Oil prices are rising Wednesday on data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on sharper than expected U.S. inventory declines.
According to API, they fell by 2.41 million barrels in the week ended June 23. Experts polled by Trading Economics forecasted an average decline of 1.47m barrels.
The official data on oil reserves for the previous week will be released by the U.S. Department of Energy on Wednesday at 5:30 p.m.
Brent August futures on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $72.59 a barrel by 8:10 a.m. Wednesday, up $0.33 (0.46%) from the previous session’s close. Those contracts fell $1.92 (2.6%) to $72.26 a barrel on Tuesday.
The price of WTI futures for August at electronic trades of NYMEX grew by $0.22 (0.32%) to $67.92 per barrel by that time. The day before these contracts fell by $1.67, or 2.4%, to $67.7 per barrel.
The oil market ends the second quarter of 2023 in the negative, due to the slower-than-expected recovery of the Chinese economy after the lifting of quarantine restrictions. Fears of recession in the U.S. and Europe amid tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank also put pressure on the market.
Statistical data released on Tuesday, however, show that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite the Federal Reserve’s restrictive policy. The nation’s consumer confidence index rose in June to its highest since January 2022, and new-home sales in May were the highest since last February.
“The strong economic statistics we saw yesterday increase the likelihood of a further Fed rate hike,” notes Warren Patterson, who is in charge of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV. – This is the moment when good news is bad news for the market.
Oil prices are rising on Tuesday morning after a moderate increase in the previous session.
The value of August futures for Brent at London’s ICE Futures Exchange is $74.57 a barrel by 8:06 Moscow time, which is $0.39 (0.53%) above the previous session’s closing price. Those contracts rose $0.33 (0.5%) to $74.18 a barrel on Monday.
WTI futures for August crude oil grew by $0.45 (0.65%) to $69.82 per barrel at electronic trades of NYMEX. The day before those contracts grew $0.21 (0.3%) to $69.37 a barrel.
Traders continue to estimate the consequences of events in Russia last weekend, Market Watch notes. In particular, the market fears that destabilization of domestic political situation may lead to a reduction in oil exports from the country, CFRA Research analyst Stuart Glickman wrote.
In addition, market participants are watching the macroeconomic statistics from China, where the economy is growing weaker than expected, which in turn negatively affects energy prices, said Colin Cieszynski, senior strategist at SIA Wealth Management.
Largely because of the Chinese factor, as well as the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy, WTI could end up declining for a second straight quarter, something that hasn’t happened since 2019.
Oil prices are falling on Tuesday on signals that the stimulus measures in China are not enough to push the country’s economy and demand for oil to robust growth.
The day before, analysts at several investment banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. worsened forecasts for the Chinese economy.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC, the country’s central bank) on Tuesday lowered its benchmark one-year lending rate (LPR) by 10 basis points (bps) to 3.55% per year. The rate on five-year loans was lowered to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent per annum, the NBK said in a statement. The rates were lowered for the first time since August 2022.
August Brent crude futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange were at $75.82 a barrel by 8:20 a.m. Tuesday, down $0.27 (0.35%) from the previous session’s closing price. Those contracts fell $0.52 (0.7%) to $76.09 a barrel on Monday.
The price of WTI crude futures for July at electronic trades of NYMEX fell by $0.9 (1.25%) to $70.88 per barrel by that time. The day before, WTI was not traded in the main due to a holiday in the U.S.
Oil prices may end in the negative for the second quarter in a row on the background of sufficient supply in the market and expectations of weakening demand in the context of tightening of monetary policy by the world’s major central banks.
China increased oil production by 2.7 percent in May compared with the same month last year, to 18.1 million tons, according to the State Statistics Administration of the country.
Refining output soared 15.4 percent last month to 62 million tons, the second-highest total ever recorded. This was due, among other things, to the completion of scheduled maintenance work at a number of refineries.
Natural gas production in China in May increased by 7.2% and reached 19 billion cubic meters, since the beginning of this year – by 5.3% to 97.3 billion cubic meters.
Oil imports last month totaled 51.44 million tons, up 12.2 percent from the same month a year earlier, customs said. Gas imports rose 17.3% to 10.64 million tons, the highest since January 2022.
CHINA, GAS, OIL, PRODUCTION
Prices for oil of reference brands are declining Monday morning after the previous session they rose to their highest marks since June 7.
Negative impact on investors’ moods is given by concerns about the growth rate of the global economy, says Trading Economics. In particular, several major Western banks downgraded forecasts for GDP growth in China, the world’s largest importer of oil, based on recently published statistical data showing a slowdown in economic recovery in the country after the lifting of pandemic restrictions.
Brent crude futures for August delivery on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $75.5 a barrel as of 7:56 a.m. ET, down $1.11 (1.45%) from the close of the previous session. Those contracts rose $0.94 (1.2%) to $76.61 a barrel on Friday.
The price of futures for WTI crude oil for July at electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by $1.1 (1.5%) to $70.68 per barrel on Friday morning. At the end of previous session the contracts increased by $1.16 (1.6%) to $71.78 per barrel.
Over the past week, Brent gained 2.4% and WTI gained 2.3%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. This was the most significant weekly rise since early April.
Benchmark crude oil prices are declining Friday morning after a significant increase a day earlier.
Traders are worried about the likelihood of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which could have a negative impact on fuel demand.
Brent crude futures for August delivery on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $75.49 per barrel as of 7:57 a.m., down $0.18 (0.2%) from the close of the previous session. Those contracts rose $2.47 (3.4%) to $75.67 a barrel on Thursday.
The price of WTI futures for July crude oil on the electronic trades of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell on Friday morning by $0.16 (0.2%) to $70.46 per barrel. The contract value rose by $2.35 (3%) to $70.62 a barrel at the end of previous session.
The Fed’s management decided Wednesday not to change the prime rate range (5-5.25% per year), but signaled the likelihood of further increases this year to curb consumer price growth.
The ECB, as forecasted, raised all three key interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of Thursday’s meeting – to the highest levels in 22 years. At the same time, Bank President Christine Lagarde said that the set goals in the fight against inflation have not yet been achieved. According to her, the central bank is “very likely” to raise rates again in July.
