Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced sales of dollars on the interbank market by $234.8 million, or 27.9%, to $607.8 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the data released by the National Bank, last week the negative balance of buying and selling of foreign currency by banks’ legal entities increased from $43.2 million on Monday to $103.1 million on Thursday, which is almost half as much as last week.
A similar situation was observed in the market of foreign exchange transactions of households: while on Saturday-Monday, sales of foreign currency exceeded purchases by $7.6 million, on Thursday it was $10.5 million, while last Thursday this figure reached $27.5 million.
While a week earlier, for the first time in a long time, a negative balance was recorded in the segment of non-cash transactions of households, last week households again sold more non-cash currency than bought it – by $2-5 million daily.
The official hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar strengthened from 41.3895 UAH/$1 to 41.3401 UAH/$1 last week.
The same dynamics was observed in the cash market, where the hryvnia strengthened by 3-5 kopecks last week: buying to about 41.37 UAH/$1, and selling to about 41.45 UAH/$1.
“The Ukrainian currency market in terms of the dollar is in a calm phase – international factors do not provide drivers for drastic changes, while dosed interventions and liberalization of the NBU maintain low volatility and market controllability,” experts of KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market, said.
According to their estimates, domestic demand is stable without any hype or accumulative drivers, importers act in a planned manner without provoking abnormal outbursts, and there are fewer or no “insurance” margins of market operators in the hryvnia-dollar quotes.
For the next 1-3 weeks, KYT Group expects the exchange rate to remain in the basic range of UAH 41.30-41.85/$1: a break below UAH 41.20/$1 is unlikely without a strong external catalyst, but short impulses are possible based on data from the US or news about external financing for Ukraine.
In the medium term, for 2-3 months, the company expects the exchange rate to be 41.50-42.20 UAH/$1 and adds that the expectation of the September Fed decision with a likely but far from guaranteed rate cut shifts expectations for quotes to the lower end of the corridor. At the same time, autumn budget payments and energy imports may push quotes up, but the start of the export season and its success is a strong stabilizing factor.
“If the scenario of increased uncertainty (security, economic indicators, political shifts) or deterioration of external revenues is realized, short exits to 42.30-42.40/$1 are likely,” KYT Group experts believe.
The National Bank of Ukraine fined Industrialbank 400,000 hryvnia and six non-bank financial institutions for violating currency legislation in July 2025 for violating legislation in the field of preventing and combating the legalization (laundering) of proceeds from crime, financing terrorism, and financing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (AML/CFT). In July 2025, the NBU fined Industrialbank UAH 400,000 and six non-bank financial institutions, and issued a warning to Ukrposhta.
As noted in a release on the central bank’s website, the largest fine—UAH 9,632,850—was imposed on Lineura Ukraine LLC (TM Credit 7), which ranked sixth among non-bank financial institutions in the market with income from financial services of UAH 470.7 million in the first quarter of this year.
The fine imposed on FC Mare LLC amounted to UAH 595 thousand, and on FC Midl LLC, which recently had its license revoked by the National Bank, UAH 340 thousand.
In addition, ProfitGuide LLC was fined UAH 170,000, and Miloan LLC was fined UAH 51,000.
As for Ukrposhta, it received a written warning for violating requirements regarding the improper development and implementation of internal documents in the field of AML/CFT, as well as the lack of procedures sufficient to ensure effective risk management.
As reported on Friday by Forbes Ukraine, the National Bank notified the government of the need to recapitalize Ukrposhta by approximately UAH 820 million, without which the national postal operator will not only be unable to launch a postal bank, but may also lose its license to provide financial services.
In July, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its sales of foreign currency on the interbank market by $873.6 million, or 30.9%, to $3.69 billion, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the statistics, the National Bank’s purchases of foreign currency in July fell to $0.83 million from $1.2 million in June, and last week the NBU’s foreign exchange interventions decreased by $171.9 million, or 21.2%, to $639.6 million compared to the previous week.
In July, the official hryvnia to dollar exchange rate strengthened from 41.7788 UAH/$1 to 41.7662 UAH/$1.
In the cash market, the hryvnia exchange rate strengthened by almost 13 kopecks over the month: buying at around 41.48 UAH/$1, selling at 41.58 UAH/$1.
“In July, the dollar to hryvnia exchange rate continued to demonstrate high stability with insignificant intraday volatility that did not turn into trend movements,” said experts from KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market.
They point out that the exchange rate fluctuations do not exceed 0.2%, which indicates an extremely restrained market reaction – especially given the announcement of important macroeconomic signals.
In their opinion, in the short term (one to three weeks), the corridor of 41.40-42.10 UAH/$ will remain in place in the absence of external shocks or surges in demand from importers.
KYT Group analysts expect that in the medium term (up to three months) the exchange rate may gradually shift to 42.30-42.80 UAH/$ in the face of the traditional growth in budget expenditures in the second half of the year, increased imports, or the implementation of the expected September Fed rate cut, which will lead to a correction of the dollar.
In the long term (over six months), experts predict a controlled devaluation trend. According to the baseline scenario, the exchange rate is expected to be in the range of UAH 43.00-44.50/$, provided that the current level of international support, stable reserves, and no unexpected shocks, especially those of a non-economic nature, are maintained.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) records cases of unlicensed activity in the market of non-banking financial services, in particular the exchange of cryptocurrencies for currency, transfer of funds and provision of loans and will strengthen its supervision over this.
“We are systematically working to limit any opportunities to use banking and payment infrastructure to serve the shadow sector of the economy(…) In the future we will intensify activities,” NBU head Andriy Pyshnyy said on his Facebook.
He stressed that detenization will contribute to the formation of a sustainable investment resource for the economy, and also reported the launch of a new area of work of the NBU – identification of unlicensed activities in the market of non-banking financial services and payment market.
“Unfortunately, we see that outside the legal framework of Ukraine and the appropriate supervision of the NBU citizens are offered services that have signs of financial: transfer and disbursement of funds, granting loans, exchange of crypto for currency”, – wrote Pyshnyy.
The head of the NBU noted that the goal is not only to identify unauthorized market participants, but also to return them to the legal field or initiate prosecution.
As reported, the National Bank continues to investigate the work of companies that may provide financial services without appropriate licenses, these are “Exchange24”, “X-Change”, “Liberty Finance” (“KYT GROUP”), “Tsarsky.io”, ‘FinMobile’ and “Trustee Plus”.
The National Bank of Ukraine has fined SK Persha (Kyiv) UAH 2.557 million for violating consumer protection laws for financial services, as defined by the Civil Code of Ukraine and the laws “On Electronic Commerce,” “On Insurance,” and “On Financial Services and Financial Companies.” According to the NBU website, this decision was made by the Committee for Supervision and Regulation of Non-Bank Financial Services Markets on July 28, 2025, following a scheduled inspection of the company.
In addition, the insurer was fined UAH 320,000 for violating the requirements of the Rules for the preparation and submission of reports by participants in the non-bank financial services market to the NBU.
SK Persha received a written warning about the violation of the requirements of: the Law “On Compulsory Insurance of Civil Liability of Owners of Land Vehicles,” the NBU Resolution “On the Regulation of the Activities of Participants in the Non-Bank Financial Services Market, Non-Bank Financial Groups, Participants in the Payment Market, Collection Companies, and Legal Entities Licensed to Provide Cash Collection Services to Banks” (as amended), as well as the provisions on insurance secrecy and the specifics of concluding insurance contracts with consumers.
It is noted that IC Persha is obliged to pay the fines within one month from the date of entry into force of the decision and to eliminate the violations set out in the written warning by November 28, 2025.
Persha Insurance Company has been operating in the Ukrainian insurance market since 2001. The company specializes in motor insurance. The company is a member of the MTIBU, the League of Insurance Organizations of Ukraine, and the National Insurer of International Road Transport Documents (TIR).
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revoked the license of FC “Fraser” (Kyiv) to operate as a financial company providing funds and bank metals on credit and factoring, according to the NBU website. This decision was made by the Committee for Supervision and Regulation of Non-Bank Financial Services Markets on July 7, 2025.
According to information, in June of this year, the NBU took measures to conduct a scheduled inspection of the aforementioned financial company. When attempting to carry out the inspection, it was established that Frazier FC was not located at the address specified in the Unified State Register of Legal Entities, Individual Entrepreneurs, and Public Organizations. This made it impossible to conduct the inspection and is grounds for revoking the financial company’s license.
The information emphasizes that, as of July 8, 2025, FC “Fraser” is not authorized to provide financial services (in particular, to conclude new contracts, extend the term of existing contracts, and increase the amount of obligations under them).
FC “Fraser” was registered in March 2018. Its authorized capital is UAH 6.5 million.
