Housing supply in Ukraine remains limited due to a lack of funding sources for developers and the effects of shelling, according to the NBU’s financial stability report for December 2025.
According to the regulator, the area of housing commissioned in the first half of 2025 corresponds to the figure for the same period last year, but the share of apartments in this structure has decreased. According to the NBU, the supply is mainly replenished by the completion of long-started residential complexes, while new projects are launched extremely rarely and mainly in the western regions.
Separately, the NBU emphasizes the impact of air strikes: in the first nine months of 2025, more than twice as many homes were damaged by shelling than in the same period last year.
Activity in the housing market in Ukraine has remained virtually unchanged for about a year and a half, with one of the key restraining factors being the mismatch between the type of housing most often put up for sale and what buyers are looking for, according to the National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) financial stability report for December 2025.
The regulator notes that the number of housing purchase and sale transactions in the first nine months of 2025 was only 7% higher than in the same period last year. According to the NBU’s assessment, advertisements more often feature large and new apartments, which are more expensive, while buyers often focus on more affordable options.
The NBU also indicates that the market is most active in Kyiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions, which account for 39% of transactions in the first three quarters of 2025. Two-thirds of transactions involve apartments; the average area of an apartment purchased is 48 square meters, and that of a house is 70 square meters. The median age of purchased housing in Ukraine is estimated at 45 years, and in Kyiv at 20 years.
Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced sales of dollars on the interbank market by $198.3 million, or 18.1%, to $895.3 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the NBU, in the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of buying and selling foreign currency by legal entities decreased to $96.0 million from $100.2 million in the same period a week earlier and totaled $384.1 million.
The negative balance on the FX market for households increased to $43.6 million from $30.9 million the week before last, and on all days, sales of non-cash foreign currency exceeded purchases.
The official hryvnia/dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 42.0567 UAH/$1, weakened to 42.2812 UAH/$1 over three days, but ended the week at 42.2721 UAH/$1.
On the cash market, the dollar exchange rate last week followed the trajectory of the official rate, and in general, the dollar rose by about 17 kopecks over the week: buying – to 42.12 UAH/$1, and selling – to 42.49 UAH/$1.
At the same time, due to the rise in the euro against the dollar in the global market after the Fed’s decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps), the hryvnia fell more significantly against the euro last week. Thus, the official exchange rate dropped to 49.4678 UAH/$1 from 48.9961 UAH/$1 a week earlier.
“Last week, the currency deficit remained high without any significant changes compared to the first week of December. Despite this, the NBU slightly reduced its interventions, which hints at a temporary reduction of imbalances in the interbank market,” commented the ICU investment group.
According to its experts, the NBU is concerned about the uncertain prospects for international support next year, as there is no final decision on the EU’s reparations loan yet, so the NBU’s future policy will depend on the EU’s decision on the reparations loan.
“In our opinion, it will be positive. Therefore, we expect the NBU to continue to adhere to a conservative exchange rate policy, allowing only a moderate depreciation of the hryvnia both by the end of this year and throughout 2026,” ICU believes.
Analysts of KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market (Liberty Finance LLC), noted that in December the hryvnia was supported by several important factors, one of the most important being the increase in international reserves to a new historical high of $54.75 billion.
“So far, the situation is such that the hryvnia should not experience any sharp jumps, but in the future (as early as 2026), the hryvnia exchange rate will be under pressure from a number of factors, including, in particular, possible difficulties with the receipt of foreign aid (and a decrease in the amount of such aid),” the company said.
According to their short-term forecast for one to two weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate will remain in the basic range of 42.15-42.50 UAH/$1 with possible multidirectional fluctuations, while in the medium term, for two to three months, KYT Group expects the exchange rate to be 42.25-42.95 UAH/$1.
“In Ukraine, the hryvnia will be influenced by several key factors: the continuation of hostilities, the difficult situation in the energy sector, the decline in economic activity, and the stability of financial assistance from creditors and partners,” the company said, adding that the long-term realistic benchmark is 43.4-44.90 UAH/$1 by mid-2026.
As for the euro, according to the company’s experts, if the Fed cuts the rate by 25 bps again in January, the euro will strengthen more actively, and its fluctuations in the Ukrainian market may reach the level of 50.20-53.20 UAH/€1.
Source: https://bank.gov.ua/ua/markets
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1128490.html
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) fined FINACO Financial Company LLC (Kyiv) UAH 1.28 million for violating the requirements of the law on the prevention and counteraction of money laundering and financial monitoring.
According to a statement on the regulator’s website, the fine is related to the improper implementation of internal documents on AML/CFT issues, shortcomings in the work of the responsible employee, failure to provide reports and documents upon request by the NBU, violation of the risk-based approach, improper verification of clients, as well as violation of the procedure for preparing reports and submitting a list of clients. A separate violation of the established procedure for notifying changes in information was noted.
Along with this, in November 2025, the NBU applied measures of influence to other market participants, including fining Pivdenny Bank UAH 18.5 million, Lviv Bank UAH 200,000, and FC ATLANA LLC UAH 595,000.
The total amount of fines for the month was UAH 20.57 million.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) fined Pivdenny Bank (Odesa) a total of UAH 18.5 million for violations of legislation in the field of preventing and combating money laundering (AML/CFT) and currency legislation.
According to a statement on the regulator’s website, the bank must pay UAH 17.5 million in fines for improper application of a risk-based approach, improper verification of customers, shortcomings in enhanced verification of high-risk customers, and violation of the procedure for providing information in response to NBU requests.
Separately, Pivdenny Bank was fined UAH 1 million for violating currency supervision requirements, in particular for improper analysis of currency transaction documents and failure to identify currency transaction indicators.
In addition, the NBU issued two written warnings to the bank: for deficiencies in internal documents on AML/CFT and risk management, as well as for errors in statistical reporting on currency transactions.
As reported, in November 2025, the NBU applied sanctions to two banks and two non-bank financial institutions, including fines totaling UAH 20.57 million.
The number of insurance companies in Ukraine in October 2025 decreased by one. At the end of the month, 49 risk insurers and 10 life insurance companies, as well as the Export Credit Agency with special status were operating in the market, according to the website of the National Bank of Ukraine.
According to the NBU, the number of insurance and/or reinsurance brokers has not changed – 45. In October, the regulator received 55 inquiries regarding registration and licensing actions of insurers.
In general, the number of non-banking financial market participants for the month decreased to 787 from 791. In the non-banking market, there were 417 financial companies (there were 418), 102 pawnshops (there were 104), 88 credit unions, one lessor and 74 collection companies. The number of non-banking financial groups increased by one – to 42, banking groups unchanged – 16.
