The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food expects the recovery of the export volumes of grain and leguminous crops by Ukraine in the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY, July-June) to the indicators of the 2019/2020 MY, the department predicts their exports in the current MY at the level of 56 million tonnes with a harvest of 75.8 million tonnes, the European Business Association (EBA) said on its website.
According to the report, in the 2021/2022 MY, the export of grains and legumes will grow by a quarter compared to preliminary data for 2020/2021 MY, from 44.63 million tonnes to 56 million tonnes.
As reported, with reference to the preliminary data of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Ukraine’s exports of grain and leguminous crops in the 2020/2021 MY decreased by 21.3% compared to the 2019/2020 MY, to 44.63 million tonnes. Exports of wheat in the 2020/2021 MY decreased by 18.9% compared to the 2019/2020 MY, to 16.44 million tonnes, corn – by 23.9%, to 23.06 million tonnes, barley – by 17.1%, to 4.21 million tonnes, flour export – 2.6 times, to 126,000 tonnes.
Minister of Agrarian Policy Roman Leschenko told Interfax-Ukraine in May 2021 that the harvest of grains and oilseeds in the 2021/2022 MY could exceed 100 million tonnes, the harvest of winter wheat, corn, sunflower, barley and soybeans is expected to grow.
Ukraine’s economy after falling by 5.1% in 2020 will grow by 4% this year, with a slight increase in inflation (December from December) from 5% to 5.8% -6%, Citi analysts stated in the forecast of the global economy.
In their opinion, consumer spending will become the key growth driver against the backdrop of a planned 30% increase in the minimum wage from UAH 5,000 to UAH 6,500.
The experts expect the economy to recover to pre-crisis levels in the first quarter of 2022, generally assessing growth prospects in 2022 at 3% with inflation falling to 5.3%.
The bank forecasts that the National Bank will increase the refinancing rate by 50 b.p. in the second quarter of 2021, to 6.5% in order to balance price pressure caused by the rise in inflation. In particular, Citi expects the consumer price index to rise to 5.8% by the end of 2021.
According to the survey, the analysts predict the weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate by the end of this year to UAH 29.47/$1 with an average annual value of UAH 28.92/$1, and in the next year to UAH 30.67/$1 and 30.12 UAH/$1, respectively.
The analysts noted the institutional regression that occurred in 2020, but they are inclined to believe that the need to finance a large budget deficit will be an incentive for Ukrainian authorities to continue cooperation with the IMF. In their opinion, ensuring the independence of the National Bank and finding a way out of the situation that arose after the Constitutional Court had recognized a number of anti-corruption norms as unconstitutional will be of decisive importance.
