The volume of cash inflows to banks’ teller windows in the first half of 2026 increased by 8.9% compared to the same period in 2025—to 1 trillion 554.8 billion UAH, while the volume of cash disbursements rose by 8.7% to 1 trillion 602.4 billion hryvnias, according to statistics from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
“The increase in cash inflows to bank teller windows was driven by a revival in economic activity starting in the second quarter of this year and sustained consumer demand amid rising household incomes, particularly wages and pensions,” the National Bank noted on its Telegram channel on Monday.
The regulator attributes the rise in hryvnia cash withdrawals from bank teller windows to heightened security risks caused by airstrikes and the destruction of industrial, energy, and residential infrastructure, which sustained public demand for cash.
In the first half of 2026, the largest share of cash withdrawals from bank teller windows, as before, came from customer transactions using payment cards—85.5%, or 1 trillion 369.7 billion hryvnias.
Banks’ purchases of foreign currency from customers accounted for 4.9%, or 78.9 billion UAH; cash replenishments for postal operators accounted for 3.4%, or 54.9 billion UAH; and payments of salaries and scholarships accounted for 2.2%, or 34.6 billion UAH.
The main sources of cash inflows to bank teller windows remained retail sales proceeds—31.4%, or 488 billion UAH—and customer transactions using payment cards—28.0%, or 435.7 billion UAH.
Foreign currency sales accounted for another 15.3%, or 238.1 billion UAH, while revenue from all types of services accounted for 12.2%, or 188.9 billion UAH.
The National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) increase of the monthly limit on non-cash foreign currency purchases by individuals from 50,000 UAH to 200,000 UAH may lead to a short-term rise in demand, but will not have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market, according to bankers surveyed by Interfax-Ukraine.
“In our opinion, there may be a certain surge in demand for non-cash foreign currency purchases in the first few days after the changes take effect,” said Emal Bakhtari, director of the financial instruments sales department at Raiffeisen Bank.
According to him, the proportion of customers who previously found the monthly limit of 50,000 UAH insufficient is relatively small. He suggested that the National Bank would, if necessary, smooth out short-term spikes in demand through currency interventions.
Serhiy Mamedov, Chairman of the Board of Globus Bank, also does not expect a proportional increase in demand following the fourfold increase in the limit. According to him, the limit determines only the maximum possible transaction amount, whereas the public’s purchase of cash foreign currency was not previously restricted by a similar monthly limit.
Currency liberalization in and of itself is unlikely to pose a threat to exchange rate stability at this point, Mamedov believes. Substantial international reserves give the regulator the ability to smooth out excessive exchange rate fluctuations, and the high discount rate should maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated instruments; however, this model depends to a large extent on the regularity of international financial assistance.
Anton Kurinny, a dealer in OTP Bank’s Global Markets Department, also forecasts an increase in demand for foreign currency but does not expect this to have a significant impact on the interbank market, where importers’ needs and the shortfall in export proceeds remain the more significant factors.
According to Kurinnyi, additional demand may also arise in the cash market following the increase in the daily limit for currency withdrawals from 100,000 UAH to 200,000 UAH, since the cash exchange rate hovers close to interbank quotes and is sometimes even lower than them.
Mamedov identified the worsening balance between goods imports and exports as a separate risk. According to the data he cited, in January–July 2026, goods imports totaled $58.1 billion, while exports amounted to $24.1 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of approximately $34 billion.
According to the banker, a further increase in the trade imbalance and problems with maritime logistics could intensify structural demand for foreign currency and the need for NBU interventions, while the dynamics of reserves will also depend on the volume of international financing.
Oleksandr Pecheritsyn, director of the analytical research department at Raiffeisen Bank, assesses the risk of a significant outflow of household savings from hryvnia deposits and domestic government bonds (OVGZ) into foreign currency as limited.
In his view, hryvnia-denominated deposits and domestic government bonds remain more attractive than holding savings in foreign currency cash, and the growth in household investments in domestic government bonds was primarily driven by their higher returns relative to the expected devaluation of the hryvnia.
At the same time, Pecheritsyn suggests that raising the limit on non-cash foreign currency purchases could reduce the volume of so-called “technical” foreign currency deposits, which households opened for three months to subsequently obtain foreign currency.
“If the volume of such deposits declines and banks need foreign currency resources to conduct active operations—particularly lending—interest rates on foreign currency deposits may rise slightly. At the same time, this will not necessarily become a general trend across the entire banking sector,” he noted.
Raising the daily limit on cash foreign currency withdrawals could theoretically also boost public interest in foreign currency deposits; however, according to Pecheritsyn’s assessment, given the population’s average incomes and savings, this effect will not be widespread and will not lead to a significant increase in such deposits.
As previously reported, effective August 11, the NBU increased the monthly limit on the public’s purchase of non-cash foreign currency from 50,000 hryvnias to 200,000 hryvnias and extended it to include the purchase of non-cash bank metals and securities issued by foreign entities.
The regulator also raised the daily limit on cash withdrawals by individuals from foreign currency accounts in Ukraine and abroad from 100,000 hryvnias to 200,000 hryvnias and eased a number of other foreign exchange restrictions for individuals and legal entities.
The National Bank stated that the new package of easing measures will not pose risks to the stability of the foreign exchange market and has already been factored into the updated macroeconomic forecast, which projects an increase in international reserves to nearly $70 billion by 2026.
The National Bank of Ukraine is preparing a new, large-scale foreign exchange liberalization package that, for the first time since the start of the full-scale war, is expected to significantly expand individuals’ opportunities to conduct foreign exchange and financial transactions abroad. NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy made this announcement on August 10. According to him, a significant portion of the consultations with the International Monetary Fund regarding this new phase of liberalization has already been completed, and the National Bank plans to announce the final details once the necessary procedures are finalized.
“We are preparing a currency liberalization package that, for the first time, will have a tangible impact on individuals as well,” said the NBU Governor.
Until now, the main stages of currency liberalization during the war have focused primarily on businesses: the NBU has gradually expanded opportunities for paying for imports, servicing foreign loans, repatriating dividends, and attracting capital from abroad. Transactions by individuals, including money transfers abroad, are part of a later stage of lifting restrictions in the NBU’s strategy.
According to sources in the banking sector, one of the main expected changes will be an increase in the monthly limit on transfers by individuals from foreign currency cards issued by Ukrainian banks to cards abroad, from 100,000 UAH to 200,000 UAH in equivalent value. Sources also note a possible roughly twofold increase in a number of other existing foreign currency limits; however, the NBU has not yet officially published their final parameters.
Currently, the NBU allows transfers from a foreign-currency payment card issued by a Ukrainian bank to another individual’s card abroad of up to 100,000 UAH equivalent per month. Transfers from hryvnia cards directly to cards issued by foreign banks remain prohibited.
For hryvnia cards, there is also a limit on non-cash payments for goods and services abroad of 100,000 UAH equivalent per month. Cash withdrawals abroad from hryvnia accounts are limited to 12,500 UAH equivalent per seven calendar days. There are no general limits of this type for payments with foreign currency cards for ordinary goods and services, although certain restrictions remain in place for some categories of transactions.
Thus, if the changes announced by the banking market are approved as expected, the new package will become one of the most significant relaxations of restrictions directly affecting Ukrainian citizens starting in 2022. Above all, it will simplify support for relatives abroad, the use of funds from Ukrainian accounts during extended stays abroad, and other cross-border transactions by individuals.
At the same time, this new phase of liberalization does not mean the complete abolition of foreign exchange controls.
The NBU maintains a managed floating exchange rate regime and continues to cover the structural foreign exchange deficit in the market through its own interventions. According to the regulator’s strategy, the further lifting of restrictions depends not on a predetermined timeline, but on the state of the foreign exchange market, international reserves, inflation, and other macrofinancial conditions.
The transition to easing restrictions for the general public is of particular importance, as such measures are part of the third stage of currency liberalization in the NBU’s roadmap, alongside foreign investments, freer capital flows, and the expansion of other cross-border financial transactions. At the same time, the NBU may implement certain steps from different stages in parallel, provided that macroeconomic conditions permit.
In January 2026, the NBU had already significantly expanded opportunities for businesses by introducing a so-called “credit limit,” which allows companies to use foreign loans raised after January 1 for a range of transactions, including servicing existing debts and additional repatriation of dividends. In April, the regulator implemented another round of easing measures for certain categories of individuals and companies.
The final amounts of the new limits for individuals, the date they take effect, and the full list of permitted transactions are to be determined by a separate decision of the NBU’s Board. As of the afternoon of August 10, the relevant resolution had not yet been published on the regulator’s official website.
Consumer prices in Ukraine rose by 0.3% in July 2026 compared with June, while annual inflation accelerated to 7.7% from 7.2% a month earlier, according to data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Since the beginning of the year, consumer prices have risen by 6%. In January–July 2026, they were 7.8% higher than in January–July 2025.
The acceleration in annual inflation is partly due to the base effect: in July 2025, prices fell by 0.2%. However, the current rate of 7.7% remains lower than the 8.2% recorded in May.
Core inflation slowed to 0.3% in July from 0.5% in June and 0.7% in May. On an annual basis, it remained at 8.1%.
The trends in individual components of the consumer basket varied significantly. Food and non-alcoholic beverages fell in price by 0.2% over the month, while clothing and footwear fell by 4.8%. At the same time, housing and utilities rose by 1.6%, and transportation by 1.3%.
At the end of July, the NBU raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 from 9.4% to 10%, and its core inflation forecast from 7.2% to 9.2%. The regulator attributes the increase in underlying price pressures to rising business costs for logistics, labor, and energy resources.
Data from the State Statistics Service excludes territories temporarily occupied by Russia and parts of the country where hostilities are ongoing or have taken place.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.1% in the third quarter, 4.2% in the fourth quarter, and 5.2% in the first quarter of next year, according to an updated quarterly forecast published by the National Bank in its April “Inflation Report” on its website.
“The easing of fiscal policy and a significant economic boost resulting from the allocation of part of external financing to the localization of arms production, as well as larger harvests than last year, crops will contribute to a revival of economic activity in the second half of the year,” noted the NBU, which overall revised its economic growth forecast for this year upward to 1.8% from 1.3% in its April “Inflation Report.”
At that time, the National Bank expected GDP to grow by 1.9% in the third quarter of this year, by 1.7% in the fourth quarter, and by 4.7% in the first quarter of next year.
The NBU now expects the consolidated budget deficit (excluding grants in revenue) to rise to 35.2% of GDP by the end of 2026, compared with 24.7% of GDP last year, whereas as recently as April it had forecast a decrease in this figure to 19.2% of GDP.
According to the report, in the second quarter of this year, budget expenditures rose by 32.7% compared to the second quarter of last year—an increase of 0.45 trillion UAH, to 1.81 trillion UAH—while in the first quarter, they remained at last year’s level of 1.25 trillion UAH.
The National Bank emphasized that the fiscal stimulus offsets the negative impact of shelling, which the National Bank estimates at 0.9 percentage points.
According to a preliminary estimate by the State Statistics Service, following a 0.6% decline in the first quarter of this year, GDP increased by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2026, whereas the National Bank had expected growth of 1.7% in its April forecast.
The NBU explained that more substantial economic growth is being hampered by the consequences of Russia’s intensified attacks on logistics infrastructure—particularly the blockage of ports—as well as on the energy sector and business facilities. The decline also deepened significantly in the construction sector (to 7.5% in the second quarter) against the backdrop of a high base of comparison from last year, a shortage of skilled workers, and shifts in the structure of demand amid war and energy shocks: activity shifted away from large residential projects toward private housing and infrastructure restoration.
The National Bank also confirmed its growth forecast for 2027 at 2.8%, but revised its expectations for quarterly growth: while in April it had projected a 2.5% increase in GDP for the second quarter of next year, 2.0% in the third quarter, and 2.5% in the fourth, these figures now stand at 4.3%, 2.4%, and 0.2%, respectively.
The NBU attributes the acceleration of the recovery in the coming years to increased investment in the expansion of production capacity—particularly in the defense industry—further increases in crop yields, gradual stabilization in the energy sector, and sustained consumer demand.
“Accommodative fiscal policy will lead to a positive GDP gap in 2026–2027,” the Inflation Report also notes.
The forecast for the consolidated budget deficit for next year has been raised from 17.7% of GDP to 25.6% of GDP, and for 2028—from 10.9% of GDP to 14.6% of GDP.
According to the report, the downward revision of the GDP growth forecast for 2028 from 3.7% to 3.0% is due to more substantial fiscal consolidation.
As previously reported, according to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 1.8% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023, following a 28.8% decline in 2022—the first year of full-scale Russian aggression.
The National Bank of Ukraine fined “Financial Company Krediplus” LLC 595,000 UAH for violations of financial monitoring regulations.
The regulator identified deficiencies in the company’s internal documents designed to manage the risks of money laundering and terrorist financing, as well as violations of customer due diligence requirements.
In addition, according to the NBU, the financial company did not fully provide the regulator with accurate information and documents in response to its requests, and also violated procedures for preparing statistical reports on financial monitoring.
“FC Krediplus” LLC was registered in May 2016 and is engaged in lending. The company operates in the market under the FinX brand, among others. Its authorized capital amounts to approximately 11.86 million UAH. According to the NBU’s ownership structure data as of January 1, 2026, 100% of the company is owned by Bereg-Group LLC. According to the Unified State Register, the ultimate beneficial owner is Rodion Butko, and the director is Alexander Makedonsky.
