Global steel demand will remain virtually unchanged in 2026 at approximately 1.722 billion tonnes, but could increase by 1.7% in 2027 to 1.752 billion tonnes, according to the October Short Range Outlook released by the World Steel Association (Worldsteel).
As the Experts Club information and analytical center notes, Worldsteel’s new forecast highlights an increasingly noticeable divergence between China and the rest of the global market. While demand continues to decline in China, the recovery outside the country is gradually accelerating.
According to Worldsteel, steel demand outside China will grow by 1.5% in 2026 and by as much as 4% in 2027. It is the sheer size of the Chinese market that effectively conceals the stronger positive dynamics in other countries.
Alfonso Hidalgo Calcerrada, Chairman of the Worldsteel Economics Committee, noted that the recovery is progressing more slowly than expected in the spring. In April, the association anticipated moderate growth in global demand as early as 2026 and an increase of 2.2% in 2027. However, the forecast for next year has now been lowered to 1.7%.
China remains the main obstacle to growth in the global market. Steel demand in the country is expected to decline by 2% in 2026 and by another 1% in 2027. The reason remains weakness in the real estate market and infrastructure investment. Growth in industrial production and exports is not yet sufficient to fully offset the decline in these two largest areas of steel consumption.
India stands at the opposite end of the spectrum. It remains the world’s largest rapidly growing steel market: demand in the country is expected to increase by 7.9% in 2026 to 172.4 million tonnes, and by another 8% in 2027 to 186.2 million tonnes. The main drivers remain infrastructure construction, private real estate, industry, and renewable energy projects.
In developing countries excluding China, demand is forecast to increase by 1.9% in 2026 and by as much as 5.1% in 2027. Meanwhile, growth in ASEAN-5 will reach 5.2% in 2026, while Vietnam will approach steel consumption of around 30 million tonnes for the first time, thanks to intensive construction and a large-scale public investment program.
A completely different situation is emerging in the Persian Gulf countries. Following demand growth of 17.7% in 2025, Worldsteel expects a decline of approximately 11% in 2026 due to ongoing instability in the Middle East, delays in investment decisions, and the postponement of construction project launches. If the situation stabilizes, the association forecasts a recovery of 11.3% in 2027.
Worldsteel considers the resumption of industrial growth in developed economies to be one of the key trends of 2027. Additional steel demand is expected to be generated by investments in artificial intelligence and data centers, rising defense spending, the energy transition, infrastructure projects, and railway construction.
In the European Union, the recovery is being postponed for the time being. Worldsteel expects apparent steel consumption in the EU to decline by 0.3% in 2026 before increasing by 3.1% in 2027. The forecast for the European market has been revised downward by as much as 1.5 percentage points.
Worldsteel attributes the relatively strong performance of the EU in 2025 partly to inventory accumulation ahead of the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026. At the same time, the underlying indicators of European industry have proved weaker than expected: the construction recovery is progressing slowly, housing completions remain low, and the automotive industry continues to constrain demand.
The United States, by contrast, is expected to maintain positive momentum. Steel demand in the country could grow by 2% in 2026 and by approximately 1.5% in 2027. Worldsteel identifies investments in data centers, energy, renewable power generation, oil and gas infrastructure, and major industrial projects as the main sources of growth.
A moderate recovery is also expected in Japan and South Korea. In Japan, demand could increase by 0.9% in 2026 and by 1.7% in 2027, while in South Korea the corresponding figures are 1.8% and 1.3%. However, even after such growth, neither country will yet return to the consumption levels recorded before the latest downturn.
According to Experts Club, the global steel market is gradually shifting from a model in which global dynamics were determined primarily by China toward a much more geographically distributed demand structure. India, Southeast Asian countries, US infrastructure projects, and the expected recovery in Europe are becoming increasingly important sources of growth.
At the same time, the structure of steel consumption is also changing. Whereas large-scale residential construction in China was previously one of the main drivers, increasing amounts of steel are now required for energy infrastructure, data centers, defense projects, railways, and industrial equipment.
Nevertheless, Worldsteel remains cautious about 2027. The forecast was prepared using data available at the beginning of September 2026, while prolonged instability in the Middle East and possible new disruptions to energy and logistics supply chains remain the main risks to the global market.
Thus, 2026 is likely to be another year of stagnation for the global steel market, but growth outside China could accelerate significantly as early as 2027. At the same time, the geography of demand is becoming increasingly diversified, while infrastructure, energy, and new technological investments are gradually becoming the industry’s main structural growth drivers.
Source: Worldsteel, Short Range Outlook, October 2026.
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