Apple Inc. will surpass South Korea’s Samsung Electronics in global smartphone shipments in 2025 for the first time in 14 years, according to experts at Counterpoint Research.
According to the company’s forecast, iPhone shipments to the global market will reach 243 million units this year, while Samsung smartphone shipments will total around 235 million units.
Apple’s share of the global smartphone market at the end of the year is expected to be 19.4%, while Samsung’s will be 18.7%.
The optimistic forecasts for Apple are linked to the success of the iPhone 17 line, which the company unveiled in September. Counterpoint calls sales of this line of devices during the current holiday season “outstanding.”
Sales of iPhone 17 smartphones in the first four weeks after their launch were 12% higher than the previous iPhone 16 line, Counterpoint notes. In China, a key market for Apple, sales of these devices during the same period exceeded the previous line’s results by 18%.
Meanwhile, Samsung is facing difficulties due to growing competition from Chinese manufacturers in the budget and mid-range price segments, which is limiting the South Korean company’s sales.
Counterpoint analysts expect Apple to maintain its sales leadership in the global smartphone market until the end of 2029.
Smartphone shipments in China in the second quarter grew by 10% year-on-year to more than 70 million units, according to analyst firm Canalys. For the first time in history, the top five positions in the list of the largest smartphone vendors in China are held by local companies, said Canalys analyst Lucas Zhong.
The market leader was the vivo brand, which increased sales by 15% year-on-year to 13.1 million smartphones and gained a market share of 19%. OPPO took second place with a market share of 16%, despite a 1% decline in sales. HONOR was third (15% of the market, 10.7 million devices sold), Huawei was fourth (also 15%, 10.6 million), and Xiaomi (SPB: 1810) was fifth (14%, 10 million).
The American Apple Inc. sold only 9.7 million smartphones in China last quarter, which dropped it out of the top 5 leading suppliers. Its market share dropped to 14% from 15% in the first quarter and 16% in the second quarter of last year.
According to a preliminary estimate by another research company, International Data Corporation (IDC), smartphone sales in China in April-June increased by 8.9% year-on-year to 71.6 million. According to the company, Apple is also not among the top five leaders in the Chinese market.
