In February, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its interventions in the interbank market by $547.6 million, or 15.5%, to $2 billion 990.5 million, while the official hryvnia-dollar exchange rate fell by 0.8%, or 36 kopecks.
At the same time, in the last week of February, the National Bank increased its sales of dollars on the interbank market by $148.3 million, or 22.4%, to $809.5 million compared to the previous week, while the hryvnia strengthened by almost 0.2%, or 7 kopecks.
According to data from the National Bank, during the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of currency purchases and sales by legal entities increased to $117.9 million from $79.3 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling $471.4 million.
On the currency exchange market for the population, the negative balance for Saturday-Thursday also increased to $17.3 million from $16.4 million the week before, with non-cash currency sales exceeding purchases every day.
The official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 43.2747 UAH/$1, ended the week stronger at 43.2081 UAH/$1.
The dollar exchange rate on the cash market also did not change significantly last week: as of February 26, the purchase rate was around 42.92 UAH/$1, and the sale rate was around 43.30 UAH/$1.
Analysts at KYT Group, a major player in the cash currency exchange market (Liberty Finance LLC), note that at the end of February, the spread between the buying and selling rates at bank cash desks and exchange offices is gradually narrowing and stands at around 0.4–0.5 UAH/$.
In their opinion, at the end of February, currency fluctuations were influenced not only by official reports on the labor market and inflation in the US and market expectations of the March 17-18 decision on the key rate, but also by US President Donald Trump’s speech to Congress on February 24: he praised his economic achievements and criticized the Supreme Court for its decision against his tariff policy, calling tariff decisions a key driver of the “economic turnaround.”
“In general, analysts do not expect the dollar to fall sharply in the near future, as the latest statistics indicate good economic prospects, and the majority forecast of an unchanged rate in March should support the dollar’s position,” the company believes.
In the domestic context, KYT Group draws attention to the gradual devaluation of the hryvnia throughout February and the role of the NBU, which maintains the balance of supply and demand through regular interventions, as well as news about international support for Ukraine and risks related to the energy sector.
According to their forecasts, in the short term (1–2 weeks), the base range of the dollar exchange rate will be 43.3–43.8 UAH/$1, with a probable tendency towards 43.5–43.6 UAH/$1, in the medium term (2–3 months) – 43.60–44.60 UAH/$1, and in the long term (6+ months) the devaluation trend will continue with a benchmark of 43.6–45.05 UAH/$1.
One of the most telling factors in the annual dynamics of complaints against insurers received by the National Bank of Ukraine in 2025 was a significant decrease in the percentage of actual violations of the law among the total number of complaints (17.9% versus 30% in 2024).
“This indicates that the lion’s share of complaints is due not to unlawful actions by insurers, but to communication problems,” concluded experts from the Insurance Business Association (IBA), based on the NBU’s report on handling complaints from financial services consumers in 2025.
According to the ASB press release, consumers often do not fully understand the terms of the contract due to the complexity of the wording or insufficient explanation from insurers when concluding the agreement. Formalities in settlement and poor explanations of payment calculation algorithms (e.g., depreciation accounting, according to the law) create a false impression of a violation of rights, even though the insurer is acting within the law.
In addition, according to the report, in 2025, the NBU processed a total of 28,440 thousand written appeals, of which 1,473 thousand were related to the activities of insurers. Among the key issues that concerned customers were non-payment of insurance compensation (716 complaints) and incomplete payment (508 complaints).
“The analysis of the data indicates the stability of the insurance sector and a significant improvement in the quality of insurance claims settlement, despite the challenges of wartime,” the ASB emphasizes.
According to the association’s CEO, Vyacheslav Chernyakhovsky, the 2025 figures demonstrate the phenomenal ability of Ukrainian insurance to raise customer service standards even during wartime. Considering that insurance companies (excluding health insurance payments) made more than 540,000 payments during the year, the complaint rate was 0.25%.
“This is significantly better than in the markets of the world’s leading countries, where this indicator is usually 0.5-1%. Year after year, insurers confirm their status as the most customer-oriented segment of the financial market,” he emphasized.
According to Chernyakhovsky, particularly noticeable progress has been made in the field of compulsory civil liability insurance for owners of land vehicles (OSCPV). Thanks to the introduction in 2025 of a new law that replaced controversial “expertise” payments with direct compensation through repair work at service stations, the number of complaints has decreased significantly. With 150,900 payments made under CMTPL, the Motor (Transport) Insurance Bureau of Ukraine received only 478 complaints, compared to 740 in 2024.
The National Bank of Ukraine has increased the deadline for settlements on agricultural and specialized equipment export transactions carried out from March 1, 2026, from 180 to 270 days.
This applies to goods classified under UKT VED codes 8424, 8428, 8432, and 8716.
The NBU specifies that the decision was made following consultations with the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture and taking into account the government’s proposals (Cabinet of Ministers Order No. 573-r of June 21, 2024).
The changes were approved by NBU Board Resolution No. 18 dated February 26, 2026, which comes into force on February 28, 2026.
The Ministry of Economy believes that extending the deadline “from 180 to 270 calendar days” will help exporters avoid the risks of reduced supplies due to long production cycles and the specifics of fulfilling foreign economic contracts, as well as support the continuity of contracts and the inflow of foreign currency earnings.
AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY, EXPORTS, foreign currency earnings, NBU, REGULATION
The state-owned Oschadbank (Kyiv) reported that, according to official statistics from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) as of January 1, 2026, it ranked first among Ukrainian banks in terms of net loan portfolio to legal entities.
“Oschadbank continues to hold the lead in business financing for the second year… At the beginning of 2026, we also ranked first in terms of total loan portfolio, providing businesses with financing of more than UAH 122 billion,” said Yuriy Katsion, Chairman of the Board of Oschadbank.
According to NBU statistics, Oschadbank’s net loan portfolio amounted to almost UAH 101.6 billion, which is 13% of the market, and grew by more than UAH 11.5 billion, or 12.9%, over the year. Separately, it is noted that the financial institution became the first in terms of the total volume of the loan portfolio of legal entities without accrued interest and deduction of reserves.
According to Oschadbank, 33% of the net loan portfolio is directed towards financing energy projects and providing energy resources, almost 25% towards the agro-industrial complex and food processing, and 8.4% towards supporting the country’s defense capabilities.
In addition, the volume of funds of legal entities attracted by the bank at the beginning of 2026 amounted to UAH 212 billion in equivalent (11% of the market) and almost UAH 180 billion (13%) in national currency. According to the bank, the business portfolio grew by more than UAH 49 billion over the year.
At the end of 2025, the corporate banking segment showed growth: the volume of business funds increased by 17.3% year-on-year, and lending by 30.1%.
According to the National Bank, as of early January 2026, Oschadbank, with total assets of UAH 514.7 billion (12.9% of the total), ranked second among 60 banks in Ukraine in terms of this indicator.
In its January inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine increased its estimate for the grain and legume harvest in 2025 to 63.5 million tons from 61.5 million tons in its October report, while lowering its estimate for the oilseed harvest to 18.6 million tons from 19.3 million tons.
“The estimate for the oilseed harvest in 2025 has been revised downward by 0.7 million tons due to a slightly lower-than-expected soybean harvest and the inability to harvest part of the sunflower crop due to unfavorable weather conditions and the complex security situation in the regions where the crop is grown,” the document says.
This is the second such revision of estimates by the NBU: in last year’s July inflation report, it expected a grain harvest of 57.9 million tons and oilseeds of 21.0 million tons. In 2024, their harvest amounted to 56.2 million tons and 21.3 million tons, respectively.
The National Bank specified, with reference to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, that as of the end of 2025, 89% of corn and 95% of grain and legume crops had been harvested. At the same time, thanks to significantly higher corn yields, the total harvest of grains and legumes exceeded the previous year’s figure: according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, by 7.4% or 3% when compared with the final data from the State Statistics Service.
As for the 2026 harvest, the NBU maintained its forecast for grains at 62.9 million tons and lowered its forecast for oilseeds from 21.4 million tons to 20.9 million tons.
“In 2026–2027, the production volumes of grains and legumes (62.9 million tons and 63.5 million tons, respectively) will remain close to the current level and will grow more significantly in 2028 (65.0 million tons). Oilseed production will grow moderately in 2026–2028 (to 22 million tons at the end of the forecast period) amid a gradual improvement in productivity in the industry, but it will be held back by climate change in the southern regions, exacerbated by the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, as well as security risks,” according to the National Bank.
At the same time, the NBU continues to assume that livestock farming will continue to make a negative contribution to the added value of agriculture due to the expected reduction in livestock numbers and pressure from production costs. However, this contribution will be less than previously expected due to the growth of poultry farming and the active recovery of pig farming after significant losses in 2024, according to the Inflation Report.
Despite the increase in harvest in 2025 compared to 2024, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, freight transportation for export in the fourth quarter of last year decreased by 23% y/y (compared to 34% y/y in the third quarter), primarily due to a further decline in maritime transport by 22% y/y (compared to 30% y/y in the third quarter).
As specified by the National Bank, rail transport decreased by 28% y/y (compared to 58% y/y in the third quarter), and road transport decreased by 42% y/y (compared to 53% y/y in the third quarter).
According to the State Statistics Service, the decline in freight turnover accelerated to 18% y/y on average in Q4 from 13% in Q3. Passenger turnover growth slowed to 0% y/y on average in Q4 (compared to an average growth of 7% in Q3).
In January 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced foreign exchange interventions by $14 million, or 0.4%, compared to January last year, to $3 billion 375.5 million, while the official hryvnia exchange rate depreciated against the dollar by 2.5%, or UAH 1.2.
At the same time, in the last week of January, the NBU reduced dollar sales on the interbank market by $202.1 million, or 19%, to $859.5 million.
According to the National Bank, in the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of buying and selling foreign currency by legal entities decreased to $95.5 million from $137.6 million in the same period a week earlier and totaled $381.8 million.
The negative balance in the market of foreign exchange transactions of households for Saturday-Thursday also decreased to $34.0 million from $36.4 million the week before last, with sales of non-cash currency exceeding purchases on all days.
The official hryvnia/dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 43.1391 UAH/$1, strengthened to 42.7689 UAH/$1 over three days and ended the week at 42.8483 UAH/$1.
In the cash market, the dollar’s exchange rate last week followed the trajectory of the official rate. In total, the dollar fell by about 27 kopecks during this period: buying – to 42.70 UAH/$1, selling – to 43.07 UAH/$1.
According to analysts of KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market (Liberty Finance LLC), the key event on the international market in the second half of January was the Fed meeting: the regulator, as expected by the markets, left the base rate unchanged, actually taking a break after three consecutive cuts in 2025.
Against this backdrop, the dollar weakened against the euro throughout the month (EUR/USD reached 1.2038, followed by a pullback), while US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric pushed investors to defensive assets, which supported the euro.
In the domestic market, analysts believe that the NBU will continue its policy of managed exchange rate flexibility, while at the same time expecting that the projected amount of foreign aid will be sufficient to finance the budget deficit without issuing new debt and maintain international reserves at a level sufficient to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market. An additional factor for market expectations was the central bank’s decision to start an interest rate easing cycle and cut the key policy rate from 15.5% to 15% starting January 30, 2026.
According to KYT Group’s forecasts, in the next one to two weeks, the dollar will remain in the basic range of 42.9-43.4 UAH/$1 with the risk of fluctuations towards a weaker hryvnia, in the medium term of two to three months – 43.50-44.00 UAH/$1, while in the first half of 2026, the benchmark remains
43.5-44.9 UAH/$1.
