The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts that in 2025, the loan portfolio of banks will grow by 20–25%, which will allow balancing investments in government bonds, said First Deputy Governor of the NBU Kateryna Rozhkova.
“We expect that in 2025, the loan portfolio will grow at a rate of around 20-25%, which will balance investments in government bonds,” she said during the presentation of the financial stability report on Tuesday.
She noted that the share of the loan portfolio in the structure of bank balance sheets is growing, and the regulator hopes that this trend will continue.
“Based on an analysis of the real sector and corporate balance sheets, we see that in terms of business credit metrics, such as solvency, debt-to-revenue ratio, and debt service-to-income ratio, the vast majority of companies are in good shape,” Rozhkova said.
This indicates that businesses have managed to adapt and recover, thanks in part to support from government programs. As a result, most companies now look attractive to banks as potential borrowers, explained the first deputy head of the NBU.
At the same time, she noted that consumer demand is insufficient for rapid economic growth, and that the willingness of businesses to invest in production currently plays a key role. The state is also a significant source of effective demand, particularly through its defense needs, which fuel the economy and lending.
“Currently, all the conditions that exist in the market today and the banking sector, which can provide credit support, want to do so and have the resources to do so. According to a bank survey, demand for loans from businesses is at around 30% growth,” Rozhkova emphasized.
She noted that the regulator is observing an increase in the share of loans with maturities of one to three years in the loan portfolio of banks, which indicates an increase in the volume of longer-term financing, which is often of an investment nature, particularly with regard to new loans.
As reported, members of the NBU’s Monetary Policy Committee noted that interest rates on business loans have risen but remain at pre-crisis levels, and banks’ loan portfolios continue to grow steadily.
According to the NBU, in May, the volume of loans increased by 1.8%, or by UAH 21 billion, to UAH 1 trillion 186.3 billion, while deposits decreased by 0.4%, or by UAH 10.3 billion, to UAH 2 trillion 804.8 billion.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) announced a tender for voluntary motor insurance (comprehensive motor insurance) on May 13, according to the Prozorro public procurement system. The expected cost of the services is UAH 1.681 million.
The deadline for submitting documents is May 21, 2025. As reported, the winner of a similar tender a year earlier with a budget of UAH 338,200 was IC Guardian.
On May 1, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) announced its intention to conclude an agreement with the European Insurance Alliance insurance company for compulsory motor third-party liability insurance (CMTPL) and accident insurance for drivers (AI), according to the Prozorro public procurement system.
The company’s price offer was UAH 641,587 thousand against the expected cost of purchasing the services – UAH 1.044 million.
The tender was also participated in by insurance companies VUSO, whose offer was 28 kopecks higher, and Guardian Insurance Company – UAH 899,940 thousand.
As reported, SK Guardian was the winner of a similar tender a year earlier.
European Insurance Alliance PJSC has been operating in the Ukrainian insurance market since 1994. It is a member of the MTIBU Audit Commission, a participant in the agreement on direct settlement of losses under compulsory civil liability insurance for owners of land vehicles, and a member of the Nuclear Insurance Pool of Ukraine.
The company offers 30 types of voluntary and compulsory insurance, including property, motor vehicle, liability, and personal insurance.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved its estimate of the electricity deficit in Ukraine this year from 4% to 3% and next year from 2% to 1% due to rapid repairs and development of distributed generation.
“Rapid repairs of shunting generation and energy infrastructure, development of distributed electricity generation and renewable energy capacities against the background of maintaining sustainable electricity imports allow us to improve the estimate of the electricity deficit over the forecast horizon,” the NBU states in its April 2025 Inflation Report, comparing it with the January report.
According to the NBU, the deficit will almost disappear in 2027 (1%).
Thus, according to the report, the impact of energy supply restrictions on real GDP will decrease, and annual electricity imports in 2025-2027 will amount to about $0.5 billion.
As reported, at the end of 2024, the Ministry of Energy reported that the total capacity of distributed gas-fired generation units connected in Ukraine last year amounted to 967 MW, of which 835 MW were commissioned in 2024.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on April 23 announced a tender for compulsory insurance of civil liability of car owners and insurance of drivers against accidents in transport, according to the state procurement system Prozorro.
The expected cost of purchasing the services is UAH 1.044 mln. The deadline for submission of documents is April 30, 2025. The winner of a similar tender a year ago was IC “Guardian”.
The National Bank reduced the sale of foreign currency on the interbank market last week by $221.77 million, or 41.4% – to $314.4 million, according to the regulator’s statistics on its website.
According to it, the National Bank even bought $10 million on the market last week, the last time it was in early March, while in general, since the beginning of the year, the purchase amounted to $33.5 million against $10.24 billion of sales.
Thus, net foreign exchange interventions of the NBU over the past week fell by 43.2% to $304.4m.
The data, which the regulator has managed to make public during this time, indicate a change in the situation on the cash market of currency: for the first time since the beginning of the year, the sale of currency exceeded the purchase. From $19.7 million on Monday, the net balance of sales decreased to $8.3 million on Tuesday, $1.2 million on Wednesday and $3.0 million on Thursday.
The official hryvnia/$1 exchange rate was volatile last week: from 41.3879 UAH/$1 on Monday, it strengthened to 41.1753 UAH/$1 on Wednesday before weakening again to 41.3955 UAH/$1 at the end of the week.
On the cash market, the hryvnia depreciated by 10-14 kopecks over the week as the margin widened: the buying rate went to UAH 40.95/$1, while the selling rate went to UAH 41.10/$1.
As analysts of KYT Group note, in early April the currency market of Ukraine continued to demonstrate relative stability in the dollar segment and noticeable strengthening of the euro: the dollar rate is declining under the influence of external weakness of the U.S. dollar, while the euro rate is growing both due to the global trend and structural demand for the Euro currency in Ukraine.
“In general, the Ukrainian currency market is characterized by growing liquidity, narrowing spreads and decreasing volatility against the dollar, which is evidence of the formation of relative predictability of further exchange rate trajectories,” KYT Group believes.
They noted that in the domestic market, the rates of purchase and sale have come close to the official rate of the NBU: market rates of both purchase and sale of the dollar began to move almost synchronously with the official, without significant deviations and equidistant from the official – +\- 25 kopecks, which reduces market volatility.
“In the short term (2-4 weeks), the dollar exchange rate is likely to move smoothly in the range of 41.10-41.80 UAH/$ with possible adjustments within 20-30 kopecks, associated with situational demand”, – predicted in KYT Group.
In their opinion, the medium-term perspective (2-4 months) provides for the possibility of returning to the range of 41.80-42.50 UAH/$ in case of inflation growth, import activity or pressure on the budget.
