In its October inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine increased its estimate for the grain and legume harvest in 2025 to 61.5 million tons from 57.9 million tons in its July report, but lowered its estimate for the oilseed harvest to 19.3 million tons from 21.0 million tons.
“According to the NBU’s assumptions, in 2026-2027, grain and legume harvests will grow thanks to further increases in agricultural productivity and an increase in corn and other grain crops in regions less affected by climate change,” the document says.
However, according to the National Bank, the harvest of oilseeds, which are mainly grown in the southern regions, will be lower due to the negative impact of climate change, exacerbated by the long-term consequences of the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant for the region’s irrigation systems.
“The security situation in the frontline regions of the south will continue to have an impact, worsening conditions for the 2026 sowing campaign and slowing down the pace of land demining,” the report also says.
As a result, the National Bank has improved its grain harvest forecast for 2026 from 59.6 million tons to 62.9 million tons, and for 2027 from 60.4 million tons to 63.5 million tons.
At the same time, oilseed harvest expectations have been reduced to 21.4 million tons next year from 22.0 million tons, and to 22.2 million tons in 2027 from 22.8 million tons.
“However, the NBU expects the livestock sector to continue to make a negative contribution to agricultural value added due to a further reduction in livestock numbers (with the exception of poultry),” the report also notes.
According to the State Statistics Service, the volume of early crops (wheat, barley, rapeseed, legumes) as of October 1, 2025, reached 32.6 million tons, while the 2024 harvest yielded 31.9 million tons (+2.1%). The current growth is primarily due to higher yields of wheat (+3.9%) and legumes (+35%), while the barley harvest has practically reached last year’s level (-0.6%), and the rapeseed harvest is 10.7% lower than last year.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center made a video analysis of wheat production by the world’s leading countries for the period 1991-2024.
As of April 11, Ukraine planted 1.26 million hectares with spring grains and pulses, up 72.2% year-on-year, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported on Friday.
According to the report, 173.9 thousand hectares were planted with wheat (118.3 thousand hectares a week earlier), 683.4 thousand hectares with barley (543.2 thousand hectares), 147.7 thousand hectares with peas (119.0 thousand hectares), and 117 thousand hectares with oats (62.4 thousand hectares).
Over the past week, Ukrainian farmers sowed grains and legumes on the area of 408.6 thou hectares, a week earlier the figure was 375.4 thou hectares, and 262.2 thou hectares – a week earlier.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Kyiv region is the leader in terms of sowing rates, having planted 23 thou hectares of wheat, 39.3 thou hectares of barley, 4.7 thou hectares of peas and 3.6 thou hectares of oats; Ternopil region – 18.9 thou. hectares of wheat, 63.6 thousand hectares of barley, 3.6 thousand hectares of peas and 5.1 thousand hectares of oats; Khmelnytsky – 14.5 thousand hectares of wheat, 63.6 thousand hectares of barley, 3.6 thousand hectares of peas and 5.1 thousand hectares of oats; Khmelnytsky – 14.5 thousand hectares of wheat. Khmelnytsky – 14.8 thousand hectares of wheat, 59.1 thousand hectares of barley, 2.6 thousand hectares of peas and 2.5 thousand hectares of oats; Zhytomyr – 13.7 thousand hectares of wheat, 15.9 thousand hectares of barley, 2.6 thousand hectares of peas and 2.5 thousand hectares of oats; Zhytomyr – 13.7 thousand hectares of wheat, 15.9 thousand hectares of barley, 2.6 thousand hectares of peas and 2.5 thousand hectares of oats. Zhytomyr region – 13.7 thou hectares of wheat, 15.9 thou hectares of barley, 2.6 thou hectares of peas and 17.9 thou hectares of oats; Vinnytsia region – 11.5 thou hectares of wheat, 52.3 thou hectares of barley, 6 thou hectares of peas and 1.1 thou hectares of oats.
Farmers in Poltava region have completed sowing early grains and pulses. They have planted 6.5 thou hectares of wheat, 73 thou hectares of barley, 8.5 thou hectares of peas and 2.3 thou hectares of oats.
Sunflower was sown on 470.1 thou hectares. Soybeans are being sown in 9 regions. Farmers in 15 regions have started sowing corn, which has already been planted on 120 thousand hectares.
Sugar beet was sown on 157.6 thou hectares. The largest area under this crop is in Vinnytsia region – 42 thou hectares.
Farmers in Mykolaiv, Odesa, Khmelnytsky and Kherson regions have started sowing buckwheat and millet.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy reported that 70% of respondents plan to increase soybean acreage by an average of 21% compared to 2023, according to a survey conducted by the State Agrarian Register on farmers’ preparations for the spring crops sowing campaign for the 2024 harvest.
The survey also showed that during the spring sowing campaign, Ukrainian farmers will prioritize pulses, which will increase by 11%, and spring barley – by 7%. The area under spring rapeseed is expected to increase by 24%, sugar beet by 17%, and corn by 9%. The area under sunflower may potentially decrease.
In general, in 2024, the area under spring crops may decrease by 0.5 million hectares or 3.7% compared to last season, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy.
Ukraine since the beginning of the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of September 10, exported 10.29 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, which is 11.7% more than the figures for the same date of the previous MY.
According to the information and analytical portal of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine, to date, Ukraine exported 5.92 million tonnes of wheat (4.1% less compared to the same date 2020/2021 MY); 2.99 million tonnes of barley (up 24.7%); 1.34 million tonnes of corn (2.2 times more); and 24,700 tonnes of flour (33.7% less).
As of the indicated date, 14,300 tonnes of rye were also exported, which is 9.5 times more than the indicators of the last MY.
Ukraine since the beginning of the new 2020/2021 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of August 7, 2020 had exported 3.24 million tonnes of grains and legumes, which is 1.2 million tonnes less than on this date in the past MY.
According to the information and analytical portal of the Ukrainian agro-industrial complex, 1.67 million tonnes of wheat, 1.07 million tonnes of barley and 498,000 tonnes of corn have been exported to date.
As of August 7 of this year, 21,800 tonnes of flour had been also exported.
As reported, Ukraine exported a record 57.2 million tonnes of grain, legumes and flour in the 2019/2020 MY, which is 13.5% more than in the previous MY.
