Oil prices continue to rise on Tuesday, the market is waiting for the meeting of the OPEC + states, during which a decision may be made to reduce the quota for oil production.
Bloomberg reports, citing sources in OPEC+, that the alliance will discuss the possibility of cutting production by more than 1 million barrels per day (b / d).
The meeting of the OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), as well as the OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting, will be held in person at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna on October 5. Since March 2020, meetings have been held via videoconferencing.
The cost of December futures for Brent oil on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:10 am UTC on Tuesday is $89.27 per barrel, which is $0.41 (0.46%) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading on Monday, these contracts rose by $3.72 (4.4%) to $88.86 per barrel.
The price of futures for WTI oil for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by this time by $0.24 (0.29%), to $83.87 per barrel. By the close of the market on Monday, the value of these contracts increased by $4.14 (5.2%) to $83.63 per barrel.
“We expect a significant reduction in the OPEC+ quota on paper, but in reality it will be much less,” said Warren Patterson, who is in charge of commodity markets strategy at ING Groep NV in Singapore.
“A decrease of 1 million b/d would mean a real decrease in production by less than 400,000 b/d,” Bloomberg quoted the expert as saying.
Since September last year, a number of OPEC+ countries have lagged behind their planned production levels due to lack of investment, due to military clashes and sanctions. At the same time, the overall OPEC + quota increased, which allowed countries that can increase production to do so. In September of this year, OPEC+ ministers decided to reduce the quota for October by 100,000 bpd.
Oil prices fell 25% in the past quarter amid signals of a weakening global economy as a result of the rapid tightening of monetary policy by global central banks, including the Federal Reserve System (Fed). Experts fear a global recession and, consequently, a decline in demand for oil.
Oil prices are rising steadily on Monday morning after falling in September and the third quarter.
OPEC+ countries are considering cutting oil production by more than 1 million barrels per day, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing participants in an alliance meeting to be held on October 5.
The price of December futures for Brent crude on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:05 am CST on Monday is $87.29 per barrel, which is $2.15 (2.53%) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading last Friday, these contracts fell in price by $2.04 (2.3%) to $85.14 per barrel. November futures, which expired on Friday, stood at $87.96 a barrel, down 53 cents (0.6%).
Brent ended the previous week up 2.2%, but fell in September and the third quarter by 8.8% and 23%, respectively.
The price of futures for WTI oil for November on the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $81.57 per barrel by this time, which is $2.08 (2.62%) more than the final value of the previous session. By the close of the last session, the cost of these contracts fell by $1.74 (2.1%) to $79.49 per barrel.
Over the week, WTI rose in price by 1%, but also lost 11% and almost 25% in the month and quarter, respectively.
Oil traders’ concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth have recently contributed to the decline in oil prices at the fastest pace since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Oil analysts still expect oil prices to recover to almost $100 per barrel by the end of the year, despite the recent drop in quotations to January lows on concerns about global fuel demand.
The price of Brent will rise to just above $99 a barrel in the fourth quarter, according to a poll of analysts conducted by The Wall Street Journal. On Thursday, this variety is trading at around $88 per barrel.
North American oil WTI, according to the consensus forecast, will rise to about $95 per barrel from the current $80.9 per barrel.
Analysts generally believe that both brands will hold at these levels until mid-2023, and then rise slightly by the end of the year: Brent to $101 per barrel, WTI to $98 per barrel.
All interviewed experts are confident that the average cost of Brent in October-December will be at least $95 per barrel, except for Citi analysts – they adhere to the most pessimistic forecast and believe that North Sea oil will cost an average of $85 in the fourth quarter. The bank is also waiting for quotes to fall to $74 by the end of 2023, according to a WSJ survey.
Analysts believe that the expected reduction in OPEC + production will provide serious support to the oil market until the end of the year. In addition, the entry into force of European sanctions on Russian fuel could provoke a decrease in global supply by 1.5 million barrels per day, economists at Societe Generale said.
Oil prices will stabilize during trading on Wednesday afternoon after falling in the morning.
The cost of November futures for Brent crude on the London ICE Futures exchange by 14:50 UTC on Wednesday is $86.37 per barrel, which is $0.1 (0.12%) higher than the closing price of the previous session.
The price of futures for WTI oil for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by this time by $0.23 (0.29%), to $78.73 per barrel.
The rise of the US dollar, which resumed on Wednesday, has a negative impact on the market. The appreciation of the dollar against the backdrop of prospects for tightening US monetary policy leads to the fact that the purchase of commodities becomes less attractive for holders of other currencies.
Investors are also concerned about a potential decline in oil demand due to the risks of a global economic recession amid rising interest rates by the world’s central banks. Analysts at Goldman Sachs downgraded their forecast for oil prices for next year to $108 per barrel from $125 per barrel earlier.
Meanwhile, traders remain concerned about the prospects for supply, which is associated with the suspension of production in the Gulf of Mexico due to the approaching Hurricane Ian. The US National Hurricane Center expects Ian to reach Florida as early as Wednesday.
Due to the approach of the hurricane, Chevron and BP announced the suspension of four production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Market attention is gradually shifting to the upcoming meeting of the OPEC + alliance, which will be held on October 5. Analysts believe that the alliance may decide to actively cut oil production due to falling prices.
Oil prices picked up a steady pace of growth on Tuesday afternoon on concern due to reduced supply on the market.
The price of November futures for Brent crude on the London ICE Futures exchange by 14:35 Moscow time on Tuesday is $85.11 per barrel, which is $1.05 (1.25%) higher than the price at the close of the previous session.
The price of futures for WTI oil for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by this time by $0.91 (1.19%), to $77.62 per barrel.
Traders are monitoring the situation in the Gulf of Mexico in connection with the growing strength of Hurricane Yan. The US National Hurricane Center expects Yan to reach Florida by the middle of this week.
Chevron Corp. announced the suspension of two production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico due to the hurricane. The total volume of oil production from these two platforms is about 120,000 barrels per day.
British BP also intends to close two platforms in the region, each of which produces more than 100 thousand barrels per day.
In addition, the market takes into account that the OPEC + countries may cut oil production levels in order to spur price increases. Representatives of the association have repeatedly stated this before.
“I think OPEC will have to do this at some point in order to cut supply and push prices up,” said Gary Ross, head of Black Gold Investors.
In order to keep prices at $90 per barrel, OPEC will need to cut production by 1 million b/d, according to Ross’s calculations. In the meantime, OPEC + can cut production by at least 500 thousand b / d, according to UBS.
Meanwhile, the supply of petroleum products may be limited in France. The TotalEnergies refinery in Feisen will remain closed until at least mid-October, French trade union CGT said. The plant, which produces up to 40% of oil products in France, has been closed since September 16 due to technical problems.
In addition, two other TotalEnergies refineries in Fos-sur-Mer and Port-Jerome-Gravenchon have been closed since last week due to a workers’ strike.
Benchmark oil gains slightly on Wednesday morning after dropping to two-week lows the day before as the dollar strengthened ahead of a series of central bank meetings.
The cost of November futures for Brent crude on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:13 CST on Wednesday is $90.84 per barrel, which is $0.22 (0.24%) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading on Tuesday, these contracts fell by $1.38 (1.5%) to $90.62 per barrel.
The price of futures for WTI oil for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $84.09 per barrel by this time, which is $0.15 (0.18%) higher than the final value of the previous session. By the close of the market the day before, the value of these contracts fell by $1.42 (1.7%) to $83.94 per barrel.
“A strong dollar, rising bond yields and concerns about demand amid a global economic slowdown are putting pressure on oil prices again,” said Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at CMC Markets UK. “The market is expecting rate hikes this week from the Fed, the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank”.
“Worry about the lack of supply does not provide the support for quotes, which could be expected, but it also means that we will not see a strong collapse either,” the expert added.
The Fed meeting will end on Wednesday evening, and analysts generally believe that as a result of it, the key interest rate in the United States will be increased by at least 75 basis points.
Meanwhile, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated that U.S. oil inventories rose 1 million barrels last week after rising 6 million barrels a week earlier. The official inventory report from the US Department of Energy will be released at 17:30 CST.
