Global lead and zinc production will exceed demand in 2025 and 2026, according to forecasts by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG).
Refined lead output is expected to increase by 2% this year to 13.34 million tons. This will mainly be driven by increased production in Canada, Germany, India, Mexico, Sweden, and Brazil, while Kazakhstan, the UK, and the US are expected to see a decline in output.
In 2026, global production will grow by 1% to 13.47 million tons due to increased output in Brazil and India, as well as a recovery in Kazakhstan. At the same time, experts predict a decline in China and the UK.
Global lead consumption this year may increase by 1.8% to 13.25 million tons, including 1.8% in Europe, 6.6% in the US, and 0.9% in China. Next year, global demand for the metal is expected to increase by 0.9% to 13.37 million tons, with China seeing a 1.7% decline.
Thus, in 2025, the global market will see a lead surplus of about 91,000 tons, and next year the surplus will increase to 102,000 tons, according to the group’s report.
Global refined zinc production is expected to increase by 2.7% to 13.8 million tons this year.
In particular, production in China will grow by 6.2%. Output is also expected to grow in Norway, where Boliden completed the expansion of the Odda plant’s production capacity by 150,000 tons per year in March. Meanwhile, zinc output is forecast to decline in Italy and Japan due to the closure of Glencore and Toho Zinc plants in these countries, as well as in Brazil, Canada, Mexico, and South Korea.
In 2026, global zinc production will rise by 2.4% to 14.13 million tons. An increase is expected in Brazil, Canada, Norway, and China.
Metal consumption this year may grow by 1.1% to 13.71 million tons. In particular, an increase of 1.3% is expected in China and 0.7% in Europe. Experts also suggest the possibility of an increase in demand in India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, and Vietnam, as well as a decline in Brazil and South Korea.
In 2026, global demand for zinc will increase by 1% to 13.86 million tons. In particular, it will rise by 0.1% in China, with increases also forecast in Europe, Brazil, India, and the US.
The global zinc surplus in 2025 is expected to be 85,000 tons, and next year – 271,000 tons.
ILZSG, established by the UN in 1959, provides information on the supply and demand for zinc and lead and conducts research on the situation in the global markets for these metals. The group’s members include Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Morocco, Namibia, Norway, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Sweden, Turkey, and the United States, as well as the European Union. These countries account for more than 85% of global lead and zinc production and consumption.
DEMAND, LEAD, PRODUCTION, zinc
October 29, 2025, Kyiv, International Exhibition Center (IEC)
Where is the profit during a crisis? How to scale up agricultural processing, attract investment, implement AI, and overcome the shortage of personnel in the food industry?
Experts, entrepreneurs, and leaders of the Ukrainian food sector will provide answers to these questions during the Agro2Food Profit Forum 2025 — the main event of the year for food producers and processors.
The forum will take place on October 29, 2025, in Kyiv, at the International Exhibition Center, as part of the Agro2Food exhibition of technologies, equipment, and solutions for agro-processing and the food industry.
5 panels. 1 day. Maximum practical benefit.
Panel #1. THE ECONOMICS OF ADDED VALUE IN THE FOOD INDUSTRY. Where is the profit in a crisis?
In partnership with the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
With the participation of representatives of industry associations, clusters, distributors, and owners of processing businesses, who will share real-life cases of development, scaling, and optimization of production.
Key message: To show how Ukrainian producers are finding new sources of profit even in times of turbulence.
Panel No. 2. THE ECONOMICS OF INVESTMENT AND EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
In partnership with the Reform Support Team (RST) of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine and ProConsalting. With the participation of a representative of Oschadbank (on agribusiness support programs), the owner of an agricultural processing company (with a scaling case study), and a supplier of processing equipment (on technological innovations).
Key message: How to attract investment during wartime, develop exports, and implement sustainability strategies?
Key topics:
Panel No. 3. ECONOMY OF INNOVATION. “Digitalization. AI. Food processing”
In partnership with the Ukrainian Food Manufacturers Association U-Food and the Ukrainian Cluster Alliance.
Key message: Artificial intelligence is already changing the Ukrainian food industry.
Key topics:
Panel No. 4. HUMAN RESOURCE ECONOMICS. Labor shortage in the food industry: challenges and solutions.
In partnership with the Job Platform for Food Technologists and Manufacturers and Odessa National Technological University.
With the participation of American University Kyiv.
Key topics:
Panel No. 5. THE ECONOMICS OF UNIQUENESS
Main message: Innovative products, intellectual property, and craftsmanship as a profit strategy.
Key topics:
Agro2Food Profit Forum 2025 is:
Agro2Food statistics.
At the exhibition venue, which will reach 4,000 m2, over 120 exhibitors will present all the key achievements in agricultural processing and the food industry.
Organizer:
Premier Expo:
Where and when:
October 29, 2025
International Exhibition Center (IEC), Kyiv
More about the program: https://agro2food.com.ua/program/profit-forum
Media contact:
Olena Zhoga, Conference Manager, Premier Expo
+380 (67) 789 27 09
Agro2Food — Building an economy of added value together.
See you at the main event of the sincere Ukrainian autumn!
Tickets for the exhibition: https://agro2food.com.ua/visitors/registration
Interfax-Ukraine — information partner
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/press-release/1112280.html
Since the start of the full-scale war, the Kryvyi Rih Mining and Metallurgical Plant PJSC ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih (AMKR, Dnipropetrovsk region) has invested $325 million in production, according to Oleg Krykavsky, the company’s director of government relations, at the conference “Ukrainian Export: Through Thorns to the EU,” organized by the publication Ukrainska Pravda.
According to him, AMKR operates in difficult conditions, with electricity prices in Ukraine significantly higher than in Europe, because in Ukraine, companies buy expensive electricity on the market a day in advance, while in a number of European Union countries, long-term contracts are in place and special state programs to support metallurgy are being introduced to stimulate economic growth.
In particular, there are special mechanisms for reducing the cost of electricity on the French market through nuclear power plants, and in Germany, there are plans to allocate €6.5 billion and introduce a number of additional measures, including regulating the upper price limit to €60 per MWh (although industry insists on a price of €50), while in Ukraine, prices are constantly rising and have already reached $180 per MWh. Therefore, the Ukrainian government must also implement similar solutions to preserve industrial potential and jobs.
“Despite the current challenges, we continue to invest: during the full-scale invasion, our investments amounted to more than $325 million. These include repairs, modernization, logistics, preparation for European standards, and future capital projects,” Krykavsky stated.
He added that the key tasks for AMKR remain unchanged: integration into the EU, investment in development, and support for Ukrainian production even in the most difficult times.
ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih is the largest producer of long products in Ukraine. It specializes in the production of long products, in particular, rebar and wire rod. The company has a full production cycle, with production capacities designed for an annual output of over 6 million tons of steel, more than 5 million tons of rolled products, and over 5.5 million tons of pig iron.
ArcelorMittal owns Ukraine’s largest mining and metallurgical complex, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, and a number of small companies, including ArcelorMittal Beryslav.
Ferrexpo plc, a mining company with its main assets in Ukraine, produced 2 million 808,594 thousand tons of pellets in January-September this year, which is 38.5% less than in the same period last year (4 million 567,168 thousand tons).
According to the company’s press release on Monday, total production of commercial products (pellets and iron ore concentrate) for the first nine months of 2025 increased by 0.9% to 5 million 67,888 thousand tons. In particular, the output of commercial concentrate amounted to 2 million 259,294 thousand tons against 457,264 thousand tons, respectively. The company also produced 81,787 thousand tons of DR pellets (326,168 thousand tons in the first nine months of 2024) and 2 million 726,807 thousand tons of premium pellets (a decrease of 35.7%).
The press release notes that due to the ongoing suspension of VAT refunds, the total amount of VAT withheld currently stands at $47 million. Due to the resulting reduction in financial liquidity, the group was forced to reduce production to a single rolling mill line, but was able to increase production of low-alumina Fe67% concentrate to meet demand from Chinese customers.
As a result, total commercial production for the quarter reached 1.51 million tons, up 3% from 1.46 million tons in the second quarter and down 29% from 2.1 million tons in the first quarter.
It is also noted that the group continued to work actively to reduce overall cash expenditures. This included reducing working hours for employees, continuously reducing purchases of goods and services, and suspending all non-essential capital expenditures, overhead costs, and corporate social responsibility (CSR) expenses.
Commenting on the group’s performance, interim CEO Lucio Genovese noted that the third quarter of 2025 was the first quarter in which the company fully felt the impact of the Ukrainian tax authorities’ decision to suspend VAT refunds to Ukrainian subsidiaries.
“Despite the further reduction of pelletizing capacity to one line, we achieved a total production volume of 1.5 million tons for the quarter. Production for the first nine months of 2025 was comparable to the same period last year, totaling 5.1 million tons. High demand from Chinese customers for our high-quality low-alumina concentrates allowed us to increase production by 36% compared to the previous quarter and almost four times since the beginning of the year compared to the same period last year,” the top manager said.
At the same time, he pointed out that the tax authorities’ refusal to refund VAT remains the most important problem for the business. He recalled that the group had received official notifications from the tax authorities about the suspension of VAT refunds from March 2025 for the period beginning in January 2025. Similar notifications were received every month until July, and the total amount of unrecovered VAT for this period is $47 million. If VAT refunds are also suspended for August and September, the estimated total amount of unrecovered VAT will be $58 million.
At the same time, cost-cutting measures introduced in the second quarter continued in the third quarter. At the end of September, approximately 20% of employees were on leave or had reduced working hours.
During the third quarter, VAT issues were exacerbated by Russia’s intensified air attacks on Ukraine’s railway network and domestic energy infrastructure. These issues create additional challenges in managing operations and logistics.
Ferrexpo produced 2 million 169,631 thousand tons of rolled products in the first half of 2025, which is 34.2% less than in January-June 2024 (3 million 297,441 thousand tons). Total production of commercial products in the first half of 2025 decreased by 9% compared to the first half of 2024, to 3 million 393,135 thousand tons. In particular, the output of commercial concentrate amounted to 1 million 223,504 thousand tons against 429,865 thousand tons, respectively. The company also produced 81,787 thousand tons of DR pellets (in the first half of 2024 – 162,645 thousand tons) and 2 million 87,844 thousand tons of premium pellets (a decrease of 33.4%).
In Q1 2025, Ferrexpo produced 1 million 347,749 thousand tons of pellets, which is 26% less than in January-March last year (1 million 813,973 thousand tons). At the same time, total production of commercial products (pellets and iron ore concentrate) in Q1 2025 increased by 3% compared to Q1 2024, reaching 2 million 125,467 thousand tons. In particular, the output of commercial concentrate amounted to 777,718 thousand tons, compared to 240,516 thousand tons in Q1 2024. The company also produced 81,879 thousand tons of DR pellets (not produced in Q1 2024), 1 million 105,049 thousand tons of premium pellets (a decrease of 36%), and 160,913 thousand tons of other pellets (an increase of 95%).
In 2024, Ferrexpo increased its production of pellets by 58% compared to 2023, from 3 million 845,325 thousand tons to 6 million 70,541 thousand tons.
Ferrexpo owns 100% of Yeristovsky GOK LLC, 99.9% of Bilanovsky GOK LLC, and 100% of Poltavsky GOK PJSC.
In August 2025, farms of all categories produced 640,000 tons of raw milk, which is 23,000 tons less (-3%) than in July 2025 and 72,000 tons less (-10%) than in August 2024, according to the Milk Producers Association (MPA) citing data from the State Statistics Service.
The industry association specified that in January-August 2025, milk production in Ukraine amounted to 4.69 million tons, which is 239 thousand tons less (-5%) than in the same period last year. In August, enterprises accounted for 42% of raw milk production, while private farms accounted for 58%.
Enterprises produced 268,000 tons of raw milk in August 2025, which is only 1,000 tons less (-0.3%) compared to July 2025, but 18,000 tons more (+7%) compared to August 2024. In January-August 2025, commercial dairy farms produced 2.1 million tons of raw milk, which is 116 thousand tons more (+6%) than in the same period last year.
In private households, milk production in August 2025 amounted to 372,000 tons, which is 22,000 tons less (-6%) than in July 2025 and 90,000 tons less (-19%) than in August 2024. In January-August this year, the private sector produced 2.59 million tons of raw milk, which is 355 thousand tons less (-12%) than in the same period last year.
In January-August 2025, dairy farms increased raw milk production in 15 regions of Central and Western Ukraine. The AVM noted that agricultural enterprises in Zakarpattia region (+29%), Lviv region (+22%), and Khmelnytskyi region (+21%) increased their raw milk production the most compared to the same period last year. The consequences of the war and relocation affected the decline in raw milk production in January-August 2025 at dairy farms in such frontline regions as Zaporizhzhia (-11%), Dnipropetrovsk (-5%), Sumy (-4%), and Kharkiv (-3%) regions.
“Despite Russian missile and bomb strikes, relocation, and rising production costs, the growth rate of raw milk production in Ukraine’s industrial sector since the beginning of 2025 has been one of the best in Europe and the world. In particular, the growth rate of milk yield during this period in the US and New Zealand was +1.4%, while the EU reduced its raw milk production by 0.3%. Although milk yields on dairy farms in August were mostly stable and generally in line with July 2025 levels, the weather this summer was more favorable than last year, and fans were installed on farms to improve cow comfort and prevent heatstroke. This year, we managed to avoid a significant drop in milk production, unlike in the summer of 2024,” said Georgiy Kukhaleishvili, an analyst at the association.
At the same time, according to the business association, milk production in private farms continued to decline on an annual basis.
“It is likely that if private farms do not consolidate by 2030, their milk will no longer be sent for processing and will be used for their own consumption. The work of new dairy farms in western Ukraine will compensate for the reduction in milk production in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine due to ongoing military operations,” the AVM emphasized.
According to the industry association, the factors that may force agricultural enterprises to refrain from further increasing raw milk production according to the industry association, are the decline in world prices for exchange-traded commodities, weak demand in the domestic market, a reduction in supplies to foreign markets due to the suspension of exports to the EU after the exhaustion of quotas, and increased competition from Russian and Belarusian suppliers in the markets of post-Soviet countries, the industry association believes.
In 2024-2025, Ukraine ranked fourth in the world in walnut production, growing about 101,000 tons, second only to China, the US, and Chile, according to a study by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) entitled “The Nut Industry of Ukraine.”
Analysts noted that in 2023, Ukrainian walnut exports were estimated at $77 million. At the same time, the industry has only just begun to commercialize. Until now, it has been quite informal, with over 95% of walnuts grown in private households.
“This is a unique production model, completely opposite to, for example, the American model, which uses large industrial orchards in the US,” the experts noted.
According to KSE researchers, support from the state and donors could significantly expand the industry. For example, the “eRobota” grant program, which covers up to 70% of the costs of planting orchards, has already directed billions of hryvnia into nut crops, making them one of the most supported horticultural sectors. Previous experience gives an optimistic outlook for expansion, with almost 6,000 hectares of new orchards planted with state subsidies between 2018 and 2023.
Analysts note that the environmental friendliness of nuts creates an additional advantage for their export. The crop has a low carbon footprint during cultivation — 0.76 kg CO₂/kg compared to 3.56 kg CO₂/kg for almonds. This means that walnuts can be positioned as a climate-friendly superfood, the study concludes.
Analysts also noted that the export value of nuts increases approximately fourfold due to processing. Shelled nuts are sold at almost four times the price of unshelled nuts, and in 2023, they accounted for 72% of Ukrainian walnut exports. The main markets are the EU (58% of revenue), Turkey, France, and Romania.
According to the researchers, in order to accelerate the development of the sector and increase exporters’ profits, two problems must be solved first: the shortage of high-quality seedlings and low production and storage standards, which affect product quality.
Experts noted that importing seedlings will not solve the first problem. Seedlings imported from France and Moldova generally do not take root well in Ukrainian soil. Another issue is mold and toxins, which form as a result of uneven drying or improper storage and are a key barrier to increasing the industry’s efficiency and deeper integration into the EU.
“Walnuts are one of Ukraine’s most promising export crops. They could become the flagship product of Ukraine’s agricultural integration into the EU. Even despite the war, fragmented production, and political challenges, our producers are able to compete with leading European producers. To do this, entrepreneurs need to be provided with seedlings and advice. At the same time, the industry must be brought into line with EU requirements,” KSE concluded.
