Ukrainian exporters have already used almost 100% of the sugar export potential that was built into the forecast balance for the 2022/2023 marketing year, so to avoid a shortage of this product in the summer and autumn period, the government has limited its exports for the period from June 5 to September 15, the press service of the Economy Ministry said.
“Consumption of sugar grows in Ukraine in summer, so to avoid a shortage and price rises on the domestic market during this period, the government temporarily stops export quotas for this product,” the ministry said on its website on Thursday.
According to the State Customs Service, at the end of last week Ukraine exported more than 350 thousand tons of sugar and sugar products, which amounts to 95% of the forecast exports for 2022/2023 marketing year (MY).
As noted in the Ministry of Economy, the supply of the domestic market in 2022/2023 MY, taking into account the production of 1285 thousand tons of sugar and transitional residues, according to expert estimates, is 1776 thousand tons. To meet the needs of the domestic market in 2022/2023 yr Ukraine needs 1010 thousand tons. Export of sugar during the same period is expected at the level of 370 thousand tons.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers at its meeting on May 30 adopted a decree banning the export of sugar for the period from June 5 to September 15 this year.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine included sugar (trade item according to UKTVED 1701) to the list of goods, export of which is subject to licensing for the period from June 5 to September 15, 2023.
According to the representative of the Cabinet of Ministers in the Verkhovna Rada Taras Melnychuk in Telegram, the relevant decision was taken at a government meeting on Tuesday.
“Amended Annexes 1 and 5 to the resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of 27.12.2022 N 1466 “On approval of the lists of goods, exports and imports of which are subject to licensing and quotas for 2023”. Sugar has been included in Appendix 1 “Quotas for the goods subject to export licensing” of the decree ¹ 1466 with a volume of quota of 0 tons and a licensing period from June 5 to September 15, 2023,” he wrote.
At the same time, sugar is excluded from Annex 5 of the same decree “The list of goods, the export of which is subject to licensing.
Global raw sugar prices remain around $0.26 a pound on fears of supply cuts, Trading Economics reported.
That’s close to a high of more than 11 years (since October 2011) of $0.27 a pound reached in late April.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) in its May report sharply worsened its forecast for sugar oversupply in the 2022/23 crop year to 850,000 tons from 4.12 million tons a month earlier. This is due to a downward revision in expected supplies from key regions such as Europe, China, Thailand and India.
ISO estimates sugar production this year at 177.36 million tons, compared to the previous forecast of 180.43 million tons. Meanwhile, its global consumption will rise to 176.51 million tons.
“We’ve gone from an expected sugar surplus this year to no surplus at all,” believes Frank Jenkins, president of independent broker JSG Commodities.
Just a few months ago, he expected sugar production to exceed demand by about 4 to 6 million tons. “Because of crop losses in India, China, the European Union, Thailand and Mexico, those estimates have essentially dropped to a balance level, so there’s no real surplus to speak of,” said the expert, quoted by Barron’s.
“Unfavorable weather has become a much bigger problem for all agricultural products, including sugar,” believes Robin Shaw, an analyst at brokerage Marex. “The real enemy of sugar is drought,” and there are more of them around the world, he added.
Shaw predicts that sugar demand is likely to exceed production by 6 million to 7 million tons over the next three years. He previously expected a surplus of about 4 million tons this year.
To unfavorable weather, “you can add potential yield declines due to high fertilizer prices in the last couple of years, which is not helping the sugar market,” said John Stansfield, senior sugar analyst at consulting firm DNEXT Intelligence, John Stansfield.
About 80% of the world’s sugar production comes from sugar cane and 20% from beets, according to ISO. The largest producers are Brazil and India, as well as the EU and Thailand.
Ukrainian sugar producers have asked EU countries to reconsider the sugar export ban on domestic EU markets and resume it taking into account the sugar shortage in Europe, Nazar Mykhailovin, acting head of Ukrtsukor, said.
“Not all countries impose an embargo on Ukrainian products. We need a way through which we can sell exports of sugar. We have to forget about the sea route for some time, but the transit through the EU countries, particularly through Poland and Romania is needed,” he commented to Interfax-Ukraine agency about the situation with the export of Ukrainian sugar to the EU.
According to the industry association, during the period from June 2022 to March 2023 almost 99.9% of Ukrainian sugar was sold on the EU internal market.
The top countries that bought Ukrainian sugar in March 2023 included Romania, Poland, Hungary, Italy, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Croatia. Poland, one of the first to ban imports of Ukrainian sugar, bought 8,242 tons of the product from Ukraine, Mikhailovin said.
“Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has lost its sea export corridor, which has become inaccessible for Ukrainian sugar. Accordingly, the export was carried out mainly to European countries.
At the same time Mikhailovin reminded that due to the beginning of the war the EU made a decision, thanks to which and the presence of export potential Ukraine has the ability to export sugar to the EU domestic markets.
In the sugar beet sugar production season of the 2022 harvest, the factories produced 1.330 million tons of products, which fully met the needs of the domestic market and export potential, the industry association said.
“In the 2022/2023 marketing year, the export potential will depend on the area sown under sugar beet, weather conditions and yields in both Ukraine and Europe,” Mikhailovin said.
Ukraine managed to export 265 thousand tons of sugar in 7 months of the current marketing year (MY, September 2022 – August 2023), which is 4.8 times more than in the entire 2021-2022 marketing year, said Nazar Mykhailovyn, acting Chairman of the Board of the National Association of Sugar Producers of Ukraine Ukrtsukor.
“For the entire period of 2021/2022 MY, 55 thousand tons of sugar were exported. From September 1, 2022, to March 28, 2023, Ukraine increased exports by 4.8 times to 265 thousand tons,” he said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
According to Mikhailovin, in 2022, 23 Ukrainian sugar factories produced 1.33 million tons of sugar, while a year earlier 33 enterprises produced 1.45 million tons. “The reduction in sugar production by 120 thousand tons with 30% of production capacities not used was not critical for Ukraine. In addition, we had a surplus and significant carry-over balances from 2021/2022 MY in the amount of 491 thousand tons,” the head of the association said.
He reminded that as of the beginning of the war, sugar exports from Ukraine were suspended due to the hostilities. On June 5, 2022, the Cabinet of Ministers adopted a resolution to allow sugar exports under licenses issued by the Ministry of Economy. Due to the hostilities and the lack of seaports, Ukraine was forced to change the geography of exports. According to the European Union’s decision, Ukraine can ship sugar to Europe without tariff quotas and duties.
According to Mykhailovyn, due to drought and poor sugar beet harvest, as well as higher natural gas prices than in Ukraine, Europe produced less sugar, and it was more expensive than Ukrainian sugar. “Ukraine was able to sell sugar in Europe at a decent price,” he stated.
The government of Ukraine has abolished the need to obtain the approval of the State Reserve when issuing licenses by the Ministry of Economy to import raw cane sugar to Ukraine within the tariff quota.
The corresponding decision within the framework of the economy deregulation was taken by the government on Tuesday, as quoted by the Vice Prime Minister and Head of the Ministry of Economy Mykhailo Fedorov.
The issue of optimization of this agreement was previously considered by the interdepartmental working group on the accelerated revision of instruments of state regulation of economic activity, which was chaired by him and First Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of Economy Yulia Sviridenko.
As it was reported, the Interdepartmental Working Group on Accelerated Revision of the Instruments of State Regulation of Economic Activity was created by the government on January 13, 2023 with the purpose of simplifying the regulatory environment for business.
