The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has lowered its estimate of the potential harvest of grains and oilseeds in 2024 by 2.8 million tons compared to the previous forecast, to 71.8 million tons, the association’s press service reports.
“The current forecast is based on the average weather conditions over the past five years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in spring and summer make adjustments. Another decrease in the harvest forecast for the new season was caused by the hot and dry weather in Ukraine in July this year, which negatively affected the potential yield of late grains and oilseeds,” the report says.
According to experts, under such conditions, exports in the new season 2024/2025 will amount to 41 mln tons, which is 2.5 mln tons less than the previous forecast. Last season, which ended on June 30, according to the UGA, the export of grains and oilseeds amounted to 57.5 mln tons of grains and oilseeds. Thus, the drop in exports compared to the previous season could be more than 16 million tons.
The UGA estimates the wheat harvest in 2024 at 19.8 mln tons (22 mln tons in 2023). Potential exports of wheat in 2024/2025 MY may amount to about 13 mln tonnes, taking into account that at the beginning of the season carry-over stocks amounted to almost 1 mln tonnes.
The UGA pointed out that the consumption of wheat in Ukraine has decreased due to the war and significant outflow of population abroad. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, wheat consumption decreased from 8 mln tons to just over 6 mln tons.
According to the UGA, the barley harvest in 2024 may reach 4.95 mln tonnes, which is 350 thsd tonnes more than the previous estimate (5.8 mln tonnes in 2023), and potential exports in 2024/2025 MY are expected to reach about 2 mln tonnes (last year barley exports amounted to almost 2.5 mln tonnes).
Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season are deteriorating due to the prolonged dry period in a number of regions. The UGA estimates the corn harvest at 23.4 million tons, which is 2.1 million tons lower than the previous estimate and 6.2 million tons less than last year’s harvest of 29.6 million tons. At the same time, potential exports may amount to about 18.5 mln tons (last season, exports amounted to 29.3 mln tons, in particular due to carry-over corn stocks).
The sunflower harvest in 2024 can be expected at 12.8 mln tons, which is 0.9 mln tons lower than the previous estimate (2023 – 14.2 mln tons). Potential exports could reach up to 250 thsd tonnes, while sunflower crushing for vegetable oil could reach 12.5 mln tonnes. Last season, the processing amounted to 13.5 mln tons.
In 2024, the UGA expects the rapeseed harvest to reach 4.3 mln tonnes (4.5 mln tonnes in 2023), while the exports in 2024/2025 MY will be 3.4 mln tonnes (3.7 mln tonnes in the current season).
As for soybeans, despite the fact that farmers have increased the area under the crop, unfavorable weather conditions will not allow to get a bigger harvest due to lower yields, experts believe. According to their estimates, the soybean harvest can be expected in 2024 at 4.8 mln tonnes, which is 0.7 mln tonnes less than the previous estimate (4.9 mln tonnes in 2023). Potential exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 3.5 mln tonnes (last season – almost 3 mln tonnes).
As reported, in 2023, the UGA estimated the harvest at 82.8 mln tons of grains and oilseeds.
Kernel Agro Holding, one of the largest agricultural companies in Ukraine, processed 3.2 million tons of oilseeds in the fourth quarter of the 2023-2024 fiscal year (FY, July-June) and returned to pre-war processing volumes, the company’s press service reported in a preliminary public report.
“This result was achieved thanks to the commissioning of a new oil extraction plant in western Ukraine,” the press service explained on its Facebook page.
According to the report, Kernel transshipped 6.7 million tons of agricultural products through its terminals, including 486 thousand tons for partners.
In fiscal year 2024, the agricultural holding offered its port facilities to Ukrainian farmers for the first time to help increase Ukraine’s agricultural exports. This area will continue to develop, Kernel promised.
“We exported 5.5 million tons of grain, which is 47% more than in the last financial year. This became possible due to stable exports via the Black Sea,” the agricultural holding summarized.
Prior to the war, Kernel was the world’s leading producer of sunflower oil (about 7% of global production) and its exports (about 12%). It is one of the largest producers and sellers of bottled oil in Ukraine. In addition, it is engaged in the cultivation and sale of agricultural products.
In Ukraine, in 2024/25 marketing year (MY, July 2024 – June 2025), the harvest of seeds of major oilseeds will amount to 22.5 mln tonnes, up 3.8% compared to the previous season and higher than the forecast of 21.686 mln tonnes by the State Statistics Service, the industry association Ukroliyaprom said.
According to the industry association’s forecast, sunflower and soybean production is expected to grow this season, while the gross harvest of rapeseed may decline.
The largest increase in 2023/24 MY is expected for soybeans – 5.1 mln tonnes, up 7.5% compared to last year’s figure of 4.743 mln tonnes.
This growth is due to the increase in the planted area by 7.4% to 1.97 mln ha, while the oilseed yield will remain at the level of the previous season and amount to 25.9 c/ha, the experts explained.
According to the analysts’ forecast, the sunflower production in 2024 is expected to reach 13 mln tonnes, up 2% compared to 12.76 mln tonnes in the previous year. The yield of the oilseed will not change and will amount to 24.5 c/ha, while its area will expand to 5.3 mln hectares (+2%).
Ukroliyaprom forecasts the rapeseed harvest at 4.1 mln tonnes, which is 2% lower than in 2023/24 (4.184 mln tonnes). The projected decline in production will be due to a 4.3% decrease in oilseeds acreage to 1.37 mln ha, while rapeseed yield will remain at the level of last year and amount to 29.2 c/ha.
Ukraine in the 2023-2024 marketing year, ending June 30, 2024, exported 57.5 million tons of grains and oilseeds from a harvest of 82.8 million tons, with transitional stocks of about 7 million tons, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) said.
“Last season, the most important factor for Ukrainian grain exports was the opening of the Ukrainian Humanitarian Corridor, which allowed exports by sea from the deep-water ports of Odessa. The second most important factor was the introduction by Ukraine together with international partners of a working mechanism of insurance of ships entering Ukrainian ports, which reduced the cost of exporters and, accordingly, Ukrainian agricultural producers on export logistics”, – said the association.
According to UZA analysts with reference to the information of the State Customs Service, in monetary terms exports of grains and oilseeds in 2023/2024 MY amounted to $10.76 billion, and exports including products from them, including sunflower oil and other oils, cakes and meal, amounted to $17.86 billion.
Wheat exports totaled 18.4 million tons worth $3 billion, with production of about 22 million tons. The top 3 importing countries of Ukrainian wheat included Spain, which purchased 5.899 million tons, Egypt – 1.721 million tons, Indonesia – 1.515 million tons.
Barley Ukraine supplied abroad almost 2.5 million tons for $376 million, with production of 5.8 million tons. The most active buyers were China – 702 thousand tons, Indonesia – 460 thousand tons, Cyprus – 221 thousand tons.
Last season Ukraine exported 29.3 million tons of corn worth $4.7 billion, while last year’s production was 29.6 million tons. Its main buyers were Spain – 6.011 million tons, China – 4.832 million tons, Egypt – 3.874 million tons.
Nearly 3 million tons of soybeans were sold to other countries for the amount of $1.1 billion, with a harvest of 4.9 million tons. The top 3 buyers were Egypt – 956 thousand tons, Turkey – 674 thousand tons, Germany – 235 thousand tons.
Ukraine exported 57.5 mln tonnes of grains and oilseeds in 2023-2024 marketing year, which ended on June 30, 2024, out of the harvest of 82.8 mln tonnes, while the carry-over stocks amounted to about 7 mln tonnes, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) reported.
“Last season, the most important factor for the export of Ukrainian grain was the opening of the Ukrainian Humanitarian Corridor, which allowed exports by sea from the deep-water ports of Odesa region. The second most important factor was the introduction by Ukraine, together with international partners, of a working mechanism for insuring ships entering Ukrainian ports, which reduced the costs of exporters and, accordingly, Ukrainian agricultural producers for export logistics,” the association noted.
According to the UGA analysts, referring to the information of the State Customs Service, in monetary terms, the exports of grains and oilseeds in 2023/2024 MY amounted to $10.76 bln, and exports including products from them, including sunflower oil and other oils, cake and meal – $17.86 bln.
Wheat exports amounted to 18.4 million tons worth $3 billion, with production of about 22 million tons. The top 3 importing countries of Ukrainian wheat were Spain, which purchased 5.899 mln tons, Egypt – 1.721 mln tons, and Indonesia – 1.515 mln tons.
Ukraine exported almost 2.5 mln tons of barley for $376 mln, against the production of 5.8 mln tons. The most active buyers were China – 702 thousand tons, Indonesia – 460 thousand tons, and Cyprus – 221 thousand tons.
Last season, Ukraine exported 29.3 mln tons of corn worth $4.7 bln, compared to last year’s production of 29.6 mln tons. Its main buyers were Spain – 6.011 million tons, China – 4.832 million tons, and Egypt – 3.874 million tons.
Almost 3 mln tons of soybeans were sold to other countries for $1.1 bln, with a harvest of 4.9 mln tons. The top 3 buyers were Egypt – 956 thsd tonnes, Turkey – 674 thsd tonnes, and Germany – 235 thsd tonnes.
Ukraine exported 3.7 mln tons of rapeseed worth $1.4 bln, compared to last year’s production of 4.5 mln tons. The most active buyers were Germany – 1.226 mln tons, Romania – 609 thsd tonnes, and the Netherlands – 420 thsd tonnes.
Ukraine in 2024-2025 marketing year (July-June) can export more than 60 million tons of grain and oilseed crops and products of their processing, which will allow it to remain among the world leaders of agricultural exports, Acting Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Taras Vysotskyy said.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, Ukraine can collect grain crops of the new harvest at the level of about 56 million tons, of which wheat – 21 million tons, barley – about 5 million tons, corn – 28.5 million tons.
Total exports of cereals are forecast at 43 million tons, in particular wheat – 15 million tons, barley – 2.5 million tons, corn – about 25 million tons.
The ministry expects oilseeds production at the level of 22 million tons, in particular rapeseed – 4 million tons, sunflower – about 13 million tons. Ukraine may harvest 5 million tons of soybeans, which will be a record in the history of Ukraine.
Exports of oilseeds and oilseed products are expected to exceed 17 million tons.
“After two years of full-scale war, Ukraine managed to equalize the market balance of production and export of major crops. (…) The current marketing year 2023/2024 Ukraine will end with the final balances of agricultural products at the average level, as it was until 2022. In the next marketing year, agro-exports will be over 60 million tons. And this shows that Ukraine remains a guarantor of world food security”, – summarized Acting Minister of Agro-Politics.
