In 2025-2026 marketing year, the export of rapeseed from Ukraine may decrease to the lowest level since 2022-2023 MY and will amount to about 2.7-2.8 mln tonnes, down 13% compared to the current season, according to APK-Inform news agency.
The analysts noted that the reason for such a decrease is the expected decrease in oilseed production, as well as a possible increase in demand from the processing industry.
According to experts, in 2025, the production of rapeseed in Ukraine may decrease to the lowest level since 2022 due to the reduction of winter crops area as a result of moisture deficit in the fall of 2024 and poor wintering of crops in a number of major crop producing regions. In addition, cold weather, frosts and snow in the first decade of April may significantly worsen the situation.
According to APK-Inform estimates, the planted areas under rapeseed are 1.34 mln ha (-4%), while the harvested area may not exceed 1.17 mln ha (-10%) and may be even lower due to unfavorable weather conditions. The forecast of oilseed production in 2025 is about 3.35-3.4 mln tons (-8%).
As for the distribution of rapeseed in the new season, analysts believe that the situation will largely depend on the tariff policy of China and the US.
“We are currently witnessing the deterioration of trade relations between the US and China, the US and Canada, and between China and Canada, which will lead to the redistribution of trade flows of canola and processed products, and may change farmers’ plans for sowing this crop in major regions,” the agency said.
Several countries may try to replace Canadian oil and meal on the Chinese market by increasing production of rapeseed/canola, but the question is in the timing – the products are already in short supply and China needs to increase supplies now, not in the new season.
Due to the trade wars, China is expected to increase its demand for Ukrainian rapeseed oil and meal in the new season, which may increase domestic processing, but it will depend on the ratio of the cost of raw materials and oil on the Ukrainian market. In addition, it may be more difficult for Ukrainian companies to build up stocks, as farmers are in no hurry to sell raw materials under forward contracts.
“The trade may remain weak until the impact of frost and snow on the oilseeds in a number of European countries and in Ukraine in particular is assessed. It is also important to keep in mind that if the situation with tariffs does not change before the new season and all duties for Canada remain in force, Canadian canola may increase its presence on the European market, and, therefore, the window for the Ukrainian oilseed remains limited to the first half of the season,” APK-Inform summarized.
In 2024-2025 marketing year (MY, July-June), Ukraine remained the main supplier of rapeseed to the European Union, supplying 3.4 mln tonnes of the seed, up 5% compared to the same period of the previous year, APK-Inform reported citing the German Grain and Oilseed Farmers’ Association (UFOP).
“With the volume of 2.2 mln tons and the import share of 63%, Ukraine remains the most important country of origin, as in previous years. This is slightly higher than the last year’s volume of 2.1 mln tons,” the analysts said.
At the same time, the second wave of oilseed imports from Australia is expected in the second half of the season, which has already supplied 875 thsd tonnes of rapeseed to the EU market by mid-January. According to the research of Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), this is about 19% more than in the same period last season.
“With the share of almost 26%, Australia is the second most important supplier of rapeseed to the EU, followed by Canada – 144 thsd tonnes,” the report says.
It is added that the volume of shipments from Canada increased more than three times compared to the previous year, although it remains at a rather low level. This is due to the fact that Canada mainly grows GM rapeseed varieties, while the EU has restrictions on the use of oil produced from them. Therefore, Canadian imports are mainly intended for biofuel production, APK-Inform added.
In the August report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised the forecast of global oilseeds production in 2024/2025 MY by 4.5 mln tonnes to 690.5 mln tonnes due to the growth of soybean and rapeseed production, which partially offset the decline in sunflower, cotton, peanuts and palm kernel production.
Analysts increased global rapeseed production by 0.9 million tons to 88.8 million, mainly due to the expansion of rapeseed production in Russia. World sunflower production was reduced by 2.3 million tons to 52.5 million due to unfavorable weather conditions that affected yields in Ukraine, Russia, the EU, Turkey, Serbia and Moldova.
The USDA’s global soybean production in 2024/2025 is increased by 6.9 million tons to 428.7 million tons due to higher production in the US, Ukraine, Russia, India and Benin. Exports are increased by 1.0 million tons to 181.2 million due to higher exports to the US, Ukraine, Russia and Benin, partially offsetting lower shipments from Argentina. Soybean imports were increased for Egypt, the EU, Iran and Turkey. Global ending stocks of soybeans in 2024/25 MY increased by 6.5 million tons to 134.3 million, mainly due to higher stocks in China, the United States and Argentina, partially offset by lower stocks in Brazil.
The sown areas in the season-2024 remained at the level of the previous year, but there is a redistribution of crops: the area under grains decreased by 6% and increased under oilseeds – sunflower by 2%, soybeans by 11%, according to the international research agricultural company Corteva Agriscience in Ukraine.
The reduction in the area under grain crops is due to lower prices for finished products and, accordingly, low profitability of cultivation, said Oleksandra Belash, head of the company’s marketing department, at a meeting of the Media Club in Kyiv on Wednesday. On the contrary, the area under oilseeds has increased due to the rise in prices for finished products.
Corteva Agriscience, in particular, predicts an expansion of winter rapeseed areas for the 2025 harvest.
In 2024-2025, Corteva’s corn seed range will include 44 hybrids in all maturity groups, and sunflower – 31 hybrids for different growing technologies.
The company also announced the launch of new crop protection products and the expansion of its biological portfolio to help customers increase their farming efficiency.
Agro-Region has completed harvesting of winter crops from 12 thousand hectares, in particular, winter rape from 5 thousand hectares and winter wheat from 7 thousand hectares, the results of threshing exceeded the plan, the press service of the agro-holding reported on Facebook.
“The average yield of winter rape for the company amounted to 3.6 c/ha, which even exceeded the average yield of this crop for the last five years. Weather conditions allowed to get quality rape grain with minimal tillage, moisture and weed impurity in the base and meet the key contractual indicators”, – said the chief agronomist of the agricultural holding Yuri Lysak.
Speaking about winter wheat yield, he noted that the plan was also exceeded – by 10%.
“The average yield of winter wheat amounted to 6.6 tons/ha. At the same time, two clusters received yields of more than 7 tons/ha, the best result was shown by the Western cluster – 7.89 tons/ha,” Lysak added.
Winter wheat quality indicators (moisture content, gluten, protein and other parameters) are among the best in Agro-Region in recent years.
“73% of wheat is of second and third class. This is the result of proper selection of varieties and nutrition management,” stated the chief agronomist.
Agro-Region Agro Holding owns a land bank of 39 thousand hectares in Kyiv, Chernihiv, Zhitomir and Khmelnitsky regions. It specializes in crop production. It consists of 11 companies united in four crop production clusters. It has two elevators – Boryspil with a capacity of 73 thousand tons and Miropolskiy with a capacity of 52 thousand tons.
The annual harvest of grain and oilseeds of Agro-Region is up to 200 thousand tons.
Swedish company Lobiu Sala AB, owned by former Ukrainian Economy Minister Aivaras Abromavicius, in April 2021 received from the Antimonopoly Committee (AMCU) permission to purchase Swedish Agro Region Stockholm Holding, which manages Agro Region group of companies in Ukraine.
In 2023-2024 marketing year, Ukraine processed 1.0 mln tonnes of rapeseed, which was 22.3% of the 2023 harvest, despite the fact that rapeseed is considered to be mainly export-oriented agricultural raw material, reports the association Ukroliyaprom.
“The export of rapeseed oil in July-June of 2023/24 MY reached the record level of over 420 thsd tonnes. Ukrainian rapeseed oil is confidently entering the markets of China, EU countries, Malaysia, Singapore and other countries. Positive dynamics is also observed in rapeseed meal,” the analysts said.
Experts pointed out the continued growth of soybean and meal exports, and, accordingly, their production and processing, especially in January-June 2024.
“The growth of domestic processing of seeds and soybeans, as well as a significant increase in exports of high value-added products, namely oil and meal, confirms the position of the Association on the need to create conditions for maximum processing of oilseeds at domestic facilities. Further development of the oil and fat industry of Ukraine is envisaged not so much in increasing the processing of sunflower seeds as in such oilseeds as soybeans and rapeseed, which are still considered export-oriented,” Ukroliyamprom emphasized and expressed hope for the support of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food and the Ministry of Economy.
At the same time, the industry association is skeptical about the prospects for the oilseed harvest in the 2024 season in Ukraine. Experts noted that the oilseed market participants have different forecasts. Most of the players expect an increase in soybean production and a decrease in rapeseed production.
The production of sunflower seeds and oilseeds in general will be almost the same as in 2023/24 MY. However, the abnormal heat can significantly adjust all the forecasts, the industry association stated.
