In 2024, Ukraine demonstrated an increase in foreign trade, but there are still problems that limit its opportunities in international markets. The lack of a sufficient number of enterprises with deep processing, complex logistics, and the impact of global economic processes pose serious challenges for Ukrainian business.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, and Yevheniia Lytvynova, president of the Ukrainian Exporters Club, analyzed the trends of 2024 and assessed the development prospects for 2025.
Trade balance: export growth but large deficit
According to experts, the total volume of Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2024 reached USD 113 billion, which is 13% more than in 2023.
Key figures:
Despite the growth in exports, the main problem remains a significant trade deficit. This indicates that the economy is dependent on imports, which puts additional pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate and requires finding new solutions to increase exports of high value-added products.
“Despite the positive dynamics of exports, Ukraine is still dependent on imports, especially in the field of technology and equipment. The negative balance remains a serious challenge for our economy,” said Yevheniya Lytvynova.
Main trading partners: Poland, Spain, Germany
Experts Club has compiled a list of Ukraine’s top 10 trading partners in terms of exports:
1. Poland – 4.7 billion dollars
2. Spain – 2.9 billion dollars
3. Germany – 2.8 billion dollars
4. China – 2.3 billion dollars
5. Turkey – 2.1 billion dollars
6. The Netherlands – 1.98 billion dollars
7. Italy – 1.93 billion dollars
8. Egypt – 1.6 billion dollars
9. India – 986 million dollars
10. Moldova – $935 million
“In 2024, Spain unexpectedly ranked second among importers of Ukrainian products. This is partly due to the high demand for Ukrainian products due to the migration of Ukrainians. However, it should be borne in mind that a significant portion of these exports is re-exported via European countries,” explained Maksym Urakin.
At the same time, China has traditionally been in the lead among Ukraine’s top 10 importers:
1. China – $14.4 billion
2. Poland – $7 billion
3. Germany – 5.4 billion dollars
4. Turkey – 4.72 billion dollars
5. USA – 2.86 billion dollars
6. Italy – 2.27 billion dollars
7. Bulgaria – 2.22 billion dollars
8. India – 1.88 billion dollars
9. Czech Republic – 1.78 billion dollars
10. France – 1.75 billion dollars
Export structure: Ukraine remains a supplier of raw materials
Food products account for the largest share of exports – about $25 billion. Other main products include metals (about $5 billion) and equipment ($4 billion).
“Ukraine continues to export mostly raw materials. This means that the main profit from processing and added value remains abroad. We need reforms that will allow us to develop domestic production and processing,” emphasized Yevheniya Lytvynova.
Import structure: machinery, chemicals, fuel
In 2024, the largest categories of imports were machinery and equipment ($25 billion), chemicals ($11.7 billion), and energy ($8.9 billion).
“The main share of imports is aimed at supporting business rather than the consumer market. This means that companies are actively upgrading production and importing machinery,” explained Maksym Urakin.
New markets: opportunities and obstacles
In 2025, many Ukrainian companies are planning to enter the markets of the Middle East, Africa and Asia more actively. In particular, a free trade agreement is expected to be signed with Turkey, which will make the country an even more important trading partner.
“Turkey is already one of Ukraine’s top five partners. If the FTA is ratified, we will see an even greater increase in trade turnover,” emphasized Yevgeniya Lytvynova.
At the same time, global protectionism and trade wars may create additional challenges. The United States has already begun to impose new duties on imports from Canada, Mexico and China.
“If the US imposes additional duties, it could lead to a chain reaction in global trade, and price increases will affect even Ukraine. Our companies should be ready to adapt to the new realities,” said Maksym Urakin.
What should Ukrainian businesses do?
When it comes to the main recommendations for exporters in 2025, the experts identified the following areas:
1. It is necessary to diversify markets by balancing exports to the EU with the simultaneous development of the Middle East, Asia and Africa.
2. Develop processing by reducing exports of raw materials and expanding sales of high value-added products.
3. Increase competitiveness by adapting production to the requirements of foreign markets.
4. Preparing for changes in global trade by adapting the strategy in response to possible duties and trade barriers.
“We have to learn to play by the rules of global competition. If Ukrainian exporters are not ready for changes, the market will be quickly taken over by someone else,” summarized Yevgeniya Lytvynova.
You can learn more about Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2024 in the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFxad1mplE0&t
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ECONOMY, EXPERTS CLUB, EXPORTERS CLUB, EXPORTS, IMPORTS, TRADE, URAKIN, ЛИТВИНОВА
In January-February 2025, imports of passenger cars, including cargo and passenger vans and racing cars (UKT FEA code 8703), decreased by 7.8% in monetary terms compared to the same period last year to $719.92 million.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS) of Ukraine, in February, imports of passenger cars to Ukraine were 3% higher than in February 2014, up to $385.94 million, while in January there was a 17.8% drop compared to January 2013.
In January-February of this year, the top three largest suppliers of cars to Ukraine were Germany, the United States and Japan, while last year it was the United States, China and Germany.
In particular, car deliveries from Germany increased by almost 40% to $152.15 million, and their share in the structure of car imports amounted to 21.13% compared to 13.94% a year earlier.
Ukraine imported $122.13 million worth of cars from the United States (15% less). Japan, which last year was not among the top three countries with the largest car imports, supplied $79 million worth of cars in two months this year.
Notably, China is not among the top three, with imports amounting to $114.88 million a year ago (second place after the United States).
In general, imports of passenger cars from other countries amounted to $366.63 million in the period under review, compared to $413.87 million in January-February last year.
At the same time, in January-February this year, Ukraine exported such vehicles for only $1.9 million, in particular to the UAE (67% of exports), the Czech Republic and Moldova, while a year earlier the country sold them to foreign markets for $3.8 million, mainly to Canada (47.7%), the United States (26.8%) and Moldova.
According to the State Customs Service, in the total structure of imports of goods to Ukraine in January-February, the share of passenger cars was 6.37%, in the structure of exports – 0.03%.
As reported, in 2024, Ukraine imported passenger cars worth $4.385 billion, 8% more than a year earlier, and exported $10.1 million (2.7 times less).
Canada will impose a 25% duty on $155 billion worth of imports from the United States in response to the US tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said.
“In response to the US trade actions, Canada will impose a 25% duty on $155 billion worth of goods,” the prime minister said in a video message.
He explained that starting Tuesday of next week, the duties will affect $30 billion worth of goods, then $125 billion worth of goods within three weeks so that Canadian companies have time to find alternative partners.
The government and the leadership of the provinces and territories are also considering the possibility of imposing non-tariff restrictions on the United States regarding critical minerals, energy and other goods, Trudeau said.
Europe should be prepared for a possible increase in tariffs on imports of goods to the United States, as promised by President Donald Trump, said European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. The fact that Trump has not yet signed a decree to impose additional duties on all imports was “a very sensible approach, as total tariffs will not necessarily lead to the expected results,” Lagarde said in an interview with CNBC in Davos.
In her opinion, the new US tariffs will be more “selective and focused”.
“We in Europe need to prepare and wait in advance to see what will happen in order to respond to it,” Lagarde added.
At the same time, the ECB President noted that the regulator is “not too concerned” about external risks to inflation.
In response to a journalist’s question about the possible consequences of a new wave of inflation in the United States, Lagarde said that “accelerating inflation in the United States will be a problem for the United States, and that is where the main effects will be felt first.”
The ECB has cut rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2024, with the key deposit rate now at 3%. Economists expect four rate cuts of 25 bps each in 2025. Earlier, the Experts Club think tank, Brian Mefford and Maxim Urakin, released a video analysis on what changes are expected in US domestic and foreign policy under Trump, the video is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtu.be/W2elNY1xczM?si=MM-QjSqGce4Tlq6T
In January-November this year, Ukrainian companies increased imports of copper and copper products in value terms by 6.1% year-on-year to $127.286 million.
According to customs statistics released by the State Customs Service of Ukraine on Monday, exports of copper and copper products increased by 24.5% to $81.110 million over the period under review.
In November, Ukraine imported copper worth $11.033 million and exported it worth $8.129 million.
As reported, in 2023, Ukraine increased imports of copper and copper products by 2.2 times compared to 2022 – up to $140.795 million, while exports decreased by 20.1% to $72.078 million.
Copper is widely used in electrical engineering, pipe manufacturing, alloys, medicine and other industries.
The Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade (ICIT) has imposed provisional anti-dumping duties on imports of radiators originating in Turkey and China in the amount of 41.86% and 42% respectively.
According to the ICIT’s announcement in the Uryadovy Courier newspaper on Friday, the decision comes into force five days after the date of publication of the announcement.
The announcement recalls that the anti-dumping investigation was initiated by the ICIT decision of 12 April 2024 based on the complaint of Ukrainian producers Sun Tech Paradise LLC and UTERM Ukraine LLC, whose share in the overall proceedings in Ukraine exceeds 50%.
The ICMT found that during the study period (January 1, 2023 – March 31, 2024), the financial and economic indicators of the national producer deteriorated, in particular, the volume of production – by 74.56%, production capacity – by 13.75%, capacity utilization – by 70.5%, and the volume of sales in the Ukrainian market – by 40.97%.
In addition, the financial result from the sale of goods deteriorated by 1606.24%, labor productivity by 59.47%, and the volume of investments in dollar terms by 78.69%.
The Commission also points out that in the first quarter of 2024, the volume of imports of radiators from Turkey and China increased by 157.13% compared to the same period in 2023 and by 21.9% compared to the first quarter of 2021.
The ICIT report also notes that the losses to the national producer from dumped imports of radiators from Turkey and China are confirmed by the fact that the volume of imports from these countries during the study period increased by 31.27% in terms of consumption of such goods in Ukraine and by 173.29% in terms of production.
The anti-dumping measures are applied to heating radiators (steel, aluminum, bimetallic) (excluding towel rails, water floor convectors and designer radiators) classified under UKT VED codes ex 7322 19 00 00, ex 7616 99 10 00, ex 7616 99 90 00.
San Tech Paradise LLC (Odesa region) manufactures plumbing products for heating, water supply, and sewage. According to its website, it has two factories in Ukraine (130 thousand square meters of production space) and produces 20 thousand tons of products per year. The company exports its products to Poland, Romania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Georgia, and Mongolia, among others.
According to Opendatabot, in 2023, the company reduced its net profit by 40% compared to 2022, to UAH 61.2 million, while net revenue increased by 15.3% to UAH 552.2 million.
The company is owned by Andriy Kovalenko and Oleksandr Bozhko (50% each).
“UTERM Ukraine (Bila Tserkva, Kyiv region) has been operating in the steel panel radiator market since 2013.
According to Opendatabot, in 2023, the company earned UAH 6.7 million in net profit, compared to UAH 0.4 million a year earlier, with net revenue falling by 48.6% to UAH 124.3 million. The company is owned by four entrepreneurs with equal shares of 25% each.
