of the prices in both the primary and secondary markets are dictated by the overestimated expectations of developers who continue to hope to find a buyer for their goods despite changes in the economy and a decrease in the income of part of the population.
“Builders think in the old way, and form the price based on the cost and those mark-ups that were fair in the pre-war period. Buyers have become much more cautious and assess the risks, in particular, the presence of bomb shelters, evacuation routes, and so on. As for the secondary market, here prices are often drawn from the ceiling, hoping more for luck, ”said Stakovichenko.
According to the expert, market recovery can be expected after the end of the war, when the demand for housing will increase and investors’ fears will decrease.
CONSTRUCTION, EXPERT, FINANCY, IGOR STAKOVICHENKO, MARKETS, REAL ESTATE MARKET, STAKOVICHENKO
