The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has strengthened the official hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar by 12 kopecks after the official hryvnia/US dollar exchange rate rose by 8 kopecks on Thursday. – to 41.4313 UAH/$1, according to data on the regulator’s website.
“The dollar exchange rate is expected to remain within the range of 41.50-42.20 UAH/$1. The main factors that will influence the market will be the NBU’s decision on the discount rate on March 6 and the US Fed policy,” analysts at currency exchange market operator KYT Group shared their expectations for the coming weeks in their February review.
In their opinion, the hryvnia may gradually weaken in spring, in particular, if the foreign trade deficit grows. Analysts forecast an average corridor for the U.S. dollar in the range of UAH 42.50-44.00/$1.
“The main risks remain possible delays in international financial assistance and the growth of the budget deficit,” KYT Group said.
The hryvnia-US dollar exchange rate will be at 44.50-45.50 UAH/$1 by the end of the year, experts believe.
The NBU set the reference rate at 41.4341 UAH/$1 at 12:00 Friday against 41.5274 UAH/$1 on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the dollar in the cash market has fallen in price today: when buying its rate decreased by 3 copecks, to 41.53 UAH/$1, and when selling – by 1 copeck, to 41.64 UAH/$1.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers has set the average annual indicator of the official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar in the state budget of 2025 at the level of UAH 45/$1.
In the 2024 budget, the government budgeted an annual average of 40.7 UAH/$1, and at the end of the year – 42.1 UAH/$1. The hryvnia weakened by 10.6% or UAH 4.02 to UAH 42.0390/$1 at the official exchange rate last year.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of February 1, 2025, according to preliminary data, amounted to $43 billion 3.1 million, in January they decreased by 1.8%, or $785 million, and net international reserves (NIR) – by $0.79 billion, or 2.7% – to $28.313 billion.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1051560.html
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has strengthened the official hryvnia exchange rate against the U.S. dollar by 17 kopecks on Friday, after the official hryvnia exchange rate was raised by another 7 kopecks at the end of trading on Monday – to 41.5554 UAH/$1, according to the data on the regulator’s website.
The NBU set the reference rate at 41.5959 UAH/$1 at 12:00 p.m. Monday against 41.6644 UAH/$1 on Friday.
“The dollar exchange rate may fluctuate in the range of 41.8-42.5 UAH/$1. The NBU continues to actively restrain sharp fluctuations, as evidenced by the sale of currency from reserves, and large inflationary risks are not expected in the coming month,” analysts at currency exchange market operator KYT Group shared their expectations for the coming weeks in a February review.
However, among the current risks they name further growth of dollar rate in case of change of policy of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), or sharp fluctuations on external markets, as well as the probability of short-term “jumps” of the rate, as a response to any news about the delay of international aid.
Analysts expect a gradual weakening of the hryvnia to 44 UAH/$1 during the first half of the year, which may be due to increased import purchases in the spring, worsening inflation expectations, and as a consequence, an accelerated weakening of the national currency.
Among other factors of such a forecast is a greater demand for currency in Ukraine due to the expected transition of the Federal Reserve System to a softer interest rate policy. Additional risks, according to KYT Group experts, may be the deterioration of the economic situation, or a shortage of financial aid.
“If the current macroeconomic picture persists, the dollar exchange rate may reach UAH 45/$1 before the end of the year, although this scenario depends entirely on the success of the government’s economic policy and the stability and sufficiency of the inflow of external financing,” the analysts summarized.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers has set the annual average of the official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the U.S. dollar in the state budget of 2025 at the level of 45 UAH/$1.
In the 2024 budget, the government budgeted an annual average of 40.7 UAH/$1, and at the end of the year – 42.1 UAH/$1. The hryvnia weakened by 10.6%, or by UAH 4.02 to UAH 42.0390/$1 at the official exchange rate last year.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of February 1, 2025, according to preliminary data, amounted to $43 billion 3.1 million, in January they decreased by 1.8%, or $785 million, and net international reserves (NIR) – by $0.79 billion, or 2.7% – to $28.313 billion.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1047722.html
This week, the National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) interventions on the interbank market rose to a record high since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine – up to $1 billion 625.9 million, according to the regulator’s statistics.
According to the statistics, the central bank increased sales of foreign currency by 14.7% over the previous week without buying currency.
According to the data published by the central bank during this time, the negative balance between the volume of currency purchases by the population and the volume of its sales narrowed from $66.07 million to $61.54 million.
Since the beginning of December, the NBU’s interventions have already reached $4.90 billion, which is also a record high since at least the beginning of 2012. The previous record of $3.96 billion was set in June 2022.
In total, since the beginning of 2024, the amount of foreign currency sold by the regulator amounted to $34 billion 568.5 million, and $126 million was purchased. In 2023, the NBU sold $28 billion 829.7 million worth of foreign currency and bought back $219.9 million.
The official hryvnia exchange rate fell by 7 kopecks to 41.9403 UAH/$1 over the week, while the cash exchange rate strengthened by 16 kopecks both when buying to 42.10 UAH/$1 and selling to 42.15 UAH/$1.
In general, since the beginning of 2024, the dollar has risen in price by 10.4%, or UAH 3.93, at the official exchange rate, and since the National Bank switched to managed flexibility on October 3, 2023, by 14.7%, or UAH 5.37.
As reported, Ukraine’s international reserves in November 2024 increased by $3.344 billion, or 9.1%, and as of December 1, according to preliminary data from the central bank, amounted to $39.925 billion, while net international reserves (NIR) increased by $3.5 billion, or 15.6%, to $25 billion 939 million.
Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) interventions in the interbank market jumped to a record high for this year and last year – $1 billion 417.4 million, the second highest figure since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine after $1 billion 424.1 million in May 2022, according to the regulator’s statistics.
According to the statistics, the central bank increased sales of foreign currency by 31.8% compared to the previous week, to $1 billion 417.6 million. At the same time, purchases remained at a meager level, but doubled over the week to $0.2 million.
In total, since the beginning of 2024, the volume of foreign currency sold by the regulator amounted to $32 billion 942.6 million, while the volume of foreign currency purchased amounted to $126 million. Over the same period in 2023, the NBU sold $27 billion 937.1 million worth of foreign currency and bought back $218.9 million.
According to the data published by the central bank during this time, the negative balance between the volume of foreign currency purchases by the population and the volume of its sales narrowed from $50.92 million to $48.52 million.
The official hryvnia exchange rate dropped by 27 kopecks to 41.8761 UAH/$1 over the week, while the cash exchange rate weakened by 32 kopecks when buying to 42.25 UAH/$1 and by 37 kopecks when selling to 42.33 UAH/$1.
Over the past month, the official hryvnia exchange rate fell by 0.9%, or 37 kopecks.
In general, since the beginning of 2024, the dollar has risen in price by 10.2%, or UAH 3.87, at the official exchange rate, and since the National Bank switched to managed flexibility on October 3, 2023, by 14.5%, or UAH 5.30.
As reported, Ukraine’s international reserves in November 2024 increased by $3.344 billion, or 9.1%, and as of December 1, according to preliminary data from the central bank, amounted to $39.925 billion, while net international reserves (NIR) increased by $3.5 billion, or 15.6%, to $25 billion 939 million.
In November, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) fined state-owned PrivatBank, Alliance Bank and Asvobank (all based in Kyiv) for violating the anti-money laundering laws for a total of UAH 27.5 million, according to a press release from the regulator. According to the release, Privat was fined UAH 10 million, Alliance – UAH 15.1 million, and Asvibank – UAH 2.5 million.
As reported with reference to market participants, Ukrainian banks are planning to sign a joint memorandum next week, which provides for the introduction of unified market practices and approaches to customer due diligence and monitoring of financial transactions on customer accounts.
According to them, the memorandum is expected to provide for a gradual reduction of the monthly transaction limit, after which, in the absence of verified income, enhanced financial monitoring will be carried out.
The National Bank of Ukraine on August 23 revoked licenses and excluded from the State Register of Financial Institutions ODO IC Varto (Kiev) and PJSC ASK Dnister (Lviv), according to the regulator’s website.
The regulator granted permission to exit the market by fulfilling the insurance portfolio to the mentioned companies on August 6 and July 17, having agreed on the exit plan.
According to the statements, for 2023, the insurance portfolio of PJSC ASK Dnister was formed from payments on insurance of land transport (except railway) – 91.6%, property insurance against fire and other risks – 6%, other types – 2.4%.
The volume of insurance premiums of the company in the mentioned period has amounted to UAH 10,010 mln, formed insurance reserves – UAH 4,987 mln, at the same time the company has paid UAH 6,109 mln of indemnities. Its share on insurance premiums in the market makes 0,01%.
The insurance portfolio of ALC IC Varto was formed at the expense of payments under health insurance contracts – 100%.
The volume of insurance premiums of the company in the specified period has amounted to UAH 29,594 mln, formed insurance reserves – UAH 3,007 mln. The volume of paid indemnities has been fixed at the level of UAH 15,422 mln. The company occupied 0,07% of the insurance services market.
