The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine has decided to keep its key policy rate at 6% per annum.
The NBU expects inflation, which increased to 3.8% in November, into the target corridor of 5% +/- 1 pp at the end of the year and further growth in consumer prices in the following months, the central bank said on its website on Thursday.
According to the NBU estimates, the quarantine restrictions announced by the government for January 2021 will not have much influence on economic activity, consumer demand, and thus on inflation.
At the same time, balanced monetary and fiscal policies will not only contribute to the resumption of economic growth, but also will maintain inflation at moderate levels.
“Cooperation with the IMF remains fundamental for the recovery of Ukraine’s economy. Financing provided by the IMF and other international partners is crucial for the planned budgetary spending. Without this support, the fiscal impulse required to revive the economy will be much smaller, and the recovery will take longer,” the message reads.
Ukraine’s fulfillment of its obligations under agreements with international lenders will unblock next tranches of official financing. This will reduce interest rates on state borrowing on the domestic and foreign markets.
The NBU added that a rise in coronavirus cases and the imposition of stricter quarantine measures to overcome the pandemic remain the key risks to macrofinancial stability. This could result in gloomier consumer sentiment and subdued domestic demand, which would depress economic activity and restrain inflation.
It is indicated that if a negative pandemic scenario is implemented, which will restrain consumer demand and slow down economic growth in general, the National Bank will be able to provide the economy with an additional monetary impulse.
“Conversely, the materialization of the adverse scenario will restrain consumer demand, slowing overall economic growth. Under such conditions, inflationary pressures will be weaker, enabling the NBU to give the economy additional monetary impetus for growth,” the release says.
A summary of the discussion by Monetary Policy Committee members that preceded the approval of this decision will be published on 21 December 2020. The next monetary policy meeting of the NBU Board will be held on 21 January 2021, according to the confirmed and published schedule, the regulator reminds.
The refinancing rate could be reduced to 8% per annum faster than the central bank previously forecasted if a favorable macroeconomic situation is retained, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Yakiv Smolii has stated. “This year, if the macroeconomic situation does not change dramatically, the refinancing rate could be 8%. We previously planned to lower it to such a level in 2021. But now we see prerequisites for the more rapid easing of monetary policy,” Smolii said in an interview on YouTube channel KRYM.
According to him, this year businesses could expect loan rates at the level of 10-12% per annum in hryvnias.
As reported, from December 13, 2019 the NBU lowered the refinancing rate to 13.5% per annum from 15.5% per annum.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has decided from December 13, 2019 to cut its refinancing rate to the level, at which it was two years ago – 13.5% per annum from 15.5% per annum, which was set from October 25, 2019. “The NBU speeds up the monetary policy easing, as the rapid appreciation of the hryvnia makes inflationary pressures decline faster than expected,” the central bank said on Thursday.
The Board of the National Bank said that the stronger hryvnia made inflation decline towards the 5% target faster than envisaged in the latest macroeconomic forecast.
The NBU also said that it will revise the inflation forecast taking into account the situation in the foreign exchange market and will publish the updated macroeconomic forecast, including the future inflation path, at the end of January.
The regulator recalled that according to the October forecast, it plans to reduce the refinancing rate to 8%. However, as part of the next review of the macroeconomic forecast, in January it will publish an updated forecast of the pace of the refinancing rate. The forecast will take into account the impact of consumer demand and FX market conditions on future inflation.
In addition, the NBU will continue to monitor what progress is achieved in implementing key domestic reforms. These reforms are those that are envisaged in the memorandum of understanding signed by the Ukrainian government and the NBU, and the judicial reform required to establish the rule of law in Ukraine.
Commenting on the current situation, the regulator said that in November 2019, consumer inflation decreased sharply, reaching 5.1% year-over-year, which was below the NBU’s latest forecast. “In such a way, inflation reached the medium-term target of 5%, set by the NBU in 2015,” the central bank said.
The steady disinflation has been driven by a gradual easing of underlying pressures on prices, reflected in a slowdown of core inflation, and by lower energy prices. Inflation slowed markedly due to both the strengthening of the hryvnia and an improvement in inflation expectations. The above factors neutralized the pressure on prices from robust consumer demand and worse harvest of some vegetables.
The NBU said that the hryvnia strengthened due to several reasons. In October-November, the excess supply of foreign currency was mainly driven by proceeds from Ukrainian exports, in particular thanks to a record harvest of grain and oil crops, and selling foreign currency coming from borrowings of state-owned companies. Foreigners continued to invest in hryvnia government bonds, but it did not have major influence on the foreign exchange market, unlike in the past months. At the same time, the NBU actively purchased excess foreign currency to replenish international reserves. Net foreign exchange interventions have totaled over $5.5 billion since the start of 2019.
“Reaching the staff-level agreement on the new cooperation program with the International Monetary Fund is an important milestone in the progress of structural reforms in Ukraine as well as in maintaining macrofinancial stability and steady economic growth,” the NBU said.
The central bank paid attention other risks that the NBU took into consideration when making its previous monetary policy decision remain in place. In particular, the risk of rising threats to macrofinancial stability persists because of court rulings and pressure on the NBU. If materialized, these risks could worsen exchange rate and inflation expectations, and make it harder for Ukraine to access the international capital markets at a time when debt repayments are peaking.
According to the press service of the NBU, the following external risks remain relevant a complete halt of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, intensified trade tensions and more turbulent global financial markets and an escalation of the military conflict and new trade restrictions introduced by Russia.
As reported, the NBU began a cycle of easing monetary policy rates on April 26 this year, lowering the refinancing rate to 17.5% per annum from the level of 18% per annum, at which the central bank kept it from the beginning of September 2018. Then, in the middle of July and early September of the current year, the National Bank lowered the refinancing rate by 0.5 p.p. each time, and at the end of October lowered it by 1 p.p.
A summary of the discussion by Monetary Policy Committee members that preceded this decision will be published on December 23, 2019. The next meeting of the NBU Board on monetary policy issues will be held on January 30, 2020 as scheduled.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will reduce the refinancing rate to 17.5% from 18% from April 26, 2019, NBU Governor Yakiv Smolii has said at a briefing.
“The board of the National Bank decided to lower the refinancing rate to 17.5% per annum from April 26. Currently, a steady downward trend in inflation towards the 5% target allows the National Bank to begin the cycle of reducing the refinancing rate,” he said.
