Global grain production in 2026 could reach one of the highest levels on record, but international trade is declining due to logistical restrictions, particularly shipping problems in the Black Sea. Ensuring global food security depends not only on the volume of production but also on the ability to transport products to consumers on time and at an affordable price, SEEDS reports, citing an analysis by international expert Kateryna Zvierieva.
According to the latest estimates by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global grain production in 2026 is forecast at 2.979 billion tonnes. This is the second-highest figure on record. At the same time, the volume of international grain trade is projected to decrease by 3.5% to 505.8 million tonnes.
Among the main factors behind the decline in trade, FAO identifies shipping difficulties in the Black Sea and insufficient capacity of alternative transport corridors. As a result, even with high production volumes, certain regions may face supply disruptions and rising costs of imported food.
As Kateryna Zvierieva, an international expert in strategic communications in the agri-food sector, sustainable development and food systems, notes in an article for the Italian publication Agricultura.it, risks to food security are not necessarily associated with a physical shortage of grain. The availability of transport routes, delivery speed and logistics costs play a significant role.
The situation in Ukraine is particularly illustrative in this context, as grain exports remain dependent on security conditions, the operation of port infrastructure and the capacity of alternative routes.
According to the State Customs Service of Ukraine, as of October 16, the country had exported 5.929 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops since the beginning of the 2026/27 marketing year. This is 24.9% less than during the corresponding period of the previous season.
At the same time, export trends for individual crops differ significantly. In particular, wheat shipments decreased by 40.5%, while corn exports increased by approximately 80%. This difference indicates that logistical and market factors have varying effects on individual segments of the grain market.
The structure of transport routes has also changed. According to the European Commission, in September 2026, about 90% of Ukrainian exports of grain, oilseeds and related products were transported through the Solidarity Lanes between Ukraine and the EU. Meanwhile, approximately 10% of shipments passed through Black Sea ports.
Rail, road and river transport make it possible to maintain exports even under restrictions on maritime logistics. However, their capacity remains an important factor determining the volumes, delivery times and costs of agricultural product shipments.
Logistical difficulties also affect global food prices. According to FAO, the Food Price Index rose by 1.5% in September compared with August and by 5.8% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the cereal price sub-index increased by 5.1% over the month and by 17.2% compared with September 2025.
In particular, global wheat prices rose by 6.3% during the month. Among the reasons cited are restrictions on transport connections in the Black Sea region and dry weather conditions in certain areas of North America. Corn became 5.6% more expensive amid expectations regarding yields in the United States and a reduction in export supplies from Brazil.
According to Zvierieva, delays in transporting products create risks not only for international trade but also for the financial stability of agricultural enterprises. Longer delivery times and higher transport costs affect farmers’ working capital, their ability to finance current operations and investments in subsequent production cycles.
At the same time, high global harvests and declining trade do not automatically mean the emergence of a global food crisis. However, the current situation demonstrates the dependence of food markets on transport infrastructure and the stability of international supply chains.
Thus, ensuring global food security increasingly depends on countries’ ability to maintain stable logistics routes, diversify transport corridors and reduce food delivery costs.
Kateryna Zvierieva is an international expert in strategic communications in the agri-food sector, sustainable development and food systems. She has collaborated with FAO and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). She is the founder of Sapienza.media.
Agricultural exports, FAO, FOOD SECURITY, GLOBAL MARKETS, GRAINS, KATERYNA ZVIERIEVA, LOGISTICS, UKRAINE
As of July 7, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 1.022 million metric tons of early-season grains and legumes from the new crop, according to the press service of the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture.
“This year, due to weather conditions, the harvest began somewhat later. But farmers are working as hard as they can, and we’ve already reached the first million metric tons of grain—that’s a good result for this time of year. It was made possible by the coordinated efforts of producers and the efficient organization of fieldwork, even amid security and logistical challenges,” the press service quoted Deputy Minister Taras Vysotsky as saying.
According to the ministry, the harvest of early grain and legume crops is underway in 15 regions. Grain has already been threshed on an area of 251,400 hectares, which accounts for 3% of the projected area, with an average yield of 40.7 centners per hectare.
Farmers have already harvested 719.4 thousand metric tons of barley, 264.6 thousand metric tons of wheat, and 35.1 thousand metric tons of peas.
In the Kherson and Ivano-Frankivsk regions, the rapeseed harvest has begun, with 2.68 thousand metric tons harvested so far.
The largest volumes of grain from the new harvest were harvested by farmers in the Odesa (389 thousand metric tons) and Mykolaiv (347.2 thousand metric tons) regions.
According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukrainian farmers planted over 20 million hectares with winter and spring grains and oilseeds in 2026. Specifically, 5.88 million hectares were planted with spring grains and legumes, and 7 million hectares with industrial crops.
Farmers in the Odesa region were the first in Ukraine to begin the harvest; specifically, the harvest of winter barley and peas has begun, according to Oleg Kipper, head of the Odesa Regional Military Administration.
“The initial results of the harvest indicate good yields. This allows us to view the prospects for this year’s harvest campaign with optimism,” Kipper noted.
According to his data, farmers in the Odesa region are expected to harvest grains and legumes from nearly 770 thousand hectares this year. As is traditional, winter and spring wheat account for the largest share of the crops—over 522,000 hectares. Barley covers nearly 176,000 hectares, peas—about 74,400 hectares, and rapeseed—over 175,000 hectares.
As previously reported, a total of about 11.3 million hectares were sown with winter and spring grains and legumes in Ukraine this year, while total oilseed crops covered more than 20 million hectares.
In its June report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year (July–June) to 23.5 million tons from 23 million tons, as projected a month earlier, and also increased its export estimate from 13 million tons to 14 million tons.
In the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA analysts attributed the forecast revision for Ukraine to favorable weather conditions in the spring.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the upward revision of the forecast for Ukraine was one of the factors behind the increase in the forecast for global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year from 819.1 million tons to 820.1 million tons. Global wheat trade was also revised upward—from 211.7 million tons to 212.0 million tons.
In addition, the USDA raised its forecast for Ukraine’s barley harvest in the 2026/27 marketing year by 300,000 tons—from 5.5 million tons to 5.8 million tons, as expected a month earlier.
The export estimate was also increased by the same 300,000 tons, which, together with other grains excluding wheat and corn, currently stands at 2.49 million tons.
As for the corn harvest forecast, analysts at the U.S. Department of Agriculture left it unchanged at 30 million tons this year, compared to 30.9 million tons last year. Corn exports from Ukraine are expected to reach 23 million tons, the same as a month earlier.
As reported, in its May report, the USDA published its first forecast for Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year, estimating the wheat harvest at 23 million tons, exports at 13 million tons, and corn production and exports at 30 million tons and 23 million tons, respectively.
As reported, Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture forecasts the 2026 grain harvest at around 60.4 million tons, which is only 1%, or 0.64 million tons, less than last year. According to preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Economy, the harvest of key crops could amount to about 22.4 million tons of wheat, about 4.7 million tons of barley, and approximately 31.6 million tons of corn.
According to data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2025 increased by 3.6% to 23.34 million tons, the corn harvest by 14.6% to 30.9 million tons, while barley production decreased by 2.4% to 5.2 million tons.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has raised its estimate of the potential 2026 grain and oilseed harvest by 1 million tons—to 83.6 million tons, which is 11.6% higher than the 2025 figure (74.9 million tons)—due to increased yields of corn and sunflower, the UGA press service reported on Monday.
“With such a harvest, exports in the new 2026/2027 season could potentially reach 50.8 million tons (the export estimate for the current season is 42.3 million tons). However, this is an optimistic scenario, the realization of which will be possible only if Ukraine’s logistical problems do not worsen due to Russia’s aggression and its constant bombing of Ukrainian transport infrastructure and energy facilities,” the statement noted.
According to the UGA’s estimate, the wheat harvest in 2026 could reach 22.8 million tons (22.5 million tons in 2025), and its exports in the 2026/2027 marketing year (MY) could reach 17 million tons compared to the expected 13.5 million tons in the current season.
The UGA estimates the barley harvest in 2026 at 5.2 million tons (4.9 million tons in 2025), with likely exports of about 2.2 million tons, compared to 1.6 million tons in the current season.
According to the UGA’s forecast, the corn harvest in 2026 will total 32.1 million tons (31.1 million tons in 2025), and exports could reach 27 million tons compared to 22 million tons in the current season.
“Expectations for this year’s corn harvest are positive thanks to favorable weather conditions so far,” the association explained.
The UGA expects the sunflower harvest in 2026 to reach 13.3 million tons, compared to 11.1 million tons in 2025.
“Traditionally, almost all sunflowers will be processed in Ukraine—13.5 million tons. Exports will not exceed 50,000 tons,” the statement said.
In 2026, the rapeseed harvest, according to UGA forecasts, could reach 3.4 million tons compared to 3.2 million tons in 2025, while exports for the 2026/2027 marketing year may amount to only 1.9 million tons.
This year’s soybean harvest is expected to reach 4.9 million tons, which is less than last year’s 5 million tons, while potential exports are projected at 2.3 million tons compared to 2.9 million tons in the current season.
As reported, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts wheat and corn exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2027 season at 13 million tons and 23 million tons, respectively, which is 0.5 million tons and 1 million tons more than in the current season.
At the same time, the USDA expects wheat production to decline to 23 million tons from 24.1 million tons last year, and corn production to decline to 30 million tons from 30.9 million tons last year.
As of April 20, farmers had sown 1,251.9 thousand hectares with spring grain and leguminous crops, which amounts to 21% of the forecast for 2026, the press service of the Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture reported on Tuesday.
According to оперативе statistics, over the past week farmers sowed 254.9 thousand hectares compared with 168.7 thousand hectares the previous week. The pace of field work increased by 1.5 times, but the overall figures are 15.3% behind last year’s pace, when as of April 25, 2025, 1,478.7 thousand hectares had been sown.
The Ministry of Economy clarified that so far 623.8 thousand hectares of barley have been sown (83% of the plan), peas – 238.3 thousand hectares (87%), wheat – 158.8 thousand hectares (85%) and oats – 117.5 thousand hectares (85%). Corn sowing has intensified and reached 75.7 thousand hectares (2% of the forecast), the area under millet amounts to 1.2 thousand hectares (3%), and buckwheat sowing has started (0.01 thousand hectares). Other spring grain and leguminous crops have been sown on 36.5 thousand hectares (27% of the forecast).
The highest sowing rates for grain and leguminous crops have currently been recorded in Odesa region (168.2 thousand hectares), Ternopil region (96.3 thousand hectares), Mykolaiv region (89.4 thousand hectares) and Poltava region (86.5 thousand hectares).
At the same time, sowing of industrial crops is continuing, with 440.8 thousand hectares already sown. In particular, 293.6 thousand hectares have been allocated for sunflower (6% of the forecast), and 21.8 thousand hectares for soybeans (1%). Sugar beet has been sown on 125.4 thousand hectares, which is 64% of the planned area.
As reported, as of April 25, 2025, 2,000 thousand hectares in Ukraine had been sown with spring grain and leguminous crops. In particular, corn accounted for 705 thousand hectares, barley – 702.1 thousand hectares, wheat – 199.8 thousand hectares, peas – 201.8 thousand hectares, and oats – 154.2 thousand hectares. On the same date last year, 1,236.8 thousand hectares had been sown with sunflower, 187.6 thousand hectares with soybeans, and 228.5 thousand hectares with sugar beet.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, the total area of spring grain and leguminous crops in 2026 will amount to 6.002 mln hectares, of which corn will account for 4.418 mln hectares. Among industrial crops, 5 mln hectares are planned for sunflower, 2.04 mln hectares for soybeans, and 197.2 thousand hectares for sugar beet.
AGRICULTURE, FARMERS, GRAINS, SOWING CAMPAIGN, SPRING SOWING
