Ukraine may save $5-6 billion on energy imports in 2020 due to a 50-60% reduction in prices for energy products, which account for 20% of the country’s imports, NBU Deputy Governor Dmytro Sologub has said.
“Our balance of payments shows that there are both positive and negative influence factors in our current account. First of all, this is a fall in oil prices, energy products, which account for 20% of our imports, compared to $12 billion in 2019. A fall in oil prices, a decrease in gas demand may lead to the fact that this year we will save $5-6 billion,” he said at an online briefing on Friday.
Sologub said that the epidemiological situation has led to a reduction in tourist travel.
“Last year, tourist trips of Ukrainian citizens amounted to $8 billion, and we can also expect a significant reduction,” Sologub said.
According to him, the National Bank expects a slight decrease in food prices, which account for more than 50% in Ukrainian exports. To date, the fall in food prices is much lower than for energy.
“As we understand it, even in a crisis, especially when sitting at home, people will consume food and this is the last thing they will refuse. Therefore, we expect that the demand for our export products will preserve, and if it decreases, then insignificantly,” the banker said.
He said that now there is a decrease in money transfers to the country from Ukrainian citizens working abroad. The National Bank expects that the reduction in the indicator will also be less than in energy products.
“Most likely, this influence will be temporary, as economic recovery in Poland, the Czech Republic, Italy will lead to the resumption of remittances,” he said.
Ukraine from March 1 through March 17, 2020 increased imports of food by 40,000 tonnes year-over-year, to 158,000 tonnes with the cost being $211 million, the State Customs Service said on Thursday. “Some 40,000 tonnes of food products more were brought to Ukraine during 17 days of March compared with the same period in 2019. In general, food imports amounted to 158,000 tonnes worth $211 million. This is almost 8,000 completely filled trucks carrying 20 tonnes,” the customs authority wrote on its page in the Facebook social network.
According to the authority, the supply of cheese, eggs, honey tripled and amounted to 3,177 tonnes worth $13.6 million, imports of finished products from grain, flour, flour confectionery products rose by 86%, to 6,166 tons worth $12.3 million.
Deliveries of vegetables, some edible roots and potatoes increased 138%, to 38,900 tonnes worth $20.4 million.
The milk and milk group of goods showed growth by 163%, to 921 tonnes worth $1.2 million, fish imports – by 73%, to 2,493 tonnes worth $14 million.
Deliveries of coffee, tea, mate and spices increased by some 33%, to 1,293 tonnes worth $4.3 million, extracts, essences and coffee concentrates, syrups, sauces, soups, etc. grew by 23%, to 3,854 tonnes worth $25.1 million.
Import of fruits and nuts also increased slightly, by 3%, to 45,837 tonnes worth $33.9 million.
The Ministry of Energy and Environmental Protection of Ukraine has included in the forecast balance of electricity generation in the Integrated Power System (IPS) of Ukraine for 2020 the growth of electricity imports at twice compared to the actual indicator of 2019, to 5.615 billion kWh.
According to the updated balance posted on the ministry’s website, electricity exports are also expected to grow by 30%, to 8.455 billion kWh.
The electricity generation will decrease by 1.2% compared with the actual indicators of 2019, to 152.105 billion kWh. In particular, nuclear power plants expect to reach 80.639 billion kWh of electricity generation (2.9% less compared to 2019), thermal power plants 42.129 billion kWh (6.2% less), combined heat and power plants and cogeneration plants 11.064 billion kWh (1.8% more), all hydroelectric power stations 5.088 billion (22% less), pumped storage plants 1.258 billion kWh (6.6% less), block stations 1.643 billion kWh (7% less), and alternative energy sources 10.284 billion kWh (85.6% more).
Thus, according to forecasts, the share of nuclear power plants of the structure of electricity generation in 2020 will be 53.02% (53.91% at the end of 2019), thermal power plants some 27.7% (29.17%), combined heat and power plants and cogeneration plants some 7.27% (7.06%), hydroelectric power stations some 3.35% (4.24%), pumped storage plants some 0.83% (0.87%), block stations some 1.08% (1.15%), and alternative energy sources some 6.8% (3.6%).
Electricity consumption in the country is expected to reach 147.517 billion kWh in 2020, which is 1.8% less compared to the actual indicators of 2019.
Electricity consumption of pumped storage plants in the pump mode is predicted to be 1.752 billion kWh (1.834 billion kWh in 2019).
Ukraine could limit imports of cheese from the European Union (EU) over almost doubled increase in supplies of cheese in 2019 and due to growth of smuggling, Deputy Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture Minister of Ukraine, Taras Kachka, who is also the Trade Representative of Ukraine, has said.
“I’m very annoyed by the situation with the sharp increase in imports of cheeses and generally dairy products from the EU to Ukraine, even smuggling… To stop this, we can take very brutal steps. For example, safeguard measures against the import of cheeses into Ukraine,” Kachka said in an interview with Yevropeiska Pravda (European Truth) ezine.
He said that the sharp increase in imports of these products negatively affects Ukrainian producers.
“If our manufacturers make such a request, it is very likely [that such a scenario will be implemented],” the trade representative said.
“But this is a negative scenario, which can be avoided through greater coordination and greater support for each other. This coordination is much more important to me now in relations with the EU than the revision of tariff quotas,” he said.
In January and February of 2020, Ukrainian enterprises reduced the import of copper and copper products in value terms by 2.1% compared to the same period in 2019, to $15.338 million.
According to customs statistics, released by the State Customs Service of Ukraine, export of copper and copper products decreased by 15.9%, to $9.814 million in the first two months of 2020.
In February, copper and copper products were imported to the tune of $8.450 million, exported to the tune of $5.895 million.
In addition, Ukraine in January and February of 2020 reduced the import of nickel and nickel products by 11.3% compared to the same month of 2019, to $14.008 million (in February amounted to $6.034 million), but increased the import of aluminum and aluminum products by 13.7%, to $57.714 million ($30.315 million). At the same time, the import of lead and lead products decreased by 60.6%, to $896,000 ($364,000), while tin and tin products grew by 24.5%, to $447,000 ($295,000), zinc and zinc products rose by 4.3%, to $7.562 million ($3.331 million).
In January and February of 2020, exports of aluminum and aluminum products increased by 11.9%, compared to the same period of 2019, to $16.839 million (in February amounted to $9.679 million), lead and lead products increased by 73.7%, to $5.179 million ($2.672 million), nickel and nickel products increased by 18.2%, to $480,000 ($320,000). Zinc exports in January and February of 2020 amounted to $11,000, while in the same period of 2019 amounted to $86,000 (in February amounted to $8,000). The export of tin and tin products in January and February of 2020 amounted to $16,000, while in the same period of 2019 amounted to $15,000 (there was no export in February).
In January and February of 2020, Ukrainian enterprises reduced the import of copper and copper products in value terms by 2.1% compared to the same period in 2019, to $15.338 million.
According to customs statistics, released by the State Customs Service of Ukraine, export of copper and copper products decreased by 15.9%, to $9.814 million in the first two months of 2020.
In February, copper and copper products were imported to the tune of $8.450 million, exported to the tune of $5.895 million.
In addition, Ukraine in January and February of 2020 reduced the import of nickel and nickel products by 11.3% compared to the same month of 2019, to $14.008 million (in February amounted to $6.034 million), but increased the import of aluminum and aluminum products by 13.7%, to $57.714 million ($30.315 million). At the same time, the import of lead and lead products decreased by 60.6%, to $896,000 ($364,000), while tin and tin products grew by 24.5%, to $447,000 ($295,000), zinc and zinc products rose by 4.3%, to $7.562 million ($3.331 million).
In January and February of 2020, exports of aluminum and aluminum products increased by 11.9%, compared to the same period of 2019, to $16.839 million (in February amounted to $9.679 million), lead and lead products increased by 73.7%, to $5.179 million ($2.672 million), nickel and nickel products increased by 18.2%, to $480,000 ($320,000). Zinc exports in January and February of 2020 amounted to $11,000, while in the same period of 2019 amounted to $86,000 (in February amounted to $8,000). The export of tin and tin products in January and February of 2020 amounted to $16,000, while in the same period of 2019 amounted to $15,000 (there was no export in February).
